Thursday, November 8, 2012

Why Movement Isn't All It's Cracked Up To Be

The greatest thing you can do with Mogul is start up your own single player mode and go through the edit player process of the predicted stats. From there you can figure out what makes Mogul tick. You'll find at times a player's ratings don't realistically suggest his projected performance.

You'll find in the pitching predicted stats Power and Movement work against each other. For example, if you give a pitcher 50 more strikeouts (with changing nothing else) his Movement will go down. This is why pitchers with elite Power and Movement (90+) are rare.

In this league it's obvious "80" has become the standard number people want to at least see somewhere in a pitcher's ratings. The higher, the better, right? Well, not exactly.

I began thinking about a player I had (Brent Ruediger) and a player I attempted to trade for (Brian Singer). While they are solid pitchers, I had always felt they never pitched up to their Movement ratings since both have considerably high career OBA. So, I decided to isolate ratings and see what they look like when you remove the inflation.

Control = Walks
Power = Strikeouts
Movement = Hits and Home Runs

The results below are taken from pitchers actual career stats. SPs must have at least 450 IP and RPs must have 150 IP. The last two columns look deeper into where the pitcher gets his Movement from - Home Runs or Hits.

The end results are clear. While this doesn't take stadium effects into account, the results shows that low Power pitchers consistently give up more Hits or Home Runs than their Movement suggests.

