Cleveland: Rebuilding or Retooling?

The Indians dealt away 1B Jaime Archiega, RF Bret Alexander, CF Carlos Mancio, and RP Bruno Washbourne while additionally sending SP Edmund Rivera to free agency. However, even dealing away some star power and integral pieces, the Indians don’t appear to be in a complete rebuild. They’ve yet to deal away much of the younger, cost-controlled talent. For most of the players lost, there’s replacements on the way very soon.

Prospects to Rely On

3B Shaun Ketcham (ETA: 2105) – He got a cup of coffee last September and showed well enough. He’ll be expected to be the “vs RHP” platoon portion at 3B this year. (In a full season) He brings 30+ 2B, 15 HR, and 80+ BB talent to the plate. It’s tough to gauge where his average will sit. Based on the eye test, you’d think he’ll be around .260, but based off of his minor league numbers, it’ll be higher. If it’s somewhere in between, he’ll turn out around a .270/.365/.415 slash line. His defense will be interesting. He has a cannon at the hot corner and some of the best range in the game there as well (and rated among the best defensively at 91). He’ll make some errors, but they appear to be more of throwing errors than fielding errors, so can a good 1B save him of a few errors?

 

UT Pancho Diaz (ETA: 2106) – It seems strange to think a 74/77 rated “prospect” is someone to rely on, but being a super utility player paves the road to the majors for him. There’s nothing overly great about him, but he does a few things solidly enough that combined with his versatility, makes him any easy bench stash. (In a full season) I figure he’d be a 20-25/under 10 power guy with around 30 BB.  He won’t have a very inspiring slash line (.220/.260/.300), but being able to play seven different positions is what will have him keeping a roster spot.

 

SS Brad Watkins (ETA: 2107) – When I drafted him in 2102, I figured that I had a good idea of what I was getting. A black hole offensive player who would take some time to develop, but I was getting a superb defender and being a lefty hitter, his bat is a little less black hole-ish.  What’s his slash line? That’s tough to say. In two years (and a window boost still to come), he could look tolerable at the plate. If I had to guess, I think around .235/.275/.340 is where he’ll be. A classic #9 hitter, “Go make your out and get your glove ready!”

 

CF Jeremy Raley (ETA: 2106) – I really expected him to be called up at some point this season, but in a cruel twist of fate, Mogul decided to NOT give him his window boost at his age-25 season. So, he’ll be in that rare group who doesn’t see a March 1 bump until their age-26 season. The good news, is that he’s been a low peak drop guy, so he has plenty of time to develop. I’d think that his contact will overtake his power pretty soon and that he’ll peak out around mid 80s contact and low 80s power to go along with a strong on-base eye. It’s really tough to project his future slash line, since his numbers have been all over the place. However, let’s guess… .270/.360/.440 seems like something that his skills can accomplish.

 

RF Tommy Nelson (ETA: 2106) – While it’d be great to have him MLB ready right now at his age-25 season, he’s still developed very nicely so far. If you can’t move all that well in the outfield, at least have a good arm (and he does). He looks like he’ll be a mid-to-upper 70s contact, 90s power, and low 80s eye hitter. While you’d prefer great all-around, he’s basically the prototypical RF that you hope for; some power, some walks, and a good arm. His triple slash line of .250/.320/.480 is solid enough for someone projected to peak in the upper 80s overall.

 

SP Rodrigo Fergueroa (ETA: 2105) – He saw some action last season (and got a cold welcome to The Show). He should peak out around upper 80s control, ~70 power, and low 90s movement. He looks to be a low home run pitcher and with a high ground ball rate, he should be a quality pitcher regardless of where his skills peak out. In very fitting fashion, I think he’ll settle into a very fine #3 starter.

 

LR Nomar Hartwell (ETA: 2105) – I’m very intrigued to see how his home runs play out. He’s a low GB% guy and he doesn’t have big time power. That’s usually not a recipe for low homers, but he’s never been beaten up in the minors. That’s not to say that it couldn’t happen in the majors, but generally a high home run arm will see at least some years where they give up a lot of minor league home runs. For now he’ll fit in nicely as either the MRP or LRP roles. If his home runs do prove to be low, he could wind up as an inning-eating #5 SP.

 

SP Todd Chiles (ETA: 2106) – I used to hate him. Then his control jumped a good amount and I kind of like him. If his control continues to play catch up, I’ll really like him. He projects to have upper 70s control, mid 70s power, and easy 90s movement. I can easily see his control getting into the 80s. If it does, he’ll be fantastic. He looks like he’ll be a low home run pitcher and with his high ground ball rate, his kind of build should be very productive.

 

SP Ted Hanson (ETA: 2106) – He obviously has a very similar build to Chiles. However, with him being a 79 overall and Chiles being a 75 overall, Chiles is a good step ahead of him. Hanson does look to be a lock for being a low home run arm. He projects mid 70s control, mid 60s power, and 90s movement. Though with the strides that he’s made with control recently (and just like Chiles), I can see Hanson’s control being a better than ~75, but not quite 80. Even so, with the low home runs and high GB%, he’ll back a welcomed addition to the bottom of the rotation.

 

SP Omar Arredondo (ETA: 2107) – Now, he’s shown those home run issues, with almost always sporting a HR/9 over the average 1.10 rate. Naturally, it’s easy to see with a 20% ground ball and mediocre power that it’s not surprising.  He’s certainly not my typical pitcher, but I felt he was worth the risk. He still has plenty of time to develop and projects pretty well. He should have low 80s control, upper 70s power, and low-to-mid 90s movement. Whether he’ll be a 4.50 ERA pitcher or a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher will likely ride on just how many dingers he gives up. If he can grow out of those issues altogether, he could be quite the quality pitcher.

 

Prospects That Need Some Help

1B Charlie Klimek – It’s no secret that he doesn’t have an inspiring build. Obviously, I’m not as quick to write him off as others. He only projects around low 80s contact and power with his eye right on the cusp of 80. That’s certainly not what you want at 1B. The hope is that in one of his final two years to develop, he has a very encouraging jump. If he does that, then he’s much more in line with being a startable player.

 

OF/1B Bradford Flynn – When I traded for him I thought he’d easily be a prospect to count on. He’s a lefty with solid power, a good eye, and good defense. However, a drop from the Andy Dragon sends him down to this list. Right now, he projects to become a mid 70s contact, mid-ish 80s power, and mid 80s eye bat. Having good defense and being a lefty helps his case, but I think he’ll need a very kind and gracious jump in the next two years to feel confident about him in the starting lineup.

 

OF Oscar Burlos – Will he be a starter or just a 4th OF? He’s solid enough defensively and could become a great OBP threat. The problem is that he has almost zero home run power and isn’t fast enough to rely on in CF. While I don’t pigeonhole certain kind of bat profiles at specific positions, you only need so many contact guys before you need some thump in the order. He should have solid ~15 steal potential, but that’s not enough to where you forgo a power bat either. The good thing is that he’s only dropped about two points when he’s aged, so there’s a lot of time for him to develop. His contact could shoot up to the point where it’s enough to stick him in LF.

