Wednesday, March 7, 2012

First Class Baseball America: Top 10 Prospects



We're finally down to the top ten prospects in the game. Who's the cream of the crop?

99-89 Elite:
- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer


89-87 Very Good:
- This player will be a perennial All-Star, #1 starter (#2 starter on championship teams), or quality closer


87-85 Good:
- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality #2/3 starter, or second-tier closer


85-83 Above Average:
- This player's overall production will consistently meet or exceed the league average for his position


83-81 Average:
- This player is a solid to average everyday player on non-championship teams, most #4/5 starters, or set-up man


81-79 Below Average:
- This player is a fringe everyday player and is where you'll find most of your backups, some #5 starters, and most middle relievers


#10 Dushawn Davis, SP (Indians)
Strengths
Movement, Health, and Overall Repertoire

Weaknesses
Power and Lack of Dominant Pitch

-- Other than being stuck in Cleveland, Davis has a lot to be excited about. He should develop great movement and a very balanced repertoire. His control should become league average and combined with his slightly above average endurance for a starter he should be a 200 innings guy. The fact that he doesn't have one go-to pitch or the ability to put batters away will hurt, but with good defense behind him he could be Ace quality.

#09 Brian Becker, 3B (Cardinals)
Strengths
Eye and Defense

Weaknesses
Contact and Speed

-- He and Phil McMullin could be battling it out for the NL Glove in years to come. He's just a superb defender. Offensively he isn't bad either. He has solid power, can walk a good amount, and should be under 100 strikeouts per season. His problem will be hitting for average. I think he could struggle to even consistently hit for a .250 average. Speed too, is a deficiency, but at the hot corner who cares?

#08 Uchimaro Iwahashi, SP (Royals)
Strengths
Endurance, Control, and Repertoire

Weaknesses
Movement

-- I know, to much surprise, Mike actually does have a top ten worthy prospect. Iwahashi's control could become elite and paired with above average endurance will see him pitch deep into games. He does have a fine repertoire with two plus pitches and two additional "show me" pitches. His lone true weakness is a big one. Players with poor movement seem to get beat up and I doubt it'll improve enough not to be an issue. There's a lot to like about Iwahashi, but he could also end up like Kevin Slowey.

#07 Billy Crum, SP (Brewers)
Strengths
Control, Movement, and Fastball

Weaknesses
Health and Repertoire Depth

-- Crum will turn 20 in January and already has just below league average control and movement for starters. Overall he should be very competent in all three skill categories and additionally has a good fastball. However, his repertoire depth is a bit of an issue. He should have two plus pitches, but most Ace potential starters will either have a stronger third pitch or a better second pitch. Health is a clear weakness. No one wants to see their Ace only healthy for 24 or 25 starts per season.

#06 Eric Malogran, SS (Cardinals)
Strengths
Eye and Defense

Weaknesses
Power and Health

-- He could possibly win a Gold Glove right now. That's how good his defense is. He walks a lot and overall has fantastic plate discipline. One might say contact is a strength, but with his low strikeouts, I doubt he'll hit for a great average. His weaknesses are few, but glaring. Duane Kuiper might have more power than Malogran and health has got to be a major concern. The Cardinals have a good amount of talent on this list. The question is, "will they do anything with it?"

#05 Jay Mantle, SP (Angels)
Strengths
Movement, Fastball, and Changeup

Weaknesses
Power and Lack of Third Pitch

-- Mantle is the only one in the top ten who'll still be a teenager when the 2027 season opens. He should have absolute amazing movement when he hits his peak form. He has what should be a great fastball-change combo, but his slider will be nothing better than a "show me" pitch. Another issue he has is that he relies on his defense to pick him up. With the Angels, it shouldn't be a problem, but pitchers who can record outs themselves is always a plus. Really these are weaknesses that can be tolerated.

#04 Brandon Zimmerman, 1B (Pirates)
Strengths
Contact, Eye, and Glovework

Weaknesses
Power, Speed, and Health

-- Zimmerman isn't the traditional first baseman. He takes a Dustin Pedroia approach at the plate and isn't a big time power bat (we'll wait for Peter to collect himself). His ability at first base will save a lot of errant throws. If his health can stand up, Zimmerman seems to be the guy that'll end up like many thought Casey Kotchman would be (.300/.375/.475 with great defense).

#03 Murray McManaman, CF (Dodgers)
Strengths
Power, Eye, Fielding, and Health

Weaknesses
Contact and Arm

-- When I look at McManaman I think of one thing-- what Grady Sizemore could've been if wasn't for the injuries. While McManaman is more of a pure power threat than Sizemore, they both share the same overall production projection and both are great defenders with a lack of a good arm. I only say contact is a weakness because of the high strikeouts, not that he'll necessarily have problems with a batting average. If his 2026 cup of coffee was any indication, he can have an average well below .250 and still put up a good OPS.

#02 Bo Smith, SP (Rangers)
Strengths
Power, Movement, and Repertoire

Weaknesses
Home Runs and Health

-- Has anyone realized this is the Rangers first prospect on the list? They sure do go big or go home. Smith has fantastic power and movement with one of the best repertoire's you'll find. He has three definite plus pitches and a fourth that could be close to average. Home runs might be an issue, but with his ability to get batters out, it may just be a few scattered solo shots. A big problem is the injuries he's already had, mainly the big elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery this past season. Though in this day and age it seems like a routine surgery and the Rangers are expecting him to compete for a rotation spot this spring.

#01 Giovanni Villareda, SP (Phillies)
Strengths
Movement and Repertoire

Weaknesses
None

-- The Phillies cap off the list with the best prospect and the most prospects to grace the top 100 with their ninth player on the list. Overall Villareda is a very balanced pitcher. He should wind up with 80+ control and power to go along with his already very good movement. His repertoire features a great splitter and has balance with a good fastball, average changeup, and developing slider. One might say health is a weakness of his, but he's shown no signs of it holding him back so far and should jump into the low 70s, which is tolerable.

For a complete recap:

RankTeamPlayer Name
PosAgeScore
10CLEDavis, Dushawn
SP2087.40
9STLBecker, Brian
3B2387.62
8KCRIwahashi, Uchimaro
SP2287.76
7MILCrum, Billy
SP1987.91
6STLMalorgan, Eric
SS2188.36
5LAAMantle, Jay
SP1988.37
4PITZimmerman, Brandon
1B2189.46
3LADMcManaman, Murray
CF2290.94
2TEXSmith, Bo
SP2292.48
1PHIVillareda, Giovanni
SP2093.13

Up Next: Top Farm Systems...

No comments:

Post a Comment