PlayerTeam
BB/9K/9HR/9H/9OBA
CtlPwrMovMov-HRMov-H
Ainza, Gaétan---2.777.941.078.36.2408187867486
Ballou, Chris---3.195.260.959.34.2617770787974
Brodt, Willis---3.936.330.6710.23.2777277798865
Camardan, Joél---3.848.560.918.38.2417291918086
Clapsaddle, Dennis---2.807.550.738.18.2378185998688
Claussen, Denny---3.595.601.5410.51.2887473425859
Cortes, Leon---3.854.860.7511.40.3057268608549
Coulthard, Todd---3.025.241.499.10.2587970616076
Diaz, Javy---3.355.670.919.25.2627673798074
Endreson, Aaron---4.209.191.178.92.2506995767181
Fontela, Giovanni---3.675.470.529.08.2597472949476
Geist, Matt---2.576.280.898.98.2568277838177
Gongolez, Victor---4.968.521.218.71.2496391767081
Hess, Jeremy---3.866.271.2410.17.2797277576864
Hobbs, David---3.426.661.149.91.2747679647267
Hudson, Scott---3.824.520.9010.49.2887266648059
Jeter, James---3.737.951.448.59.2467387696183
Lomax, Stan---4.318.880.587.99.23569931069289
Lovegrove, Sean---3.206.551.4610.71.2887778446059
MacIntyre, Edmund---2.934.851.199.99.2808068597064
Mackellar, Trey---3.525.810.689.94.2737574818868
Maes, Vladimir---3.736.371.249.15.2567377716877
Manning, Clay---3.455.001.039.16.2607569767675
Mathias, Josh---3.866.241.6110.11.2797277445564
McHaffie, Adam---3.997.641.139.51.2647185707273
McShannachan, Don---3.095.510.988.65.2517872827780
Pincay, Alex---3.448.241.258.87.2527589726880
Plumb, Damon---4.266.140.979.86.2756976697866
Pope, Pat---6.819.961.118.94.25049100797381
Priddy, Paul---3.336.570.738.31.2417679978686
Ramirez, Vernon---3.146.370.889.97.2767877728166
Regaldo, Micah---2.605.841.099.54.2688274697470
Remillard, Travis---5.006.721.3310.23.2806380546564
Rowell, Rob---3.466.950.959.15.2607581787875
Samson, Lou---2.573.711.2411.54.3078261416848
Shinault, Jeff---2.825.870.519.58.2668074919472
Shoffner, Garrett---2.846.351.248.57.2458077776884
Smith, Sean---4.257.501.588.82.2476984645682
Stewart, Dick---3.216.290.768.78.2507777918581
Sturgeon, Philip---5.205.200.729.84.2756170788766
Suter, Brian---3.144.810.7710.08.2797868748564
Thibeau, Jason---3.006.911.2410.06.2767981596866
Tinall, Raul---3.065.731.149.49.2637873707273
Topciy, Brett---4.518.091.298.53.2456788756684
Troncoso, Fernando---3.376.851.108.35.2407680857386
Vafiadis, Jeffery---4.857.581.028.04.2346485917690
Valtir, Houston---4.688.161.589.22.2606689565675
Verganor, Alberto---3.587.561.298.81.2507485726781
Warden, Andy---6.406.160.448.69.2565276999677
Weaver, Matthew---4.116.151.067.87.2307076927592
Wenda, Jordan---4.659.291.458.26.2386696736188
White, Owen---3.797.200.859.05.2567382848277
White, Will---2.764.641.018.89.2568167797677
Wildman, Ryan---4.387.850.988.13.2366887917789
Winchester, Joshua---5.436.410.709.91.2766078788766
Younger, Vince---3.546.360.988.66.2507577837781
Zorros, Ezra---3.706.561.148.75.2527379777280
Ramirez, EdgarARI3.827.011.248.92.2527281736880
Sather, AdamARI3.406.580.859.36.2637679808273
Varola, CarlosARI6.147.541.699.89.2735485455368
Ward, ErikARI2.335.781.349.98.2768474566566
Winegar, ScottARI3.716.871.268.87.2537380726879
Epner, TimATL3.835.971.009.96.2757275687766
Pladera, NorbertoATL3.318.631.369.41.2647791626473
Bonin, CraigBAL3.124.781.359.73.2687867606470
Byler, DarrenBAL3.555.551.108.86.2517572787380
Fitrakis, MikeBAL2.756.211.189.05.2568176737077
Parington, DamienBAL2.865.111.189.81.2748069627067
Trandel, ShawnBAL3.558.411.049.36.2637590747573
Anthony, BradBOS2.596.780.608.79.2518280969180
Attaway, GregBOS3.158.251.038.02.2327889927691
Diaz, EdBOS3.345.911.029.92.2737674697668
Gardner, ToddBOS4.697.810.908.66.2476586888082
Hellesto, MorenoBOS2.957.401.148.73.2517984777280
Landreau, PaulBOS5.4910.330.777.48.220591021088598
Monger, JeffBOS3.226.740.399.64.2697780939870
Reddan, DamienBOS4.206.451.7310.37.2826978385162
Reiter, JaysonBOS2.047.711.078.97.2538786787479
Santarelli, WilliamBOS3.228.590.978.46.2417791897886
Smith, BoBOS3.358.500.707.49.22276911098797
Snodgrass, JacobBOS3.837.681.418.13.2367286766289
Spenser, DavisBOS3.877.461.388.19.2377284776388
Salcido, PedroCHC3.086.231.099.33.2627876727474