 

 What's Next?

After these guys hit the majors, the minor league cupboard would be pretty bare. Though, Cleveland is armed with eight picks in the top 62 (or higher) of the 2105 draft, so they have a great chance to restock the minor leagues for the next wave of talent.

As for how soon will Cleveland be back, making playoff runs? That’s tough to say. The AL Central looks to continue to be a bloodbath for years to come. Sometimes your well armed and stout team falls short, while your team of solid-to-good players wins 100 games. You can never truly get a good gauge of your team in the ALC. You just have to play the games.

2067 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects

Unfortunately, I was far too busy to do the top prospects list over the off-season. So, it will be done as we start the 2067 season. Prospects are starting to graduate to the majors and the rebuild is taking shape! It shouldn't be long until the Indians are back to competing year-in and year-out.

The Grading Scale

99-92 Elite:

- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer

91-87 Well Above:

- This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or quality closer

86-82 Above Average:

- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers

81-77 Average:

- This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers

76-72 Below Average:

- This player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players

71-67 Poor:

- This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor leaguer

15. Francisco Azcona, RP (Last Year: 16) 
Current Value: 49/78  2067 Age: 20  Score: 82.27 Drafted: HS--San Jose de los Llanos, D.R., 2065 (3rd Round, 66th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071 or Later

His development is still plodding along, but he's still a valued prospect. The eventual hope is still to one day see Azcona transition to a starter. Right now it's just a waiting game to see if and when his development sparks the move to the rotation.

14. Jory Gardenas, CF (Last Year: 15)
Current Value: 67/83  2067 Age: 24 Score: 82.64 Drafted: University of Texas, 2064 (1st Round, 19th Overall), Astros Projected Call-Up: 2070

This is a possible make-or-break year for Gardenas. His development has not gone according to plan. He was once projection as the future starting center fielder and now he's more likely to be a 4th outfielder with an outliner of hope to regain his starting form.

13. Ray Wieczorek, RF (Last Year: NR)
Current Value: 71/81 2067 Age: 22 Score: 82.66 Drafted: HS--Newton, MA, 2061 (6th Round, 157th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

He's been one of the most enjoyable prospects to watch develop. His peak has risen each and every year and his development has really taken off recently. He should have 90+ contact with a solid eye. He'll never hit for much power and only has mediocre speed, but his average and enough ability to hit for doubles should make him a starting candidate.

12. Matt Marcus, LF/CF (Last Year: NR)

Current Value: 71/82 2067 Age: 21  Score: 82.90 Drafted: HS--Killorglin, Ireland, 2065 (3rd Round, 87th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

He profiles about the way you'd want a number 2 hitter to look. Real good contact, solid speed, and the ability to draw walks. He had issues with getting caught stealing last year after be successful at a clip of 88% in 2065. If he can turn around those numbers, he'll enhance his value tenfold.

11. Koy Ewin, RF/CF (Last Year: 10)
Current Value: 65/80 2067 Age: 19 Score: 84.39 Drafted: HS--Waterford, WI, 2065 (2nd Round, 39th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071

He's a lot like Marcus, but he doesn't steal much. He's a smart baserunner who picks his spots. Eventually, he too will be a top of the lineup option. His great range still has him in the running to patrol central, though ideally, he'll remain at his primary position in right.

10. Gregg Marshall, SS (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 69/80 2067 Age: 22 Score: 84.70 Drafted: HS--Monroe, VA, 2066 (2nd Round, 54th Overall), Reds Projected Call-Up: 2070

He was the headliner prospect from the Alex Espitice deal last year and he's being counted on as an eventual starter. He doesn't come with the greatest health report, but he's a plus defender who adds a little offense as well. Don't be surprised if he eventually is the reason Luke Tarleton moves to second base.

09. Adam Wakefield, LF (Last Year: 8)

Current Value: 77/82 2067 Age: 25 Score: 85.96 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He's now entrenched in a roster spot where he'll platoon against LHPs. Eventually, he may earn a full-time gig, but for now he'll split time with veteran Keith Oshel. He should be a doubles and walk machine and his minor league steals suggest he's an underrated speed threat as well.

08. Tim Ryan, LF/DH (Last Year: 12)

Current Value: 80/86 2067 Age: 26  Score: 86.62 Drafted: University of Washington, 2063 (4th Round, 100th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068

I think he could be the next Alan Reed. He certainly isn't likely to hit for the home run power that Reed has displayed, but he's shown the ability to hit for average and walk a lot. He should hit for power, but it'll be gap power. With his range, I wouldn't hesitate to play him in the field, but his arm will always mean that there's a better option.

07. Ryland Wilson, SP (Last Year: 7)

Current Value: 63/88 2067 Age: 23 Score: 86.72 Drafted: Pepperdine University 2065 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

With the way his peak barely falls when he ages, it's like having an 18 year old prospect. Looking at him like he has the time to develop as a teenager would and you see why I've refused to include him in trade offers. He should develop quality control and top notch movement to go with a knockout Slider.

06. Vic Vega, RF (Last Year: 11) 

Current Value: 86/91 2067 Age: 24 Score: 86.89 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

Last season's progression sped up his timeline and he's now the regular starting right fielder. His build looks like if he's on the cusp of having one more great jump, then he could be a very dynamic hitter. He likely won't ever blow you away with one skill, but in time he has the ability to hit for respectable average and power while walking at a good clip.

05. Paul Tobey, SP (Last Year: 1)

Current Value: 58/87 2067 Age: 22 Score: 87.25 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

He had some ups-and-downs in his development last year, so he slides down a good deal on this year's list. I'm still very high on Tobey, but guys above him are much more consistent in their development and are more of a sure thing. A good season can get Tobey right back atop the list for 2068.

04. Marc Permenter, RP (Last Year: N/A)

Current Value: 84/88 2067 Age: 23 Score: 88.28 Drafted: HS--Bridgeport, IL, 2063 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

This is his second tour with Cleveland. He ended the 2064 season with the Indians, before being traded back to the Reds the ensuing off-season. This time he comes back at a much higher cost, but he's also the future Closer. He has very good movement and amazing power - very few true RPs (20s endurance) have even 70+ power. Based on previous development, he shouldn't peak out until he's 25 and by then could be one of the league's more reliable Closer's.

03. Tony Beiler, C (Last Year: 3)

Current Value: 79/89 2067 Age: 25 Score: 88.77 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2067

After catching a couple weeks of Triple-A at-bats, he'll be jettisoned to the majors. That was the plan all along - to allow Beiler to become Super 2 eligible and retain an extra year of control. He likely won't ever be a great hitter, but he'll suffice. Where he earns his value is being one of the best defensive catchers in the entire league.  He calls a good game and has an absolute rifle for an arm.

