Time for G$ to eat his shirt? Let's see what the numbers say.

During the preseason podcast, g$ made a statement that he could soon come to regret.  As we were breaking down trades, gilly and I both believed that starting pitcher Donnie Erickson would improve his numbers after being traded to San Diego.  g$ disagreed with us, and even went so far as making a bet with no one in particular about Erickson's success (or lack-thereof) this season.

For those unfamiliar with this "wager", just go to Episode 41 in the podcast history, recorded on March 5th, then go to 1:05:04 into the recording.  Or for those of you who don't feel like doing that amount of work, just read my transcription of the exchange below.  For context, this back-and-forth immediately followed our opinions of the trade that sent Erickson to the Padres:


g$ (1:05:04 - 1:05:16): "San Diego might be the best place for him to perform, but the best case scenario for him in my mind... 4.50 ERA, toward the back end of a rotation, and that's not worth what he gave up."
gilly (1:05:18 - 1:05:23): "Alright well let's mark the tape.  I think he'll get under 4.  We'll see what happens in San Diego."
g$ (1:05:23 - 1:05:29): "If he has an ERA under 4, I will eat my Hawaiian shirt."

*End of Recording*

What you folks just heard right there was foreshadowing of g$ eating his words... and his shirt.


So let's jump back to present day.  Erickson has given up 60 Earned Runs through 140.1 innings this season, giving him an ERA of 3.85.  His numbers have been slipping recently, but how badly would he really have to pitch the rest of this season to sink back down below that magical 4.00 mark?  The answer to that question depends entirely on how much more he pitches this season.  It's most likely that he has three starts remaining, but for the sake of argument, let's say he could pitch up to four games.

The table below (Yes, I know, I love tables, and I love Excel even more, but let's move on, shall we?) shows exactly how many runs Erickson can give up per inning to stay AT OR ABOVE 4.00.  I was part of team < 4.00, so the data I input shows how many Earned Runs he can allow and still give g$ a full belly, while making gilly and I look like geniuses.

For each increase in ER, the corresponding IP value represents the lowest amount of innings that Erickson could pitch while remaining at or above an ERA of 4.00.  Also, Baseball Mogul rounds up on ERA numbers, so that's why you see numbers like 3.988 and 3.996 representing a 4.00 value.

So what this chart shows is that g$'s best hope is that Erickson can pitch deep into four starts the remainder of the season, which would require starting on short rest at least once.

Even still, Erickson would have to give up nearly a run more than his season average in order to hit that 4.00 number.  Or he would have to have one truly awful start to make up for the difference if he pitches just three games.  It's still just a little too early to tell, but I'm pessimistic that that sort of finish is likely to happen.  That is, unless a player he had no faith in to begin the season returns to his form of past seasons for a few weeks.  To make a long story short, that means that after all of this math and excel nonsense, g$ is about to take a bite out of Magnum PI's wardrobe.  I guess we'll all find out soon enough, though.  Until then, Tom Selleck will be staring into your soul, waiting to take vengeance on the man who bears his picture as an avatar.

- Brad Hickox has been a contributing writer since 2015 on the FCM Blogspot