2065-66 Off-Season Trade Review

This off-season saw a fairly good amount of trades happen. As usual, some were minimal and others were impact deals. We'll be looking at the larger deals and seeing who won and who lost. It's also worth noting that it was nice to see this off-season go without any (at least to my knowledge) controversial deals that required timeouts in the corner because of temper tantrums.


Gets:
RF Tom McElveen 69/93
SP Karim Gallardo 85/92
CHC 1st (#1)
CHC 2nd (#33)

Gets:
2B Steve Lay 83
3B Joel Tice 95

The prospects are very good and I have to imagine many people would love to trade their entire draft class for the #1 and #33 picks, so that value alone is worth as much, if not more than the usual, "Player Y for a draft class" chatter that good players usually receive in the off-season.

McElveen looks like he'll be a very dynamic bat. He should wind up with very good contact and solid, above average power and on-base ability. He may even be worth playing in the field as he projects to have mid 60's range and his arm will at least be 80 after he hits his career window.

Gallardo is overrated with no vital at or above his overall, but he's still pretty good. He projects to be mid-to-upper 80's in all three vitals. It's true, him having 90+ movement would be ideal. However, he'll have enough strikeout ability that if he can limit home runs, his movement will perform just as well as if it was 90+.

Lay sucks. He just plain sucks. In the field he's Dan Uggla's range with Chuck Knoblauch's arm. I guess at least he doesn't make a ton of errors? He's a DH in FCM and while he does have good gap power and pretty good speed, overall he doesn't hit well enough to even be considered a good DH as it's easier to find better production out of that spot.

Tice is a star. If the Mogul Gods can stand to be nice to him, he could wind up one of the all-time greats. Offensively, he has amazing on-base potential and eventually I'd expect him to produce better in the power department. Defensively, he'll commit a few more errors than you'd like, but he has a very strong arm, so he's certainly an option in the field.

Tice may be the most valuable bat in the league, but I can't help but feel this may be a bit of an overpay, especially since I don't feel Lay adds much value, if any at all.

Advantage: Leaning Towards Atlanta

Gets:
DH Jason Kinzer 79/83
SP Dale McKenty 69/81

Gets:
SS Moreno Vasquez 77/88

But wait, isn't Kinzer an 88 peak? No. He'll age during Spring Training and past agings put him probably dropping about 4 points. Then it should be noted that since he's pre-Window (and Career Window jumps are 4 points), he's actually peaked and (likely) on our sim to March 1, 2067 he'll jump to 83 and be done. No matter if you're playing in Coors or not, 71 contact is risky in FCM. He may hit some home runs, but if he struggles to even hit .230, it's gonna take a lot to carry him to a good OPS. Then there's the defense. It sucks. That's it. That's why he's listed as a DH.

McKenty is solid and certainly underrated, but with a May 15th birthday, you might as well chalk that up as an off-season birthday. In a peak year he has very little time to progress. Chances are he doesn't have much time to develop and will likely be one of those starters you throw at the bottom of your rotation rather than a top-to-mid rotation starter that you expect to put up good-to-great numbers each year.

Vasquez is pretty nice and just having dropped only 2 points when he aged over the off-season, I would expect him to have 3 more years to develop. He already looks to walk a ton and eventually his contact will be very nice. His splits are almost that of a switch hitter and the only downfall is that he's not overly fast. Though he's not slow and that defense will be very, very good.

Andy's Trade 101 blog was very good, but should have mentioned to people to be aware of impending peak drops and if it's in-season, be aware if the player has already jumped, so that you don't buy onto an 85/93 prospect that will inevitable be an 85/89 prospect next spring. It's not to say a player aging or jumping in-season is a bad thing and something you want to avoid. Not at all. It's a nautral part of Mogul. GMs just need to be able to place proper value on what the player's future actually looks like.

Advantage: Easily Milwaukee, Like Taking Candy From A Baby

Gets:
CF Craig Seely 79/87
SP Adam Trimble 84/86

Gets:
SS Ivan Verdugo 91

I'm quite surprised and actually impressed that Peter gave up prospects that have already aged. Both players the Angels are getting look pretty solid.