02. Matt Neyland, C (Last Year: 5)

Current Value: 70/92 2067 Age: 19 Score: 89.35 Drafted: HS--Sissonville, WV, 2065 (1st Round, 6th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

As if not progressing in his first season wasn't bad enough, his peak saw a -5 drop when he aged. Meaning, he likely only has 3 or 4 more years to develop. His defense will be top notch, but his offense is still very raw. It's a fair assessment to think his power will come around to decent levels and that he'll walk to a decent clip. The big mystery is where does his contact fall? The projections now have his contact in the upper 80's. He may wind up being a guy that doesn't do anything great (but still average) offensively and with his defense, that makes him a starter in FCM. 

01. Marco Gueler, 1B (Last Year: 4)

Current Value: 68/94 2067 Age: 22 Score: 91.48 Drafted: HS--Rio Piedras, P.R., 2065 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

What a big year he had. He showed off his potential at the plate during the season and then had a very impressive showing in the AFL over the off-season break. His power potential is through the roof and another big year will only further the expectation of him being a future middle of the order man-beast.

2066 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects

It hasn't faded away just yet. After a draft loaded with picks, the system is re-stocked with intriguing prospects. While the system lacks true elite prospects, the Indians do have a wealth of players with starting projections. Many of them have builds that, with some good development, they could become top prospects.

The Grading Scale

99-92 Elite:

- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer

91-87 Well Above:

- This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or quality closer

86-82 Above Average:

- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers

81-77 Average:

- This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers

76-72 Below Average:

- This player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players

71-67 Poor:

- This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor leaguer

17. Gregg Washington, SP (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 52/80  2066 Age: 21 Score: 82.54 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2065 (2nd Round, 38th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070 or Later

It was a little concerning that he didn't progress in his first season, but he still has a lot of upside and looks like worse case scenario, he won't peak out until he's 27. With plenty of time to get back on track, he should end up with solid control and movement with around average strikeout ability. He also features what could be a devastating Circle Change. Though a mid-to-bottom of the rotation arm is more reasonable to count on, with time likely on his side, his ceiling just might be a top of the rotation starter.

16. Francisco Azcona, RP (Last Year: N/A) 
Current Value: 48/79  2066 Age: 19  Score: 82.84 Drafted: HS--San Jose de los Llanos, D.R., 2065 (3rd Round, 66th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071 or Later

He has a build that is primed to convert to a starter. However, with all the pitching depth in the minors, he may be better served as a reliever in the Indians organization. His control will unquestionably be good and his movement should eventually catch up. His Fastballs will likely trail off from his overall and settle around average, but his Curve should be top notch and his Change should be pretty good as well.

15. Jory Gardenas, CF (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 65/84  2066 Age: 23 Score: 83.60 Drafted: University of Texas, 2064 (1st Round, 19th Overall), Astros Projected Call-Up: 2069

Amazingly, he still hasn't progressed since he was drafted two years ago. Though (like with Washington), judging from his peak drops when aging, he should be a late bloomer and not peak out until after 26. His speed and range make him a quality prospect to roam center field. If his contact comes around (and he can be counted on with the bat), he could be a very dynamic player.

14. Mike Hansen, 2B (Last Year: 12)
Current Value: 79/84  2066 Age: 26 Score: 83.98 Drafted: HS--Cincinnati, OH, 2057 (1st Round, 5th Overall), Orioles Projected Call-Up: 2067

Granted, I slightly tweaked the formula for this year, Hansen's drop in ranking has more to do with the depth acquired over the last year than his lack of development (as shown with his improvement in Scouting Score). I'm still unsure if I agree with the Scouting Score's ranking of him, but he does have good range and most certainly will have 80+ contact and probably 80+ eye. How much he can contribute offensively will be a big part of his value to the Indians, since top defenders are easily found waiting to fill in.

13. Koy Ewin, OF (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 64/80 2066 Age: 18 Score: 84.19 Drafted: HS--Waterford, WI, 2065 (2nd Round, 39th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2071

He reminds me a lot of Keith Oshel. If he can be that kind of a prospect, then it's great value considering I took Oshel second overall in 2056. Ewin may shoot up through the system and he ready well before his projection. He has good contact and decent enough speed to go along with great range that will allow him to play all over the outfield if necessary. Like Oshel, he won't walk much, but overall he has the profile to be a very useful player.

12. Tim Ryan, LF (Last Year: NR)
Current Value: 74/83 2066 Age: 25  Score: 84.26 Drafted: University of Washington, 2063 (4th Round, 100th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

It's crazy to think that just a year ago I was going to be very happy with him being a good 4th outfielder who could start in a pinch. His progression in 2065 now has him looking like an actual prospect going forward. His contact should develop into the mid-to-upper 80's, he looks to have very good gap power, and (since he's still pre-Window) his speed will be a slight tick above average. He'll walk a lot and that might be a good combination for a sneaky good starting option

11. Vic Vega, RF/CF (Last Year: N/A) 

Current Value: 80/88 2066 Age: 23 Score: 84.57 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068

With Felipe Baires now positioned as the starting CF, Vega will now move over to RF, but a return to central will not be ruled out just yet. He looks like a guy who'll do a little bit of everything as opposed to a guy with one clear skill to lean on (except doubles, where he looks like he may be good enough for 40+). He'll likely be ready at some point next season, but he'll have to wait until one of the current starters is traded in order to find a starting gig in Cleveland.

10. Felipe Baires, CF (Last Year: 8)

Current Value: 79 2066 Age: 23 Score: 84.67 Drafted: HS--San Pedro de Macoris, D.R., 2062 (3rd Round, 71st Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

As mentioned above, Baires is now entrenched as the starting CF for 2066. His cup of coffee didn't go as well as planned, but plenty of players struggle early on (Juan Bigil did) and figure it out in their first full season. He brings great range and some steal prowess to the table to go along with pretty good contact. The Indians' lineup doesn't feature a lot of power, so he'll be counted on to get on-base and scoot along the bases.

09. Alan Dyer, RP (Last Year: 13)

Current Value: 81/84 2066 Age: 26 Score: 85.10 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2062 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

If he can jump before he likely peaks in June, the gamble could pay off. For now, he be in middle relief, but with an early season jump, he'll have a good enough build to get him into the rotation in the future. With a dominant Fastball and potentially 90+ movement, he'll be exactly what I hoped for on Draft Day back in 2062.

08. Adam Wakefield, LF (Last Year: 9)
Current Value: 76/83 2066 Age: 24 Score: 85.15 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

While he's yet to improve his peak stock, he has made some nice strides to getting his contact on par for starting material. He figures to have another two years to develop and should see his contact shoot up into at least the mid-80's. Getting on-base with good gap power and smart baserunning is his game and he's close to doing all of those very well.

07. Carlos Serps, SP (Last Year: 6)

Current Value: 75/84 2066 Age: 23 Score: 85.49 Drafted: Long Beach State University, 2064 (1st Round, 8th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He had a great jump to get back on track last season. His cup of coffee showed he'll at worst be a bottom of the rotation arm. A successful trip to Winterball would really put him in the discussion as a potential top of the rotation starter. Regardless, he's still going to be a very good control and movement arm and a guy you can count on every fifth day on the mound.