Stuit, BillCHC3.097.431.048.86.2537884797579
Enriquez, RicardoCHW2.284.951.098.95.2558568777478
Lydell, PaulCHW3.785.900.519.75.2757374859466
McGuire, ScottCHW4.896.670.488.32.24264791059585
Tuyet, PatrickCHW1.687.040.868.78.2509082888281
Warneke, BrettCHW3.305.321.318.40.2387771786688
Weston, KevinCHW3.557.071.308.95.2597582676676
Budisantoso, EfrainCIN3.097.040.958.80.2517882847880
Rawls, WillCIN3.266.011.069.53.2647775727573
Weaver, MattCIN3.238.250.758.20.2387789988688
Coztana, FranciscoCLE3.237.541.118.65.2477785807382
Jenson, BillCLE3.176.171.0610.14.2787876647565
Strubbe, JoeCLE4.368.631.398.53.2416891746386
Abcejo, FredericCOL3.266.090.759.02.2597776868676
Christner, RyanCOL2.556.620.798.21.2418379958486
Feldman, BruceCOL2.954.311.2110.03.2807964586964
Nemchyonok, TimCOL2.825.350.9310.67.2908071627958
Ouintana, AdolfoCOL3.267.780.858.45.2447786918284
Poez, EdmundCOL4.3711.240.746.85.2056810811786106
Sakamoto, RyuCOL3.837.020.869.09.2587281838276
Zlotnick, SeanCOL3.217.810.618.33.24077861029086
Carretero, ArmandoDET3.529.431.148.36.2407596837286
Hyte, DaveDET4.937.430.979.57.2666484747872
Lammas, DerekDET2.338.380.907.71.22684901008094
Robinson, TayeDET3.698.441.248.34.2397490806887
Trembath, JeffDET2.348.581.048.03.2338491917590
Voss, ChrisDET3.466.311.208.26.2407577817086
Wadley, BorisDET5.228.211.449.26.2616189616174
Charlton, ArthurFLA2.437.751.086.90.205848610574106
Craven, ShaneFLA2.666.720.797.68.22582801048495
Jackson, LevonFLA1.966.600.477.78.22887791149593
Porteous, LeighFLA2.667.040.868.45.2428281928285
Radway, IsaacFLA3.087.850.766.46.195788712385112
MacBeath, EricHOU2.634.740.629.44.2668267879072
Sink, JustinHOU2.484.831.189.68.2738368637068
Tapani, ZachHOU4.218.631.228.21.2366991836989
Threadgold, JamesHOU2.6311.351.137.47.22082108957298
Woodcock, KurtHOU1.856.170.718.15.23788761008788
Deel, RobKCR2.686.540.998.46.2438278877785
Kerry, EricKCR2.354.121.018.99.2578463787677
Lucey, SebastienKCR3.775.210.6410.40.2897370738958
MacDonald, TomKCR5.179.610.828.10.2366298978389
Macies, SantosKCR2.789.050.527.32.216819411994100
Manarez, LeonKCR2.576.470.518.43.24482781039484
Mark, ZackKCR1.955.660.888.57.2468773898183
Raines, JimKCR2.756.681.259.23.2598179696876
Ruediger, BrentKCR1.474.810.979.61.2689168737870
Widdup, JacobKCR2.309.070.637.72.22785941099094
Delacruz, JoséLAA2.484.021.269.96.2768363586866
Horton, TobeyLAA1.675.250.768.50.2469070938583
Kesterson, RyanLAA3.039.540.927.99.2337997958090
Mantle, JayLAA2.825.970.328.23.241807511210186
McLaughlin, MasonLAA2.587.370.667.44.22182841118997
Pena, JavyLAA2.515.880.609.30.2638374899173
Robinson, JayLAA1.856.180.917.78.2288876988093
Swint, ArneLAA2.665.441.3411.56.3028272416551
Williams, DemontLAA2.004.930.688.35.2428768988885
Barnett, BradyLAD3.095.780.8310.30.2817874718363
Bunning, JeffLAD3.949.071.168.52.2447294807184
Cook, BrentLAD4.947.620.868.82.2526485868280
Dunham, JeffLAD4.909.210.909.58.2606495808075
Faulkner, JeffLAD3.307.840.688.59.2457786968884
Buckun, JamieMIL3.436.160.878.73.2517676878180
Crum, BillyMIL3.626.670.858.06.2347479978290
McDonald, CodyMIL3.256.350.897.94.2337777968190
Thompson, RichMIL3.007.901.018.94.2527987817680
Torres, TomaszMIL2.093.921.299.76.2748662586667
Wearmouth, JeffMIL3.749.091.028.06.2347394917690
Garcia, GalenoMIN3.737.051.089.20.2617382737474
Lopez, AlfredoMIN2.835.790.419.46.2698074929870
Remes, JoélMIN4.655.980.748.90.2536675908679
Thorne, BarryMIN2.705.341.049.25.2628171747574
Violette, ReedMIN3.028.191.149.21.2587989737276
Belovsky, MathewNYM2.616.420.737.87.23182781038692
Huckle, GlennNYM3.445.481.067.83.2327572917591
Jimenez, JoséNYM3.343.880.559.11.2647662909373
Kirsopp, GaryNYM3.298.650.627.37.22077921139098
McCliverty, TravisNYM3.447.360.568.28.24375841029285
Pagano, DustinNYM3.325.821.258.90.2547674716878
Permenter, KevinNYM3.718.130.838.03.2327388998391
Sampson, DaveNYM2.486.350.769.09.2568377888577
Strickland, EricNYM3.907.100.568.62.24772821009282
Thomas, AllenNYM2.355.820.918.54.2478474888082
Ashe, GlennNYY3.087.330.828.99.2567883868377
Autrey, MatthewNYY3.424.750.9010.48.2877667658060
