Monday, May 4, 2015

Transparent Transactions

For those of you that have been around in FCM for some time (or in other leagues with me), know that I’m big on transactions. I love knowing the real life rules behind them, what the differences are (i.e. the difference in being optioned, outrighted, or designated for assignment), and have always been interested in exploring how to incorporate as many into Mogul leagues. Many times, like with Rule V Drafts, the process is either too complicated or too much work for the benefit for Mogul leagues.

Taking over Cleveland is such a different thing for me and I thought it’d be interesting to track ALL of my transactions and leave my true, honest opinion of them. If I think I traded a guy that’s about to peak, I’ll say it. If I think I took on a controversial player, I’ll admit that too. I look forward to being able to look back on my words and see if I was right or not. Lastly, I would encourage others to do the same. There’s nothing better than an, “I called it,” on paper.

Transparent Transactions: June 2054

I’ll start off with a trade that wasn’t mine, but one that affected me greatly. At first, I didn’t like the value Sean go in return. Yes, it’s just one slot, but it’s securing the ability to make sure you get who you want and know that no one else can trade in front of you to take your guy. However, after looking at Julio Ramirez, I think it’s enough. Ramirez will hardly unseat Josh Corrigan at 1B, but he has a legitimate shot at being starter material.

2) 2054 Amateur Draft:
1-003: SP Manuel Poblano:  His vitals and repertoire look of someone who will be nasty, but the big issue with him is turning in an eye opening 1.74 HR/9 his Junior year. Granted, a 0.71 HR/9 his Senior paints a vastly different picture, Mogul probably wouldn’t generate an alarming Amateur season if it didn’t mean something.

2-035: 1B Juan Bigil: He was a guy that I was targeting for CHC and with how the draft looked, I would’ve had no qualms about taking him at #15 for the Cubs. I feel his power and walk potential are very good and his contact isn’t like the usual 10+ difference from his power, like many other power hitting 1B draftees are.

What I don’t get is the poor reviews for Tope (and assumed Bigil since their builds are similar). I like Bigil a good deal better than Tope since he’s 2 years young, but even so, they don’t look at that far off of heralded 1B draftees of the past in Mickey Bailey and Donny Redwine.

Bailey was 63/94 on draft day. Remember with how Mogul curves the overall/peak ratings above 92, it means his peak was really 95 or 96. So, he was age 17 with 62 contact, 76 power, and 79 eye vs RHP. I get where you like Bailey better than either Bigil or Tope. He’s younger and has a decent amount of more upside, but is it enough to not like an age 18, 62 contact. 69 power, 71 eye vs RHP at all? His contact should grow better in respect to his other vitals than Bailey’s did. I definitely am not trying to say Bigil will be as good as Bailey, but I still see a reliable bat from Bigil.

3-073: C Miguel Corrl: He seriously needs a name change. “Corri”, “Coral”, or “Corral”, anything than ending his last name, “-rl.” But I digress. He reminds me of Frederick Toll, who I drafted for Seattle with the vision of being a future backup. Corrl looks very similar defensively, but looks more promising offensively with more power and more adept at taking walks. I think he could potentially become starting material, but definitely needs to exceed his 81 peak. If he does, I’ll have yet another starterable catcher on my hands and if not, then I should have another reliable Frederick Toll model of a valuable backup.

04-103: LF Tan Kubota: As I stated in my top prospects blog, I usually stay away from Asians. However, he’s not the typical  slap-hitting, doesn’t take walks Asian Invader. He can take walks as well as hit for some power. I think he has a better chance of becoming a legitimate starter than Corrl. I love his arm and in time, I think his defense will be just fine.

05-132: RP Andy Carapetian: This is where my draftees stopped and I let Andy take back over to select whomever he felt best for Cleveland, as at the time I was still deciding on whether to stay with the Cubs or take the Indians over full-time.

I’m not a huge fan of Carapetian as he looks like he could be a HR issue, but I see where Andy was going. Pitching usually dwindles late in the draft, so if you want a projectable arm, you need to pounce when you can. He’s just 18 and has good vitals (especially control) and repertoire for his overall.

05-133: RF Garry Smith: Initially I wanted to vomit at his contact. But to put up that kind of OPS and average 10 home runs per 125 PAs with that kind of contact is impressive. There’s a long road ahead to become starter material, but with his defense already at MLB quality, he may have a higher ceiling than anyone else drafted by Cleveland.

6-158: SS Randy Dayrell: Out of all of the draftees, I think he has the lowest ceiling. It would take nothing short of a miracle for him to become starter worthy and most GMs would never use him, period. Even with that said, he may just be the type that (since he has Predicteds at 2B and 3B too) you stash on the bench as a super utility defensive replacement. He has decent speed and his base running skills are oddly very, very good.