06. Ryland Wilson, SP (Last Year: N/A)
Current Value: 56/83 2066 Age: 22 Score: 85.62 Drafted: Pepperdine University 2065 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

Not that I didn't like him, but admittedly, I wasn't as high on him until seeing the projections. They're quite believable with all three vitals being above his overall. It's a shame his repertoire doesn't follow suit, but his Slider should be elite-plus. He'll be an exciting one to see develop and see if the projections have it right. Like some of the other pitchers on the list, Wilson too likely won't peak until his late 20's.

05. Matt Neyland, C (Last Year: N/A)

Current Value: 65/84 2066 Age: 18 Score: 85.67 Drafted: HS--Sissonville, WV, 2065 (1st Round, 6th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

As if not progressing in his first season wasn't bad enough, his peak saw a -5 drop when he aged. Meaning, he likely only has 3 or 4 more years to develop. His defense will be top notch, but his offense is still very raw. It's a fair assessment to think his power will come around to decent levels and that he'll walk to a decent clip. The big mystery is where does his contact fall? The projections now have his contact in the upper 80's. He may wind up being a guy that doesn't do anything great (but still average) offensively and with his defense, that makes him a starter in FCM. 

04. Marco Gueler, 1B (Last Year: N/A)

Current Value: 61/85 2066 Age: 21 Score: 85.69 Drafted: HS--Rio Piedras, P.R., 2065 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2070

Draftees not jumping in their first season seems to be a theme with me. Luckily for Gueler, it hasn't sunk his potential, like a few others. He still projects to develop into a very good power bat and quality middle of the order hitter. 2066 will be a big year for him to be able to reach that plateau. All-in-all, the projections have him with mid-80's contact, 90 power, and a near-80 eye.

03. Joe Schultz, SP (Last Year: 3)
Current Value: 86/90 2066 Age: 23 Score: 87.04 Drafted: HS--Boston, MA, 2060 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Braves Projected Call-Up: 2066

It's finally time to see what the former #2 overall pick can do. I have some reservations on just how good he can be, but it's easy to see that he should be a quality pitcher who can help nearly any pitching staff. In his seven starts so far, he's posted encouraging results. Once a drawback, now his top notch bill of health should help him be a durable workhorse throughout the season.

02. Tony Beiler, C (Last Year: 4)

Current Value: 71/86 2066 Age: 24 Score: 87.57 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2068

His development is going rather slow, but patience is key. Eventually he'll become a solid enough hitter to go along with very good defense (basically a better version of Matt Neyland). His switch hitting ability only boosts his value to start everyday. Ross Ray and Graham Logan will probably run their pre-Arbitration course as the starting duo, but after that it should be Beiler's job.

01. Paul Tobey, SP (Last Year: 2)
Current Value: 58/88 2066 Age: 21 Score: 90.04 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2069 or Later

Winterball served him very well last season and he's squarely in line to being a top of the rotation starter. Maybe claiming him as an Ace is premature, but certainly his projections circle the wagons as a very good #2 SP. Like Ryland Wilson, all of Tobey's vitals are above his overall and that will serve him well to potentially get that Ace projection going forward.

2065 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects

I’ve always wanted to keep up with a top prospects list. There’s certainly a good chance that this fails to be a yearly thing like I’d hope, but these things are always fun to look back on and see if a guy panned out or not, as well as I thought - even if the player developed, if they have the role I had in mind for him some years before.

Normally I’ll stick to a top 15 list. Sure, 10 is probably a more universally accepted “Top Prospects List”, but I think there’s always a handful more prospects (think the high 70’s and low 80’s peaks) that are worth mentioning. For this season, I have 17.

The Grading Scale

99-92 Elite:

- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer

91-87 Well Above:

- This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or quality closer

86-82 Above Average:

- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers

81-77 Average:

- This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers

76-72 Below Average:

- This player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players

71-67 Poor:

- This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor leaguer

17. Adam Dainty, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/79  2065 Age: 23 Score: 79.33 Drafted: Auburn University, 2063 (3rd Round, 64th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He’s had his ups-and-downs. He’s looked like a legitimate starter at some points of his development, however, a few random drops have put him back in the platoon category. He’s going to be a late bloomer, but he projects to have upper 80’s power and will have serviceable range. The big question will be if his contact hits on his low-to-mid 70’s future billing.

16. Ray Wieczorek, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/78  2065 Age: 20  Score: 79.34 Drafted: HS--Newton, MA, 2061 (6th Round, 157th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068

He’s been the ultimate project. Taken just as some 60’s peak 16 year old teener-bopper going on 5 years now, he’s managed to increase his peak every season. It’s possible that he’ll only be a slap-hitting base clogger, but there’s potential for his contact to really blossom into something great if he continues that trend of increasing his peak every year.

15. Jason York, 2B/OF
Current Value: 71/79  2065 Age: 25 Score: 80.75 Drafted: HS--Hamburg, AR, 2059 (3rd Round, 80th Overall), Pirates Projected Call-Up: 2067

Initially added as just a throw-in reserve hopeful outfielder in the Marcus Aguilar deal, I quickly became interested in his “95 Range at 2B.” He never walked more than 39 times in a season until drawing 50 free passes last year, so I’m interested to see if he could duplicate those numbers. Plus, while he doesn’t hit many homers, he had back-to-back 40+ double seasons. If all that holds to be true and he proves to be viable at second, it’s possible that with being a lefty, he could make up a cheap, underrated platoon with a righty.

14. Eric Grimard, 3B
Current Value: 76/82 2065 Age: 25  Score: 81.91 Drafted: University of Miami, 2061 (1st Round, 27th Overall), Cubs Projected Call-Up: 2067

To say his development has not gone to plan would be an understatement. He has the tools and build to be just as good as Umberto Trancosa, now on the Pirates. But, the sluggish development is also why I was able to pick him up. He’s good enough defensively that if his offense comes around to being remotely tolerable, he could still be a starting option. Judging from his peak drops when he ages, he’ll have two more years to develop, so there’s certainly time for him to get there.

13. Alan Dyer, RP
Current Value: 79/84 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.34 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2062 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

He was a gamble a few years ago that isn’t really panning out as I had hoped. He didn’t have an optimal build on draft day, but late in the second round I felt it was worth it to see if his control could progress better than expected. Though his control isn’t where I wanted it, he’s still a valuable piece as a middle/long man who can spot start. And just maybe that control will get the jump I’m hoping for this season?

12. Mike Hansen, 2B
Current Value: 75/83 2065 Age: 25  Score: 82.35 Drafted: HS--Cincinnati, OH, 2057 (1st Round, 5th Overall), Orioles Projected Call-Up: 2067

I remember getting him from Hick and he was hesitant, because he thought Hansen might become elite. I sincerely didn’t think he’d be elite, but I didn’t think he’d receive a few random drops and really stifle his development quite like this. I figured he’d be an above average starter who could go on streak of being very reliable. Now it looks like I’m just hoping he peaks into a startable player. There’s a chance Jason York jumps him next season and Hansen is the platoon vs LHP.