Fenwick, ClaudeNYY3.327.070.839.53.2657682808372
Greensite, VaughnNYY2.957.121.018.06.2357982917689
Hunssinger, HolgerNYY3.565.591.079.90.2757572667466
Matteson, CoryNYY4.249.120.988.18.2356994927889
Mitford, DaveNYY3.095.191.079.80.2717870687469
Tincher, JustinNYY2.084.511.229.19.2618666686974
Verploegh, ShaneNYY4.298.751.619.32.2596992565576
Wolper, GrahamNYY4.309.801.018.35.2396999887687
Young, AaronNYY3.277.230.968.78.2507783847881
Cote, JimOAK2.228.261.008.07.2338589927790
Dugas, ArthurOAK3.118.311.128.22.2387889857388
McDaniel, ChrisOAK2.776.331.138.31.2428177837285
Rodriguez, JamieOAK2.095.641.2710.00.2748673596767
Arikawa, RichPHI2.258.981.038.14.2358594907689
Brett, JeffPHI2.615.810.898.90.2548274848178
Cuneo, AngelPHI3.836.120.878.28.2377276958188
Greene, LeonPHI3.236.540.758.70.2507778918581
Louate, VladPHI3.636.891.169.00.2587481727176
Macilvride, ZachPHI3.777.941.178.02.2327387877191
McCullar, LucasPHI2.305.820.627.66.22885741089093
Orge, GeraldoPHI2.756.910.548.32.24081811059386
Teepe, AdamPHI3.079.280.948.30.2367895937989
Villareda, GiovanniPHI2.828.900.516.84.206809312594106
Wakisaka, FujifusaPHI3.827.541.088.26.2377285877488
Youngs, ChrisPHI4.209.131.397.38.2186995876399
Alma, OscarPIT2.804.940.989.66.2708168727769
Benjamin, JackPIT3.116.770.919.47.2657880778072
Coldiron, WillPIT2.904.781.119.85.2748067657367
Davis, DushawnPIT3.176.351.1010.16.2777877647365
Iwahashi, UchimaroPIT2.447.241.108.49.2438483837385
Lingrell, VicentePIT3.087.371.648.76.2507884605481
Luck, BrianPIT2.455.870.668.50.2468374978983
Pavilaitis, CameronPIT2.274.771.029.23.2668567737672
Sadlier, AdamPIT2.767.100.717.99.23481821028790
Arnold, JoeSDP2.686.300.568.27.24282771039285
Colley, BrianSDP2.639.000.867.53.22182941048297
Deforest, BryanSDP1.954.860.928.58.2468768888083
Donohue, TerrySDP4.799.910.878.76.2496599888181
Fileto, CarloSDP2.638.430.957.70.2258290997995
Fractenberg, JamesSDP2.514.860.928.62.2488368868082
Gonzaba, AlfonsoSDP2.466.590.588.71.2518379979280
Jackson, AlanSDP3.417.480.556.71.205768412493106
Kearsey, AaronSDP2.456.460.888.53.2458378908184
Luquis, EfrainSDP3.207.170.779.42.2657782828572
Mariani, AaronSDP2.548.221.178.66.2478389787182
Plasencia, GaetanSDP3.728.220.637.66.22773891099094
Smith, BrianSDP2.168.410.927.00.209869010980104
Tista, LeonSDP6.327.181.138.36.2375282857288
Dickerson, ChrisSEA1.718.561.048.38.2418991867586
Draper, JeffSEA2.706.500.608.15.23881781039188
Fimbrez, RafaelSEA3.407.441.178.71.2477684787182
Koda, IchiroSEA2.639.581.227.71.2258297896995
Metrock, TomSEA3.517.801.068.24.2377586887588
Miller, KevinSEA5.138.570.888.45.2416291928186
Sanchez, WilfredoSEA4.108.391.208.90.2547090737078
Tuda, DunstanSEA3.205.531.248.84.2547772726878
Dorton, KennethSFG3.697.621.799.14.2577385504977
Fairthorne, BrianSFG2.615.961.098.96.2558275767478
Wilkie, DevinSFG3.215.321.189.61.2687771667170
Wolfson, NathanielSFG2.265.241.038.63.2498570827681
Doby, SeanSTL2.889.000.435.82.179809414397121
Joyce, MikeSTL3.407.600.897.48.22476851018196
Soutsos, MaxSTL1.788.160.657.43.22089891128998
Telon, GustavoSTL2.615.230.888.81.2548270848178
McComish, AdamTBR3.166.880.959.27.2627881777974
Newton, AlanTBR5.026.831.118.95.2556380767378
Townson, PaulTBR4.668.911.088.39.2436693847485
Williams, TravanisTBR3.777.781.339.15.2577386676577
Bosworth, CoreyTOR2.257.100.637.81.23185821079092
Castilla, AlejandroTOR1.976.641.108.21.2388779867388
Ciuffreda, ChrisTOR3.065.730.918.60.2497973868081
Duff, BrianTOR2.575.031.108.98.2578269757377
Fibbin, PaulTOR2.255.220.859.70.2718570768269
Hoving, TomTOR2.697.191.347.77.2318182816592
Ontario, FernandoTOR2.796.380.588.40.24381771019285
Poland, MikeTOR4.128.450.847.69.22470901038296
Shuman, MaxTOR3.0910.000.716.67.2027810012087108
Singer, BrianTOR2.264.360.6910.21.2828565758862
Beer, DaveWSN2.306.021.109.08.2588575757376
Nejin, CraigWSN3.667.610.957.61.22374851007996
Tibuni, AlbertusWSN3.026.160.658.70.2497976958981
Wilkinson, T.V.WSN2.066.410.878.80.2528778868180

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