Sunday, June 19, 2011

Dejota's 2020 Draft Grades

A few notes, I used the file immediately after the daft to grade. If a prospect has since jumped it will not improve your team's grade. Secondly, I took a bit of a different approach when scouting this year's draft and focused more heavily on skill projectability than talent or overall/vital differentials as in years past. Anyways, hope you enjoy and be sure to tune in Tuesday for the radio show going over the draft and the season at the mid point!

Arizona Diamondbacks
Grade: A-
Best Pick: SP Patrick Tuyet (1st Round, 10th Overall)

-Best draft in ARZ history
-Great job finding older (20+) guys who can help the club quickly

Atlanta Braves
Grade: B-
Best Pick: None

-B- because they acquired an Ace with their picks
-Set up their rotation to compete as early as 2021 by trading DPs
-See CHW Grade for more in-depth analysis

Baltimore Orioles
Grade: C-
Best Pick: Pete Donner (6th Round, 179th Overall)

-Traded picks away like Atlanta
-Peter was his only pick and nothing special
-Sinkovitz, Miller and Sandoval look better than most teams 1-5 results so C-

Boston Red Sox
Grade: B
Best Pick: T.J. Overstreet (1st Round, 16th Overall)

-Overstreet was a potential top 10 talent before his birthday in May
-Louthaine and Mcallister have some injury issues (Rounds 2&3)
-Found some potential gems in rounds 4-6

Chicago Cubs
Grade: C+
Best Pick: Watamaro Suzuki (1st Round, 23rd Overall)

-Suzuki reminds me of Prywes but with a bad glove
-Picks Garcia (2nd), Robinson (2nd), Wildman (3rd) - Overalls in 50s age in 20s...bad combo
-All his pitching won't make it to the pros, but the ones that do should have nice vitals

Chicago White Sox
Grade: B-
Best Pick: LF Tyrese Davis (3rd Round, 77th overall)

They deserve a paragraph. When was the last time you saw a team atop their division part with their Ace? Well that's exactly what JHC did when he shipped Lomax (and stuff) for the first peak in each round from the Braves and Sid Icasiano. Basically proven for potential across the board for the White Sox including Icasiano who's struggled through his first 200 major league ABs, but has the minor league track record and vitals of, at least, an above average player.

After you include his DPs from ATL here's the final Trade

ATL Receives:
SP Stan Lomax (93)
1B LaMark Thomas (70/83)
RP Corey Bretton (77/86)
LF Martin Greenwalt (71/88)

CHW Receives:
LF Sid Icasiano (89/95)
SP Chorye Spoon (80)
SP Jeff Trembath (56/97) - Was the 5th best pitcher IMO, went too early but incredible upside
1B Dave Wallace (63/90) - Good pick but drafted a better 1B later in the draft
SP Nelson Gajou (62/80) - Awesome pick, has a lot to overcome to be great but solid!
C Angel Carrilles (68/81) - Should hit and not be a liability behind the plate
LF Donald McDowell (61/80) - Guaranteed major league but bench or starting material TBD
RF Robb Cross (60/75) - Bday in May, potential Steal

I don't think this helps us come up with any ground-breaking conclusions, but it does help us see (potentially) what each GM had in mind. In Atlanta, it's pretty obvious, he was looking at this from the bigger picture. He has 3 Starters with some amazing vitals and remaining upside but no clear front runner to become a true ace. Having a young, cheap Ace with team control is priceless, especially when combined with other young pitching. For Atlanta, we'll look back on this trade as the moment they started to reassert themselves in the AL East.

With the injuries to Thomas Neal and King Felix that 4 game lead isn't exactly secure. Chicago has been in a rebuild mode and simply doesn't have the depth to weather the loss of one of the leagues best pitchers and best hitters at once. I know he follows probabilities too closely for his own good and I'm guessing with their losses that the probability of a playoff berth dropped below the level he was comfortable. He received a haul for his ace and has reinforced their foundation, something you always want to see with a young and upcoming team. Panicking and trying to fill holes is how you end up in Seattle's situation and it seems clear (now) that JHC wanted none of the figgy pudding.

With that in mind I think it's clear that both GMs can win in this deal and we really won't have to wait much longer than 2021-22 to find out. Will Lomax take Atlanta from cellar dweller to their (rightful?) position atop the AL East? Will JHC's roll of the dice turn into a dynasty that completely changes the perception of the AL Central for the next decade? This is what I'm guessing both GMs had in mind when making this move. We now return you to your normally scheduled draft grades....