11. Jose Cauozos, C
Current Value: 81/84 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.45 Drafted: University of Washington, 2062 (1st Round, 17th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

He’s been on the receiving  end of two depressing drops (one happening over the past off-season sim). On Draft Day, it was him or Neil Whitelaw and it’s certain that no matter what happens with Cauozos, Whitelaw would have been the better choice. Though with a good jump, Cauozos can hit the starting mark, it does appear he’s destined to be a platoon mate.

10. Brad Moreland, OF
Current Value: 80/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.40 Drafted: Rice University, 2062 (5th Round, 123rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

I drafted him expecting just a viable bench outfielder, but he looks to be one jump away from being a starting worthy hitter. It may be tough for him to keep a starting job with others coming up on the list, but starting for the next few seasons is certainly possible. He doesn’t do anything overly great, but he’s fairly balanced all-around with the ability to play all three outfield spots.

09. Adam Wakefield, LF
Current Value: 71/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 84.00 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He has that same build as John McNamee, Jonathon Woods, and Sam McCluskey, though Wakefield just hasn’t taken off like the other three have. He should still develop into an everyday player. He’ll be a fine defensive player in left, he has decent speed, he’ll walk a lot, and should wallop 40+ doubles. He’s the beginning of some quietly impressive outfield prospects in the upper levels of the system.

08. Felipe Baires, CF
Current Value: 73/79 2065 Age: 22 Score: 84.07 Drafted: HS--San Pedro de Macoris, D.R., 2062 (3rd Round, 11th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

I go back and forth on thinking he could be the next Gary Bennion and then wondering if his contact will fall just short. Luckily a three month injury didn’t keep him from progressing last season and he still on pace to peak out above 90 contact to go along with good speed and amazing range. Here’s to hoping that contact peaks at 95+.

07. Alex Espitice, C/1B
Current Value: 86/90 2065 Age: 27 Score: 84.61 Drafted: HS--Santurce, Puerto Rico, 2057 (3rd Round, 73rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

Maybe he should be my starting catcher. Even though I know he doesn’t actually have just 72 handling -  that’s a weighted average of his true catching handling and the ~35 handling Mogul gives non-catching positions since Espitice also plays first. He’s certainly overrated, but he’s got a solid, balanced bat. We’ll see how long the ultra defensive catching platoon lasts. I won’t hesitate to bring him up if the other two can’t manage to hit. There should certainly be a future role for him in some capacity.

06. Carlos Serps, SP
Current Value: 65/82 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.03 Drafted: Long Beach State University, 2064 (1st Round, 8th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

Apparently I just shouldn’t trade up to get the player I want. It didn’t work with Cauozos and after being selected, Serps dropped and then never progressed in 2064. Luckily, he shouldn’t peak out for awhile, so there’s still time to rebound, but right now, he looks more like a middle rotation arm, than a top of the rotation starter that he looked prior to being picked last season. He should wind up being a good control-movement pitcher who’ll likely always outpitch his vitals. Just how good he’ll be is the question.

05. Vic Vega, RF/CF
Current Value: 70/86 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.24 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

With the other options that could roam central, Vega likely slides to right field. His bat has lagged in development a bit, but he’s rather balanced and just needs one big break.  So far, he’s shown big doubles power and only so-so home run ability. It’ll be interesting to see if that changes or if he’ll just be a gap power hitter.

04. Tony Beiler, C
Current Value: 69/86 2065 Age: 23 Score: 85.69 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2067

It was risky getting him and no other reliable piece for Marcus Aguilar. We know he’s going to be great defensively,  but he should have low 80’s contact and power with a high 70’s eye. That’s not a great bat, but it’s certainly serviceable for a defensive-minded catcher. With Jose Cauozos’ development faltering, he’s now the catcher of the future.

03. Joe Schultz, SP
Current Value: 80/91 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.99 Drafted: HS--Boston, MA, 2060 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Braves Projected Call-Up: 2065

The former #2 pick in the 2060 draft has bounced around a little, but I hope he sticks with the Indians. Back on Draft Day, I cautioned that his high health may stunt his growth a little. Barring any better than expected jumps in the next couple of seasons, I think my warning will be true. Still, he’ll be a fine pitcher and the projections have him with mid 80’s control and upper 80’s to low 90’s movement.

02. Paul Tobey, SP
Current Value: 51/85 2065 Age: 20 Score: 88.16 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2069 or Later

A great trip to Winterball put him back on the map after an early off-season drop quieted the excitement about him. He’s still very raw, but the upside on him is great. I hate to say that he has top of the rotation potential just yet, as he only has mid 80’s control and movement projections. However, his ceiling is there and if he reaches a 90’s overall, he’ll look very good and be an arm playoff contenders would like to position atop their rotation.

01. Luke Tarleton, SS
Current Value: 84 2065 Age: 22 Score: 89.24 Drafted: University of Georgia, 2063 (2nd Round, 5th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

Tarleton’s development has went about as expected. He didn’t have much upside and time to grow, but he shot quickly through the system and is already peaked out at just 22. He’s a quality defender for FCM standards, but it’ll be interesting to find out how his bat translates into the majors. He walked a lot last season in Triple-A and would’ve walked over 70 times in a full season in Double-A in 2063. He’s shown solid gap power and a decent ability to steal bases. If he can just settle into a .260 hitter, he should become a .700 OPS bat and (as shown by the off-season trade interest) that mixed with his good defense makes him a very valuable short stop.

It Feels...Odd

"Wooo! YEAH!!! You Suck! I'm Better Than You!!!"

That's probably what some would expect from me after winning the World Series. But it's just a fist pump and a question of, "Do I tear it all down and re-start or keep the train-a-rollin'?" After the 15-second high, it feels like you've accomplished all of your Mogul goals and are simply asking, "Now What?"

I don't equate Mogul success to World Championships, so maybe this is why I feel the way I do. Stringing together consecutive winning seasons and playoff appearances is always more impressive to me. In my time in FCM I've seen honestly average GMs get a few rings while other, quality GMs get just one or even none. Sustainability those winning seasons is key.

So, what now for the Indians? Every big time prospect is now up in the majors. Everything that I tried to build up in the mid '50s is in place. Now it's going to be about re-stocking the minors and attempt to build up the factory line of prospects. All I can hope is that the winning seasons continue. Maybe then the playoff crapshoot will turn out in my favor again.

When Your Rebuild Stalls

Shortly after I picked up Cleveland, I wrote a piece on projecting and predicting my rebuild. It was late 2055 FCM time, to be exact. I suggested 2058 as the year that I legitimately compete. As it turned out, I was actually a competitor in 2057 and only teased as a Wild Card team in ’58. Now in ’59, I’m looking at a team that dabbled with winning, but couldn’t put the necessary consistent wins to be anything more than (likely) a .500 team.

As I also said in the article, it’s bad to expect to win by a certain year. It can leave you highly disappointed or even scrambling for options to make things right. Some even seem to need to re-rebuild. That’s not the case with Cleveland. Sure, I’m disappointed. I thought adding Todd Keil and Chris Eckles in the off-season was going to be the quality additions that sprung me to AL Central contention and certain AL Wild Card front runner. I think the biggest reason for the lack of (and hopefully delayed) success is a lot of slowly developing prospects.

