Stop Being The Lamb That's Led To The Slaughter!

I've re-posted this before and seeing some recent trades, I think it warrants yet another renewal. I urge you guys to read this and BELIEVE in it.

From time to time I've heard grumblings of how the administrators and moderators reign supreme in this league. And with the grumblings arising again, it's frustrating to hear when really it's the league's fault.

When I get into conversations about the issue, I know in the back of their minds they're wondering if there's cheating going on. I would highly doubt the guys in charge would stoop that low. The reason the ones in charge are in that position is because they've shown that they know what they're doing. You don't give a position of responsibility to a person who hasn't shown the ability to effectively run a team.

So why are they winning? First, they can recognize talent. Just cause someone has a good overall or peak rating doesn't mean they're going to produce for you. "X" number rating doesn't equal "X" number of production. Power, for example, could be doubles power or home run power. While minor league numbers aren't to be 100% believed, you can get a good idea on things like 2B, HR, BB, and K. Then based on that information, you can plug in expected production from other ratings.

Second, they know how and when to trade. People who have that "trade itch" seem to screw their teams over with the desire to continually trade. The good ones will always entertain trade possibilities, but don't pounce on the opportunity unless it makes sense.

But, the biggest reason why the administrators and moderators reign supreme is that they know how prospects develop. It goes beyond being able to recognize a good prospect. In Mogul players only progress once per season. Now I know some of you are saying, "I've seen a guy jump twice in a season before". You aren't wrong, but what you've seen is a progression and a random jump.

We all know talent distribution is random. Players sometimes jump, players sometimes fall. If it's a talent distribution jump or drop, it's usually accompanied by a health change. The only time when a player's health drops is when the player is regressing. So if you notice a health change on a player that you know isn't regressing yet the jump/drop is random talent distribution.

With knowing how to recognize a random jump from a normal progression jump you can figure out if a player still has the possibility of progressing or not in the current season. This is where a lot of the elite GMs do their work. If they know a prospect has already jumped, they'll try and sell high on that prospect. On the flip side, they'll also consider this when trading for a prospect.

EXAMPLE

A 75/85 rated prospect on opening day jumps to 80/90 mid-season. Once he ages he'll likely fall back to 80/85, so buying on the 90 peak is buying into value that isn't there.

By looking at old files you can get a better sense of how much a player should drop when he ages. Seeing patterns in past development can assist in figuring out where a player should end up.

For the exampled prospect one might think they should trade an 87 or 88 rated veteran. If you continually do this you're selling yourself short and continually giving the administrators and moderators an advantage.

My advice to the league is to research. Know what you're holding. Know what you're trading for. I see people continually trading an 88 rated veteran for a prospect who'll become an 80/85 or a 92 rated veteran for a prospect who'll drop to 84/90. Now certainly age and salary can be a factor, but I'm talking about instances where age and salary are not a deterrent on trade value.

Look at the opening day file and compare the prospect to what he looks like now. Then check out old files to see how a prospect's peak usually drops when he ages. The rate at which a player's peak drops when he ages does NOT change. If you do these things, I guarantee you'll start to make better trades.