From time to time I've heard grumblings of how the
administrators and moderators reign supreme in this league. And with the
grumblings arising again, it's frustrating to hear when really it's the
league's fault.
When I get into conversations about the issue, I know in the
back of their minds they're wondering if there's cheating going on. I would
highly doubt the guys in charge would stoop that low. The reason the ones in
charge are in that position is because they've shown that they know what
they're doing. You don't give a position of responsibility to a person who
hasn't shown the ability to effectively run a team.
So why are they winning? First, they can recognize talent.
Just cause someone has a good overall or peak rating doesn't mean they're going
to produce for you. "X" number rating doesn't equal "X"
number of production. Power, for example, could be doubles power or home run
power. While minor league numbers aren't to 100% believed, you can get a good
idea on things like 2B, HR, BB, and K. Then based on that information, you can
plug in expected production from other ratings.
Second, they know how and when to trade. People who have
that "trade itch" seem to screw their teams over with the desire to
continually trade. The good ones will always entertain trade possibilities, but
don't pounce on the opportunity unless it makes sense.
But, the biggest reason why the administrators and
moderators reign supreme is that they know how prospects develop. It goes beyond
being able to recognize a good prospect. In Mogul players only progress once
per season. Now I know some of you are saying, "I've seen a guy jump twice
in a season before". You aren't wrong, but what you've seen is a
progression and a random jump.
We all know talent distribution is random. Players sometimes
jump, players sometimes fall. If it's a talent distribution jump or drop, it's
usually accompanied by a health change. Health will only progress and only
progress +3 when a player hits their projection debut. The only time when a
player's health drops is when the player is regressing. So if you notice a
health change on a player that you know isn't regressing yet the jump/drop is
random talent distribution.
With knowing how to recognize a random jump from a normal
progression jump you can figure out if a player still has the possibility of
progressing or not in the current season. This is where a lot of the elite GMs
do their work. If they know a prospect has already jumped, they'll try and sell
high on that prospect. On the flip side, they'll also consider this when
trading for a prospect.
EXAMPLE
A 75/85 rated prospect on opening day jumps to 80/90
mid-season. Once he ages he'll likely fall back to 80/85, so buying on the 90
peak is buying into value that isn't there.
By looking at old files you can get a better sense of how
much a player should drop when he ages. Seeing patterns in past development can
assist in figuring out where a player should end up.
For the exampled prospect one might think they should trade
an 87 or 88 rated veteran. If you continually do this you're selling yourself
short and continually giving the administrators and moderators an advantage.
My advice to the league is to research. Know what you're
holding. Know what you're trading for. I see people continually trading an 88
rated veteran for a prospect who'll become an 80/85 or a 92 rated veteran for a
prospect who'll drop to 84/90. Now certainly age and salary can be a factor,
but I'm talking about instances where age and salary are not a deterrent on
trade value.
Look at the opening day file and compare the prospect to
what he looks like now. Then check out old files to see how a prospect's peak
usually drops when he ages. If you do these things, I guarantee you'll start to
make better trades.
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