When I first made my projections, it appeared as if I had a number of players who would be ready before the normal 23 age season. That has been quite wrong. In fact, it seems many of my prospects won’t be ready until 24 or 25 (some not until 26). So, I don’t think I’ve missed part of my window, I think it’s merely just been pushed back a couple of years. Let’s see how things are shaping out for 2060 and beyond:

THE LINEUP

Jonathon Woods, RF
Current Value: 91  2060 Age: 27  Contract Status: 1st Arbitration Year  Drafted: HS--Gary, IN, 2051 (1st Round, 20th Overall), Mets

I think I may have sold him short back in 2055. Admittedly, I don’t go browsing around team-to-team to know for certain, but he may be the premiere leadoff man in the league. If not “the”, then certainly one of the top leadoff men. He gets on base at a very high clip and while he doesn’t have blinding speed, he runs pretty well. I’ve been blessed with being able to move him around at all three outfield positions, but it’s RF not just next year, but where I think he ultimately winds up.

Erik McNeil, 2B
Current Value: 90  2060 Age: 29  Contract Status: 3rd Year of 5 Year Extension  Drafted: HS--Upper Darby, PA, 2048 (4th Round, 93rd Overall), Mariners

An original draft pick of mine in my final season with Seattle, I have mixed feelings about him. His production hasn’t been great the past two years with the Yankees and he might be regressing already.  He still has solid enough vitals to hold up for another year or two, but I seriously question if the final year of his contract will be a sunken cost. For now, I’ll be happy with his elite range and his return to ~.750 OPS baseball.

Juan Bigil, DH
Current Value: 94 2060 Age: 24 Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--El Seybo, D.R., 2054 (2nd Round, 35th Overall), Indians

I was pretty high on him on draft day. He was nearly scooped up by the Cubs in the mid-1st round. However, I couldn’t have seen this coming. After a slow start to the season, he’s picked it up as of late and in an ordinary year, he’d be right there in consideration for Rookie of the Year. For what it’s worth (as of Sim #10), he has a wOBA of .373 while ROY front runner Tod Martinson has a .376 wOBA.

Why the slight difference in wOBA when Martinson clearly out paces Bigil in OPS? According to wOBA calculations HRs are not worth twice as much as 2Bs, like OPS infers. And 3Bs aren’t all that much different than 2Bs in wOBA. It makes sense in a logical approach.

A home run does not always score twice as many runs as a double. Is a solo homer worth more than a two run double? No. Is even a grand slam worth twice as much as a bases clearing, three run, double? Of course not. Certainly on average HRs are worth more than 2Bs, but the point of wOBA is to give all play results an appropriate value.

It’s also interesting that wOBA dispels the old adage, “A walk is as good as a hit.”  Unless there’s some pretty extenuating circumstances, a base runner isn’t moving up more than one base as the result of a walk. Where it doesn’t take much imagination to see the number of scenarios where a base runner can move up more than one base as the result of a single.

So, after all of that, you can see Martinson’s great lack of 2Bs and how Bigil actually has more extra base hits than Martinson in less plate appearances results in their weighted production not being very different. However, in the future, I would expect Bigil’s home run numbers to climb considerably.

Shane Littlewood, 3B
Current Value: 93  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 1st Arbitration Year  Drafted: Auburn University, 2054 (1st Round, 21st Overall), Rays

It seems as though that he’s finally hitting up to his potential. In my park, I don’t know that he’ll ever get to 30+ home runs, but I think 30 doubles and 25 homers is a realistic expectation. That power paired with good on-base skills should keep his OPS up around the .850 mark. Defensively, you can do better, but he’s certainly a quality, above average defender.

Eric Clouse, C
Current Value: 91 2060 Age: 24 Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Philadelphia, PA, 2052 (1st Round, 3rd Overall), Indians

Injuries have kept him from putting up consistent numbers, but when he has been healthy, he’s hit pretty well. He has all the tools to succeed offensively and could eventually be one of the league’s premier offensive catchers. Defensively, he has an arm that rates just slightly below average, but other than that he’s fine. Being a true threat offensively makes slightly less than ideal defensive tolerable. Even for me.

Ernerst Shandler, 1B
Current Value: 79 2060 Age: 27 Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: Rice University, 2054 (4th Round, 117th Overall), Diamondbacks

It’s interesting how this guy has worked himself into being the incumbent for the 1B (or DH) spot. Throughout the current season, I’ve dangled with trading or even selling him. He’s gotten a couple of sims of starting action and he’s hit very well. I don’t hardly expect him to keep up his torrid .875 OPS production, but I wouldn’t write him off of being able to put up an .800 OPS. He can walk a bit and judging from his minors numbers, he should have very good gap power.

Keith Oshel, CF
Current Value: 77/90 2060 Age: 23 Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Leipzig, Germany, 2056 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Indians

He’s a guy who I expected to be up at the start of his age 22 season. Now I’m hoping that he actually hits his career window next spring, making him a candidate for a starting role. I’ve toyed with the idea of trading Oshel and while I still would (for the right return), I’m settling in on keeping him for the long haul. His tremendous range and solid speed make for a good CF. He obviously has the contact, but what else can he do offensively?  I’d expect his power numbers to resemble Jonathon Woods and Oshel finally showed some good walk totals. I’m skeptical on whether near-70 walks is legit for him or not, but if he’s at least closer to 70 walks in the minors rather than 50, it’ll go a long ways into making him a great on-base presence in the majors.

Tan Kubota, LF
Current Value: 88 2059 Age: 26 Contract Status: 3rd Year in Majors  Drafted:  University of South Carolina, 2054 (4th Round, 103rd Overall), Indians

He’s just keeping the seat warm for John McNamee. Kubota looked like he was finally coming around this season, but he’s wallowed into a slump and his numbers have fallen to no better than he’s displayed in the past. He might flourish in a more power environment. He does walk a good amount and has a good arm in LF, so there’s hope for him yet. Although, if he’s not traded this off-season, 2060 will probably be his last to show what he’s got for Cleveland as a regular starter.

Mike Lansing, SS
Current Value: 79/81 2060 Age: 26 Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Milwaukee, WI, 2054 (3rd Round, 66th Overall), Athletics

To say he’s been a disappointment would be an understatement. Not only has his development been slow, but he’s dealt with numerous random drops. To top it all off, after receiving a Sim #1 drop, he was injured during Sim #3, and eventually received another drop. Luckily he didn’t peak out and still has a small window to jump in 2060 before his June birthday. His offense will probably leave a lot to be desired and with the drops, it’s hard to predict how he can truly perform. At least he provides high quality defense. If the other bats can produce, then I may just be happy with a defensive guru at SS.

Lee Widholm, PH/CF
Current Value: 79/86 2060 Age: 24 Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Arlington, VA, 2055 (5th Round, 136th Overall), Mariners

I’m not sure if he’ll ever be great starting material, but a super 4th outfielder is just fine with me. As long as he hits his career window in the spring, he’ll be in line to be a key backup outfielder and platoon with Shandler. His offense against LHP should be fine and make a great .800+ OPS threat of the Shandholm platoon. With his lack of speed, I’m unsure about him in CF, but with how Mogul works, he may have to play there to avoid being a massacre on the corners. If he has to roam central, I’ll have to hope his great range and fielding are enough to carry him.