Seely may not be able to hold up at CF, but he'll certainly make a great RF with his fantastic arm. He won't be amazing offensively, but he'll be able to do a little of everything as I would expect all three vitals to be at or slightly above 80.

Trimble struggles with home runs, but he highly improved last year from 2064. With his vitals, continued improved could be expected. He should be 90+ in both control and movement after jump in his last pre-peak season, so if the home runs are corrected, he'll be a very good pitcher.

I'm not much of a fan of Verdugo (or any of the other SS like him from the past that have bene drooled over). He's pretty solid offensively, but where he loses me is his defense - it's simply not very good. It gives the appearance of being good, but there are plenty of SS with mid-to-high 90s range and his arm is poor for SS in FCM. His fielding is in the ballpark of average, but I would be more worried about the subpar range and Johnny Damon arm.

If Verdugo's range and arm were better, I think he'd be rightfully coveted by GMs. But, that's not how it is and I see short stops like Rafael Marzan, Edward Andrews, Jason Hutter, or even my own Luke Tarleton (who are rated considerably lower than Verdugo and think, "Yeah, I'd much rather have those guys than Verdugo."

Advantage: Solidly Los Angeles

Gets:
ARI 1st (#15)
ARI 2nd (#47)
ARI 3rd (#85)
ARI 4th (#115)
DET 4th (#129)
10M Cash

Gets: Gets:
LF Rafael Gonzalez 88
CF Pete Strafford 85

The picks are valuable. Probably more than the standard draft class when you consider that the cash is solidly worth a 4th round pick. That's where I think PIT should have gotten more.

Gonzalez is a pretty good on-base guy who can rack up some steals. He's also displayed better than anticipated power with roughly 30 2B and 15 HR to be expected out of just 76 power. In Arizona, he might dance with 20 homers per season. Mogul hasn't liked his defense via DRAA, but that is highly weighted on chance (where groundball pitchers can make OFs look bad) and I wouldn't be discouraged since he has what matters, quality speed and range.

Strafford is a great on-base guy and with being a smart base runner, he'll successfully steal more often than you'd think for a 79 speed guy. He has great range in center and can be counted on to play solid defense as well. Another great thing about him is that with only being rated 85, he'll likely re-sign rather cheap for his production.

In the end, Arizona was able to pick up both great and good leadoff hitters for a return that's not much more than it usually takes to get just one. Strafford and Gonzalez will make a great 1-2 punch atop the D-Backs lineup.

Advantage: Fairly Shaded Towards Arizona

Gets:
SP Pete Miller 92

Gets:
RF Eric Carter 66/79
CLE 1st (#12)
CLE 4th (#112)
$4M Cash

I got gmoney to review my two big trades, but I figured I will still leave my quick thoughts.

I had attempted to get Miller from MIN during the season and had even mentioned the possibility of a deal centering around my first round pick, to which weihawei was quite interested - enough to say he'd rather table our current package we were negotiating. So, I was rather surprised when he traded him to Seattle for what I felt was basically just one average prospect.

I usually sim ahead after re-signings to see which prospects hit their career windows and how much players drop when they age. I completely overlooked how much Carter dropped and got a gift to have dealt him. Knowing that he didn't jump during the season, an impending peak drop, and my overall OF depth in the minors made him expendable. I figured his power and walk potential would make him an interesting second piece.

I made the deal because I obviously think Miller will get on track to what his vitals indicate. I think he will do very well with my defense behind him.

gmoney's Thoughts:

Miller hasn't quite lived up to his potential yet, but he has spent most of his time in Minnesota behind inferior defense. Although 92 might be pushing it as a rating, he keeps the ball in the park, and has solid control and movement. He looks to be an asset as a young, mid/high rotation starter who has yet to decline.

Even before Carter's major drop over the rollover, Carter was not a particularly strong prospect. His best asset is his ability to draw walks, and that is probably his only skill that will end up being significantly above average. His defense is average for a corner OF, and his power is going to be that of a 7 hitter, not a 4 hitter.

This deal hinges almost entirely on the picks that were given, and although these picks are not awful value for Miller, I am confused by the Seattle decision to deal Miller while maintaining a fairly old rotation. This strikes me as a panic move due to Miller's rough stretch in Seattle. Not an awful deal, though.

Advantage: Solidly Cleveland