6-159: 2B Jason Biderman: He’s another guy that doesn’t have a lot of hope, but I do think he has a better chance of making the bench than Dayrell. Though he’s not as good defensively as Dayrell, Biderman can hit a little and looks like a player who could convincibly be more than an automatic out. And once again, he’s another guy that is a pretty good base runner.

I’ve already said that I’m not a fan of Poblano, so no need to rehash that story. Holt was one pick away from being a Cub. Jason and I had decided to go Dix at #9 and then hopefully Holt at #15. I love Holt’s initial build. His control is above his overall and he should develop into a nice strikeout pitcher. His movement is also trailing behind his control just around where I like it. In the end, I don’t think he’ll rely on any one attribute and will be pretty balanced.

The only issue would be his GB%, but GB% doesn’t have an effect on Predicted Stats. It merely represents to whether the balls put in more are likely to go to the infield or outfield. At times Mogul correlates GB% with HR/9, but power arms almost always have less than ideal GB%. Consider that Donovan Pace had a GB% in the low 30’s and it wasn’t until his later years when his strikeout ability was gone that he ended his career with a 35.3 GB%.

Rocky swears (or at least it was a ploy to get me to accept the deal) that McGibbon’s defense, specially his arm will improve enough to be good defensively. I’m skeptical and am hard pressed to believe his arm gets to 80+. However, I like his bat and he’s not a bad consolation prize to who I preferred, Carlos Garcia. Not to be confused with the 3B (like Andy did, :P), RF Fredric Garcia was tacked on as icing on the cake to get the deal done. He looks decent enough, but I’m not enamored with him and would be a prospect that I’d flip for one of those pre-arb holdovers that I’ve been looking for.

Too many to list out, but the majority are peaked out in the high 60’s to low 70’s and aren’t really worth much, even as replacements to a rebuilding team. The only one that jumps out a few sims later is SP Trevor Peters. I didn’t believe his control would ever be good enough, even for a bullpen job and while I still think I’m right, if I’m wrong, he would be why I preach to never give up on a prospect until you absolutely know there’s no hope of him helping you out (either in the majors or as trade bait).

5) Free Agent and UDFA Signings
UDFAs: SP Chris Farrer, 2B Emmanuel Frontella, 2B Steve Urbaez, and SP Scott Jones
The Free Agent signings are nothing to write home about. Some will still be here in 2055, most are just fill-ins for the remainder of the 2054 season.

The 2 UDFAs that I’m most excited about are Frontella and Jones. Frontella has a lot of the same qualities that I saw in Brian Turner (now with SFG), who I signed as a UDFA in Seattle. He’s very young, has a decent starting build and has defense that will be solid if he has the great development that he’ll need in order to make the majors. Jones is a little older, but he has a nice initial build and a good repertoire. If his development booms, he’s in line to be a useful pitcher.

I paid a little more than I wanted to, but it’s on the gamble that Haggerman’s jump this season wasn’t a true progression, but a random boost and that he still has the chance to jump once more this season. If I’m right, I could have a pretty decent and very reliable defensive holdover SS. If not, the Shawn Bundy will suffice. He’s not great defensively, but he can at least hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

After it’s all said and done, I think I traded for about the same as I got for Briggs. SP Mallett admittedly looks solid for his overall and still has time to regain his 1st round form. At the time, I took the trade because I thought Decker’s price was a little low for these guys. Briggs and Lyman are solid relievers and to basically be asking for 3rd/4th round talent for each, I jumped on the idea. They could either help me fill a spot during the rebuild or be flipped (which they now have been) for  prospects that I like better.

I do not care for Jonasen at all. He has terrible range in LF and looks awful at 1B. His splits are rough and he can’t walk, so he looks like a platoon DH at best. McMenemy is one of those guys that I label as having control to high for his movement. Think Andy Hare. Even looking as nice as Hare does, he produces like a 4/5 SP. McMenemy won’t look as nice as Hare, so I’m thinking long reliever is his future. As I’ve already alluded to, Mallett looks solid. His build is nice and if he gets back on track, he could be a very nice pitcher for Decker.

7) Released SS Boteler and RF Blazer
With getting Shawn “Al” Bundy, Boteler is no longer needed. Boteler is fantastic defensively, but is almost as bad as a pitcher in the batter’s box. Blazer was kept around for some time as insurance, but it’s apparent that we won’t be needed as it would take numerous, multiple injuries before he’d get the call.

Both are solid players, but neither was going to be retained after the season. The bad thing is that even with our 90% buyouts for releases, arbitration contracts still require the full, 100% buyout, so there wasn’t even a benefit to releasing them. It was keep them or ditch them. Cleveland has other comparable players in the minors, so I was fine with dumping them for nothing.

I really like Burdine. He’s very young and has a nice build to go along with a repertoire that features 2 pitches well above his overall. Green has a build very similar to Alain Holt and could have a dominant fastball if he becomes major league material. Taylor is nothing more than a holdover. He has that 80 threshold movement and a nice heater, so he’ll be a nice one to have during the rebuild.



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