UP-AND-COMING LINEUP OPTIONS

John McNamee, LF
Current Value: 79/90 2060 Age: 22  Drafted: HS--Topeka, KS, 2055 (1st Round, 4th Overall), Indians

McNamee just keeps bumbling with potential. His walk rate is out of this world and overall, I see his production mirroring Jonathon Woods. McNamee won’t have the uber elite contact of Woods, but he’ll hit for more power – equalizing out the production. McNamee’s defense looks to almost perfectly align with Woods. The fondness of a future outfield of McNamee-Oshel-Woods is sky high!

Bill Royal, C/1B
Current Value: 79/90 2060 Age: 24 Drafted: HS--Knoxville, IL, 2055 (2nd Round, 40th Overall), Indians

Some may not think he’s a catcher prospect, but I believe they’re overlooking a few things. The most common gripe against him that I hear is his “81 arm.” However, he actually has an 86 arm at catcher. He’s also pre-window, so once he hits his window, he’ll have an 89 arm with the possibility of getting into the 90’s through continued development.

The next thing I hear is that his Handling is too low. Is it really? If you have a look around the league, you’ll notice most every catcher who plays other positions has a less than optimal Handling rating. This is because Mogul weights the defensive vitals in the player’s profile to the number of predicted games at each position. Royal likely has close to the same amount of predicted games at C and 1B, which is where the average of his arm at 1B and C (86+77) gives you an overall arm of 81 (actually 81.5 to be technical).

The best way to paint the picture of Handling is to encourage you to start up a new game of Mogul. Now, check through the amateur draft talent until you find a catcher with a secondary position. Go into Edit Player and remove all of his Predicted Stats at all of the positions except for (of course) catcher. You’ll notice his Handling got better after you removed the other predicted stats. Possibly extremely better. That’s because other positions weigh down the average Handling score in the player’s profile.

Back to Royal, he looks like he’ll be a late bloomer in terms of being able to truly help the major league club. He could come up in 2060 and as platoon mate for someone, but that can be covered in Free Agency if the other in-house options aren’t ready. In the end, I’d expect for his contact and eye to hover around 80 while he has solid mid 80’s power.

Noah Sauerwein, 2B
Current Value: 75/85 2060 Age: 22  Drafted: HS--Covina, CA, 2057 (3rd Round, 63rd Overall), Phillies

He’s actually one of the picks I made for Philly. I was ecstatic with the value I got on him in the 3rd round. I’m sure he’ll never walk for much and I’m unsure of the 25/25 power he’s shown in the minors so far. But, I think he will show a some power  and has a chance for his contact to come around. I got him to be my 2B of the future as I’m very high on his defense. By 2061 or ’62, he could be pushing McNeil out of a job.

Jameson MacIntyre, RF
Current Value: 71/87 2060 Age: 22 Drafted: North Carolina State University, 2058 (4th Round, 93rd Overall), Indians

In a season full of sad things, he was a reason to smile. I was thrilled to get him in last year’s draft. I loved his build and saw a great utility bench/platoon guy if he hits around 80 and starting material if he hits above that. Now with a fantastic jump this season, I can start thinking about him as a starter down the road. With others in place, as well as his poor health, DH will be his likely destination, but it’s nice to have options if pressed into playing the field.

THE ROTATION

Mike Sandilands, RHP
Current Value: 86  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 2nd Arbitration Year  Drafted: HS--Bryan, TX, 2050 (3rd Round, 70th Overall), Athletics

When I acquired him, I figured I was getting a pitcher who could be very good in the future. But I’m not sure I saw him being a sub-3.00 ERA arm for me. He’s truly been a work horse for me, averaging over seven innings per start in Cleveland. It’s pretty short and sweet with him. He keeps the ball in the park and dominates with his amazing Cutter.

Jose Vallarta, RHP
Current Value: 91  2060 Age: 24  Contract Status: 2nd Arbitration Year  Drafted: HS--Santo Domingo, D.R., 2052 (1st Round, 15th Overall), Indians

Do I have two Aces? I don’t know. Some might say, “yes.” Others might say, “no.” All of that talk humors me. What I do know is that he’s finishing up what looks to be another great season while eating up another 200 innings. He’s a very important fixture in my very young rotation and it’s crazy to think that by next July, he could already be signing his long-term extension.

Sam Lines, RHP
Current Value: 86/90  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 2nd  Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Portland, OR, 2051 (2nd Round, 46th Overall), Orioles

It’s a shame he had a random drop late in the season. It’s sort of tainted what has looked like a solid rookie season. Granted, he has had a little home runs issue, but much of that came last sim in the wake of his drop after his injury. Before that he was dominating everyone. The good news is that he should still have next season to progress and, while he won’t look like a top of the rotation arm as I had hoped, he should still be very good and reliable.

Jeff Wiggam, RHP
Current Value: 86  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: Oklahoma State University, 2056 (2nd Round, 57th Overall), Dodgers

He started off with smashing success since coming over from Cincinnati. However, his production has recently fallen off a cliff. He had a solid jump in Sim #10, which probably puts him as a nice middle of the rotation arm. I’m not too worried of rookie season struggles. I’ll hope he corrects issues moving forward next season and gives me a highly reliable core of starting pitchers.

Peter Dempsey, RHP
Current Value: 83  2060 Age: 29  Contract Status: 3rd Arbitration Year  Drafted: University of Washington, 2051 (4th Round, 120th Overall), Mets

He’s the old man , and probably soon to be odd man out, in the rotation. I’m not positive that I’d have a replacement for him, but if not for 2060, I’ll have an in-house option to replace him in 2061. If Dempsey sticks around, I’d certainly expect him to bounce back from a career worst season. His vitals and track record are too good to think that he’s really a 5.00+ ERA arm.

THE BULLPEN FIXTURES

Etienne Gremades, RHP
Current Value: 93  2060 Age: 25  Contract Status: 1st Year of 5 Year Extension  Drafted: HS--Cantanura, Venezuela, 2051 (1st Round, 4th Overall), Rays

He’s done nothing but dominate for me, so I’m thrilled to have just signed him to a very team friendly extension. Until I can get the Cleveland budget to modest proportions, these are the kind of calculated risks I’m going to have to take. One thing I’m on the fence about is if he’s the right guy for the Closer role. It just appears that Mogul doesn’t use him properly with his 60’s endurance. Even if he were in the low 50’s and still technically a “SP”, I think it’d go a long way for him being used better. Could he one day be moved to the rotation?

Will Spitzer, RHP
Current Value: 83  2060 Age: 29  Contract Status: 2nd Arbitration Year  Drafted:  Oklahoma State University, 2052 (4th Round, 104th Overall), Angels

Every other year now he’s had to have had a terrible season. But it’s the vitals and very good years that’s kept the hope that he’ll figure it out, if not this year, then next year. Throughout all of the rough seasons, he’s at least kept the ball in the park. I can only imagine what his ERA would be like if HRs were high with a near or above .300 OBA.

