And Down The Stretch They Come: Handicapping to the Final 30 Days

I'll be the first to admit when I'm wrong, and I would be wrong with a whole bunch of my preseason predictions if the season ended today.  During our preseason podcast, Gilly, G$, and I all made our picks for this season's division winners and wild card teams.

As you can see from the teams in red, none of us are doing great on our predictions.  But there's three more sims and one more month left to go for us each to prove ourselves right (or even more wrong).

But we're turning the page on those predictions now, and it's time to see where each team stands in its pursuit of the postseason.  As of September 1st, only five teams have been eliminated from playoff contention.  Granted that a number of teams are more than 20 games back in playoff races with between 25 and 28 games remaining for each team, that number will be growing within the next week.

So let's handicap each race with the strength of each team's remaining schedule.  (This whole premise does not account for injuries, current streaks, momentum, or any other intangible.)  Some teams have tough final stretches - the Cardinals in particular - whose last 23 games come against teams with a combined record of 1986-1189, good for a .626 winning percentage.  A team with that winning percentage would have the league's fourth best record.  Conversely, the Athletics have the easiest remaining schedule, as they will face just one team with a winning record in the month of September.  That one will be a three game series to end the season against the (currently) second place Mariners, whom many projected to win the division (see above).  A full table of each playoff race is below, with each team's remaining opponents' records and their major league rank included.  1 is hardest remaining schedule, 30 is easiest.

Logic would suggest that all of the best teams would have the easiest schedules and the worst teams would have the hardest schedules, since they weigh the league averages in either direction.  But don't tell that to the Orioles, Rays, Mariners, and Cardinals, all of whom are potential playoff teams with some of the toughest remaining schedules.

So based off of the information here, it's fair to speculate that the NL East, NL Central, NL West, AL East, AL Central crowns can be penciled in, and that one AL Wild Card spot should be coming from the AL West.  So what's next for teams NOT named the Mets, Brewers, Giants, Orioles, Tigers, A's and Mariners?  Wild Card spots!  As of September 1st, 3 NL teams have a realistic chance at a Wild Card spot and as many as 6 have a chance at an AL "at large" berth.  With St. Louis's aforementioned remaining schedule, I would put them on the outside looking in.  If they prove me wrong, look out National League.

That possibility aside for the moment, that leaves three teams fighting for two spots in the NL.  The idea that one of the Nationals, Marlins, or Reds would miss the playoffs seemed preposterous to us before the season started, but it seems that's where we're headed.  The three teams have similarly difficult remaining schedules, so that should be an exciting race.

The AL Wild Card is much more interesting.  Seattle's seven game lead over Tampa Bay and 11 game lead over Boston gives them a VERY good chance of making it in as the AL West or AL Wild Card representative, but Tampa Bay is in a much more interesting conversation.  They have the sixth hardest remaining schedule and are being chased by three teams with much softer competition in the Red Sox, White Sox, and Yankees.  If Tampa Bay does falter, then that leaves the door wide open for those teams and even the Blue Jays or Twins to make late runs.  That one race should be the most exciting as a potential free-for-all as we wrap up 2053.

So finally, since I made preseason predictions, I'll make one last attempt at guessing the playoff teams at the final turn of the season (and I'll probably still be wrong).


AL East: Baltimore Orioles (102-60) ~ September: 15-12
AL Central: Detroit Tigers (98-64) ~ September: 17-10
AL West: Oakland Athletics (104-58) ~ September: 19-8
AL Wild Card 1: Seattle Mariners (97-65) ~ September: 15-12
AL Wild Card 2: Tampa Bay Rays (87-75) ~ September: 11-14

Just Outside:
Boston Red Sox (87-75) ~ September: 15-10
Chicago White Sox (83-79) ~ September: 14-12


NL East: New York Mets (104-58) ~ September: 16-11
NL Central: Milwaukee Brewers (115-47) ~ September: 20-7
NL West: San Francisco Giants (95-67) ~ September: 16-11
NL Wild Card 1: Florida Marlins (96-66) ~ September: 15-11
NL Wild Card 2: Nationals (96-66) ~ September: 15-11

Just Outside:
Cincinnati Reds (96-66) ~ September: 16-11


If these predictions do come to fruition, then the AL and NL would both have virtual ties for the final Wild Card spot.  While that seems unlikely, so has this season, based on our projections.  Happy September everyone, and may the odds be ever in your favor.

- Brad Hickox has been a contributing writer since 2015 on the FCM Blogspot.