Thursday, February 27, 2014

Cardoza Heads "East"

Maybe it was a rash decision for Vertigo to start selling off so early, but then again, maybe it was the right move.

The Giants were starting to compile a decent amount of young talent, but also had a handful of suspect (sub-70) health guys. So, potentially trading off was the right thing to do. San Fran has made a flurry of trades to begin the tear down.

Gilreath (to COL) and Harwell (to SDP) have already been dealt inside the division. And the same has been done with Cardoza - going to Arizona. Some think intra-division trading is taboo. However, if it benefits your team, you're foolish to exclude a division team if it nets you the best return. Sure, the player you traded could be star for a division rival. But if you know what you're doing, your return should be just as beneficial to your team. Plus in the Giants' case, they're going into a new rebuild. Teams like Colorado, San Diego, and Arizona have more to lose long-term than the Giants. And ultimately, when the Giants are ready to compete the affects of the recent trades could still be present while any of these guys San Fran dealt could be declining or about ready to start declining.

As for the trade itself, San Fran got two late slotted pick in the first and second round as well a couple of middling prospects. It's not a bad return, but seems more of quantity rather than quality. I'm not as high on Cardoza as some are (and I'll explain why), but I'd think getting at least one elite prospect (see Seattle's trade of Broadhead) shouldn't have been that difficult.

With that said, it makes sense considering I feel Cardoza is overrated. According to my projections, as of being called up in 2043, Cardoza was projected to put up a slash line of .299/.344/.436. That's with 35-40 walks, 80-85 strikeouts, and 30/15 power. The high end (and maybe high teens HRs) probably puts up closer to an .800 OPS. You also have to realize that these are based off of only minor league numbers and any development beyond the minor leagues needs to be taken into consideration.

Because of lower than average strikeouts, he looks better than what he'll actually produce on the field. He's a guy who will seemingly live off of his batting average since he doesn't walk much. And with him being more of a doubles power guy, it'll be tough to put up a consistently great SLG. All-in-all I think Cardoza is an above average 3B, but no near elite and one who is relatively easy to upgrade.

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