Tuesday, September 3, 2013

The Curious Case of Leon Manarez

38 year-old RHP Leon Manarez has had one of the most bizarre careers in the history of baseball. Manarez made All-Star teams for both the Padres and Royals due to his mix of excellent control and a very good curveball - and even was a Gold Glove award winner in 2035. Over 15 major league seasons, Manarez racked up 153 wins, 1880 strikeouts, and was one of the most consistently solid pitchers of both the 2020s and 2030s. However, his career has shown one major weakness - his inability to get minor league hitters out.

Manarez has struggled mightily for the Orioles this season, posting a whopping 11.12 ERA for the team's AAA affiliate, the Norfolk Tides. Many people have called for his retirement, stating that his performance this season shows he is no longer worthy of being a major league pitcher. It may be true that Manarez may never play a major league game again, but his performance this season actually lowered his career ERA in the minor leagues.


Despite a major league career where he has been a consistent top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher for over a decade, Manarez's minor league record is a staggeringly awful 3-144, which means he has more losses as a minor league pitcher than as a major league pitcher; despite pitching in over 200 more games as a major leaguer. One look at the career numbers at each level shows such a remarkable difference that few people would believe these stats are from the same pitcher:

Leon Manarez Career Stats (as of May 1, 2040)

Majors: 153 W-123 L, 0.554 W%, 2565 IP, 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 2.67 BB/9, 6.60 K/9, 0.57 HR/9
Minors: 3 W-144 L, 0.020 W%, 665 1/3 IP, 11.88 ERA, 3.37 WHIP, 9.52 BB/9, 13.07 K/9, 2.15 HR/9

His career minor league line wouldn't even the legendarily wild and inconsistent Oliver Perez jealous, with Manarez transforming from a gifted control artist in the majors to arguably the worst pitcher in the history of the minor leagues. The only improvement for Manarez is the fact that his strikeout rate doubles - but that improvement is more than offset by the fact he allows over 3 baserunners an inning and over 2 homers every nine innings, causing his ERA in the minor leagues to more than triple.

No explanation has ever been found for this bizarre statistical anomaly, but it appears to be continuing to this day - and it will unquestionably go down as one of the weirdest moments in the history of FCM.

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