Alberto Barrea, LHP
Current Value: 82  2060 Age: 24  Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted:  Caibarien, Cuba, 2054 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Rangers

Without stunning vitals, I’d be a little skeptical about having a lefty as my Closer. However, he’s done exactly what I want my relievers to do – get results with keeping the ball in the ground and in the park. I like having one very good lefty in the ‘pen, so that makes him even more unlikely to assume the Closer role.

Aaron Smith, RHP
Current Value: 74/84  2060 Age: 24  Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted:  HS-- Columbus, GA, 2054 (3rd Round, 65th Overall), Pirates

I was extremely high on him and was hoping he’d drop to Cleveland in the 4th round. His insanely low HR/9 in the majors have confirmed my interest in him and he may actually be the guy who could allow Gremades to move into a role the better suites his endurance. Smith already has good movement and by the time he gets into the 80’s his movement should be above 90. He’ll wind up with good enough control to slot him and his elite movement into a high leverage role. Whether it’s Closer or Setup Man is for the future to unfold, but he’s certainly looking like a great arm to have.

UP-AND-COMING PITCHING OPTIONS

Basil Wright, RHP
Current Value: 75/84  2060 Age: 25  Drafted: Wichita State University, 2056 (2nd Round, 49th Overall), Indians

It was a shame he didn’t progress this season. However, when he’s aged in the past his peak has only dropped about two points, so it’s not the end of the world. I’m a little uncertain of where his control ends up, but he may be good enough to start. If not, his movement will certainly be good – making him a good reliever.

Ivan Traba, RHP
Current Value: 73/82  2060 Age: 25   Drafted: University of Notre Dame (2nd Round, 55th Overall), Reds

A key component of the Chris Eckles trade, I have high hopes for this likely high movement guru. Like with Wright, it was a letdown when Traba didn’t jump in ’59. But again like with Wright, Traba hasn’t shown to drop much when he ages, so there’s plenty of time to reach the potential he needs to become a highly reliable bullpen arm.

Jason Bembrick, LHP
Current Value: 73/83  2060 Age: 24  Drafted: HS--Bryan, TX, 2050 (3rd Round, 70th Overall), Athletics

At the start of the season it was becoming sad how my mid-round plethora of pitchers that was praised on the Draft Pod of ’56 wasn’t looking like it was going to net anything more than injury insurance. Then in Sim #10, Bembrick decided it’d be a good idea to have a great progression and put himself back on the map. He may be a borderline starter, but he hasn’t hit his career window yet, so there’s chance that with another good jump in the future, he could be looking at mid 80’s control and upper 80’s movement. In the least, it’s good to see him have an actual future in the majors, whether it’s in the rotation or bullpen.

Trent England, RHP
Current Value: 69/80  2060 Age: 22  Drafted: Texas Tech University, 2058 (2nd Round, 58th Overall), Indians

You wouldn’t think much of him based on his rating, but his vitals are pretty strong. I hope England turns out to be rotation worthy, and I think he will. I’m just waiting for his control to progress a little more to have me feeling confident that it peaks out in the mid 80’s. His movement should be very good, it could get into the 90’s.

Rounding Out The Season As A Rebuild

 What to do at the end of the season when you’re a rebuilding team? You’re not in the race, so this part of the season tends to drag on with 3 sims in the month of September. Yet, I find a lot of excitement, even as a rebuilding team.

First off, I love micromanaging and ever developing or changing my future plans. As I’ve shown in an earlier blog I like to chart out ALL of my players for where I think they’re going to be for the next several seasons. September is the time of year that I re-visit my projections and make edits. Maybe a guy is progressing faster than I anticipated, so I speed up his time table to the majors. Or maybe he’s developing slower, so I adjust his ascension to a slower pace.

Secondly, it’s a time of the season to give some prospects a look. If they’re ready or you plan on them being in the majors for Opening Day of next season, it’s a very good idea to stick them in the Lineup/Rotation/Bullpen for the entire month. As long as they don’t already have time in the majors, it’s almost impossible that they’ll play enough (130 at-bats or 50 IP) to lose their Rookie status for next season. Even if you think they might be a season or a jump (and a mid-season call-up), it might not be a bad idea to have them up for a sim or 2. With sims only being 10 days long, you aren’t doing much to hurt their Arbitration clock. Mogul tends to stifle players in their first season or two, so these September cups of coffee could mean when you’re competing, they’re playing at their full self down the stretch instead of still being broken in.

With August being the final month of minor league play, September is the time of year that I look at my minors and go ahead and promote guys through the system that’ll be there next season. It’s a great way to see where you may have deficiencies or open spots for the draft next season. It also guarantees that you won’t forget to do it and leave a player in too low of a level to open that following campaign.

Lastly, it’s the time of year that I start to look towards re-signings. Who do I want to extend, offer Arbitration to, who gets released, and do I have any Compensation candidates?

For many rebuilders, contract extensions aren’t likely unless the player is young and you’re about ready to compete. Getting a head start on planning for quality and consistent veterans can be a big plus in steady performance instead of breaking in a roster that’s a majority of first or second year players.

Who to offer Arbitration to? That’s a good question. You may like a guy and want him back, but it’s possible that be releasing him, you  can get him back at a team friendly $1M/2 or $2M/2 contract, which is probably a better deal than the year-by-year Arbitration process. However, if you like the guy, it’s possible that someone else likes him too, so maybe agreeing to a $2.5M Arbitration contract isn’t the worst thing since all it takes is 1 person liking him and now you’re paying him $5M/3 just to get him back. I would usually err on the side of offering Arbitration to know that I have the player and not worry about Free Agency bidding wars.

Onto Releasing/Compensation. Sometimes an Arbitration eligible guy takes too much to re-sign and it’s time to cut bait. You could always offer Arbitration and hope that you can trade him, even if it’s just for a 5th round pick, but you’re gambling on a market being there.  If there’s not, then you’re stuck with that salary and that money might’ve been able to buy you the pick you would’ve dealt him for in the first place.

I feel Compensation becomes easier as a rebuilding team. You don’t likely have a high Payroll and can absorb a higher salary if the player comes back to you.  At times it seems people don’t care about the cost of Free Agents since cash is aplenty, but other times people can be quite astute and not bite on the borderline Compensation players. But I do think the one mistake many make is becoming too greedy. $16M/2 is a high price to pay for a player and while Type A Compensation sounds very appealing, Type B still nearly guarantees you a top 75 pick. If ever there’s doubt, I just offer Type B and know I’m either getting a pick or only having to eat $8.5M instead of potentially $32M. Going from a likely low 80’s peak to a mid 80’s peak prospect just isn’t worth the risk unless you know for certain the player will be signed.

So, maybe micromanaging isn’t exactly your thing, but I would bet all of the successful GMs here at FCM do it to some degree. Maybe they don’t project out prospects and detail finances like I do, but they certainly have a plan in place and are constantly looking for ways to better their franchise.