Cincinnati Reds
Grade: A+
Best Pick: 3B Marv Eason (1st Round, 3rd Overall)

-Like his buddy JHC, traded away his ace for more picks but not as dramatically (sorry jps no paragraph for you, come back one year!)
-Landed the best hitter in the draft, should be a great 3/4 punch with Steve Miller
-Didn't grade last rounds since he didn't pick
-Eason, Genter, Greensite, Thurston, Page and Kertsman all but guaranteed major leaguers on my board...silent but deadly top 3 rounds and with multiple picks in each round...wow
-Will had his back in the final 3 rounds as well, but A+ is all JPS'...wow again.

Cleveland Indians
Grade:B-
Best Pick: SS Kirk DeVane (4th Round, 102nd Overall)

-Solid if unspectacular across the board really
-I really liked his 3rd-5th round picks
-Sanquiche and Hyte have some flaws but could be diamonds in the rough

Colorado Rockies
Grade: C+
Best Pick: 1B Mike Chitty (Trade)

-You heard it here first, Chitty could win that division for Nokes
-Of his actual DPs, only Toombs and Woelfel made sense at that point in the draft IMO
-Could've done better at the same pos. when he drafted Barker (2nd) and Ramirez (4th)

Detroit Tigers
Grade: B
Best Pick: 2B Vinny Fortiz (6th Round, 168th Overall)

-In a draft full of power MIers landing Vinny late was a great value
-Singer looks really good but could be another coming of Ty Auxier (Great GB% but not enough talent to go with it)
-I thought he also got nice value with 3B Guidero (3rd) and SP Gonzaba (4th)

Florida Marlins
Grade: C-
Best Pick: RP Jamie Shadwell (2nd Round, 55th Overall)

-First Thought: Hi, My name is Hokey and I don't care for Contact, Defense or Health
-Also drafted 2 power MIers (2nd/5th), Dearnest Johnson has health issues and value issues in this draft
-Bunning could be a future strike out leader or a future big-time bust, hard to tell
-Shadwell (2nd) and Uzanoff (3rd) saved his grade from being lower

Houston Astros
Grade: B
Best Pick: SS Peter Conwell (1st Round, 22nd Overall)

-Failed to come away with a major pitching prospect...again...
-I LOVE my offense picks. I may have found my entire future IF with some luck: 1B Arndt (6th), 2B Mezquita (3rd), SS Conwell (1st), 3B Nufio (3rd)
-I CLEARLY overvalued Mezquita and Nufio
-A buch of B+ pitching but nothing that stands out as a potential future Ace which my farm lacks completely.

Kansas City Royals
Grade: --
Best Pick: --

-Sold picks for cash to maintain payroll

Los Angeles Angels
Grade: C
Best Pick: RF Jose Crolula (4th Round, 97th Overall)

-Brian Smith could make a great starter but GB% leaves a lot to be desired. Maybe too early for him
-Crolula could end up being a really good DH if he can find a little more upside
-Almost every pick has some (fatal) flaw and some projectable skill. Feast or famine draft for Jamie

Los Angeles Dodgers
Grade: C+
Best Pick: RP Yoshizumi Ii (TRADE)

- Like Colorado this trade could catapult him to divisional favorite
- Minors are starting to look extremely barren, however

Milwaukee Brewers
Grade: B
Best Pick: LF Joseph Powell (2nd Round, 35th Overall)

- Gongalez was a solid choice, especially if you prefer power arms (to, say the Vails of the world)
- Poez has a birthday coming up and projects as a reliever, not 5th overall worthy IMO
- Powell slipped a little IMO and has consistently improved over the past 3 years

Minnesota Twins
Grade: B
Best Pick: SP Jayson Reiter (1st Round, 13th Overall)

- Tons of maneuvering resulted in 3 1sts and 1 4th only
- Reiter has some GB% issues and a potential HR problem but could become a true Ace
- Zimmerman/Acevedo (and all Power oriented CFers) don't project well IMO

New York Mets
Grade: A-
Best Pick: TIE: RP Larry Moyne (3rd Round, 81st Overall), 1B Paul Hanover (4th Round, 111th Overall)

- Allen Thomas (1st), at only 18, strikes me a true wild card. He could become great or flame out fast
- Carlo Elizarraraz (2nd), Could be the 2nd coming of PIT 2019 1st Rounder Potter or a perennial gold glove contender at the hot corner
- Both Moyne and Hanover could easily become late round steals and are very projectable

New York Yankees
Grade: C+
Best Pick: LF Sanetomo Kijimuta (1st Round, 28th Overall)

- Shouldn't they have been selling these picks for cash? (major knock on grade)
- Kijimuta only needs one small jump to have middle of the order potential
- Huckle (2nd) went too early but catchers are hard to find
- Bentaro (3rd), Huckle (2nd) and Kesterson (1st) leave a lot to be desired but very solid otherwise

Oakland Athletics
Grade:
Best Pick: SP Gregg Mainwaring (TRADE)

- Once again moving DPs to acquire a potential divisional game-changer. Gotta love it!
- All 4 picks used power as their main weapon
- Villiger (3rd) was a great value and potential gold glove winner

Philadelphia Phillies
Grade: C-
Best Pick: 1B Kurt Wilson (1st Round, 19th Overall)

-Like LAD, minors are in bad shape and in worse shape after this draft
-Wilson (1st) looks like a very boring, average 1B prospect being held up by upside

Pittsburgh Pirates
Grade: B
Best Pick: SP Jeff Vail (1st Round, 6th Overall)

- Really solid top 3 Choices, but once again all have a potentially fatal flaw
- Last year seemed to reach and try to go with solid choices, seemed to switch gears and choice more feast or famine guys, I kinda liked that
- Best part of his draft: Could end up with the best SP and two best Relievers
- Later rounds left a lot to be desired (5th and 6th)

San Diego Padres
Grade: D- for no list or attendance
Best Pick: Moot

-Auto drafted...boring to analyze because it's meaningless just dumb luck

San Francisco Giants
Grade: C-
Best Pick: RF Edmund Garcia (6th Round, 156th overall)

- Clearly a focus on power hitters in this draft
- Didn't like selecting 3 low contact OFers with first 3 picks
- Edmund Garcia (6th) could end up being the most well rounded OFer he drafted
- With all the OFers in his system I don't understand drafting more, look for some of PRs/Mav's old draftees to be on the move I'm guessing

Seattle Mariners
Grade: B
Best Pick: C Caleb Midwinter (3rd Round, 74th Overall)

- Ainza looks solid but low GB% makes him a bit of a reach at 14
- Nice job by HB to sell of DPs and draft one of the drafts better catchers with the most upside

St. Louis Cardinals
Grade: A-
Best Pick: 1B Billy Rodgers (1st Round, 26th Overall)

- Billy Rodgers could be the biggest masher in this draft, nice 1st Round Reach IMO
- Picked off some of the best middle round power arms, again nice reaches
- Another GM focusing on primarily power with their picks but very well done by GodsDisciple

Tampa Bay Rays
Grade: B+
Best Pick: SP Brandon Robertson (1st Round, 24th Overall)

- Carlo Gonzalez was the odd pick out, didn't like him early in the 2nd (I think this was my fault), I think he was what prevented an 'A' grade. So if it was my screw up please consider this an 'A' grade
- However, I think SP Robertson (1st) was a great reach
- Did a great job of picking missed values (solid vitals, high peak for pick): LHP Castillo (2nd), 3B Poso (3rd), LF Veinzquez (4th), SP Davis (5th)
- Only Robertson really stands out but a bunch of really solid high floor/decent ceiling guys

Texas Rangers - See SDP - Has Since Been Replaced

Toronto Blue Jays
Grade: B+
Best Pick:

- Felt 1st two picks were poor values for their draft position. Matterson (1st) has control issues and Berriero (2nd) may never hit well enough for his eye and glove to mask his bat
- Furukawa (3rd) through Briddon (5th) (8 total picks) were insanely good values however
- 2nd Year in a row Andy seemed to reach early/late and find solid value in the middle rounds
- Could fill out half a future mlb roster with his draft alone I think.

Washington Nationals
Grade: C+
Best Pick: SP Jeremy Hess (4th Round, 110th Overall)

- Drafting 2 RPs with the top 2 picks is a tough pill to swallow if you're a fan
- 2 Potential steals in Hess (4th) and Wells (5th) but not much else to like
- Vlad Mortiz (3rd) is a great example of a MIer who should've fallen due to so many power MIers in this draft

Any feedback, hate mail is greatly appreciated. Again, tune in Tuesday to fire back live for our 1st Radio show of 2020

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