When Your Rebuild Stalls

Shortly after I picked up Cleveland, I wrote a piece on projecting and predicting my rebuild. It was late 2055 FCM time, to be exact. I suggested 2058 as the year that I legitimately compete. As it turned out, I was actually a competitor in 2057 and only teased as a Wild Card team in ’58. Now in ’59, I’m looking at a team that dabbled with winning, but couldn’t put the necessary consistent wins to be anything more than (likely) a .500 team.

As I also said in the article, it’s bad to expect to win by a certain year. It can leave you highly disappointed or even scrambling for options to make things right. Some even seem to need to re-rebuild. That’s not the case with Cleveland. Sure, I’m disappointed. I thought adding Todd Keil and Chris Eckles in the off-season was going to be the quality additions that sprung me to AL Central contention and certain AL Wild Card front runner. I think the biggest reason for the lack of (and hopefully delayed) success is a lot of slowly developing prospects.

When I first made my projections, it appeared as if I had a number of players who would be ready before the normal 23 age season. That has been quite wrong. In fact, it seems many of my prospects won’t be ready until 24 or 25 (some not until 26). So, I don’t think I’ve missed part of my window, I think it’s merely just been pushed back a couple of years. Let’s see how things are shaping out for 2060 and beyond:

THE LINEUP

Jonathon Woods, RF
Current Value: 91  2060 Age: 27  Contract Status: 1st Arbitration Year  Drafted: HS--Gary, IN, 2051 (1st Round, 20th Overall), Mets

I think I may have sold him short back in 2055. Admittedly, I don’t go browsing around team-to-team to know for certain, but he may be the premiere leadoff man in the league. If not “the”, then certainly one of the top leadoff men. He gets on base at a very high clip and while he doesn’t have blinding speed, he runs pretty well. I’ve been blessed with being able to move him around at all three outfield positions, but it’s RF not just next year, but where I think he ultimately winds up.

Erik McNeil, 2B
Current Value: 90  2060 Age: 29  Contract Status: 3rd Year of 5 Year Extension  Drafted: HS--Upper Darby, PA, 2048 (4th Round, 93rd Overall), Mariners

An original draft pick of mine in my final season with Seattle, I have mixed feelings about him. His production hasn’t been great the past two years with the Yankees and he might be regressing already.  He still has solid enough vitals to hold up for another year or two, but I seriously question if the final year of his contract will be a sunken cost. For now, I’ll be happy with his elite range and his return to ~.750 OPS baseball.

Juan Bigil, DH
Current Value: 94 2060 Age: 24 Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--El Seybo, D.R., 2054 (2nd Round, 35th Overall), Indians

I was pretty high on him on draft day. He was nearly scooped up by the Cubs in the mid-1st round. However, I couldn’t have seen this coming. After a slow start to the season, he’s picked it up as of late and in an ordinary year, he’d be right there in consideration for Rookie of the Year. For what it’s worth (as of Sim #10), he has a wOBA of .373 while ROY front runner Tod Martinson has a .376 wOBA.

Why the slight difference in wOBA when Martinson clearly out paces Bigil in OPS? According to wOBA calculations HRs are not worth twice as much as 2Bs, like OPS infers. And 3Bs aren’t all that much different than 2Bs in wOBA. It makes sense in a logical approach.

A home run does not always score twice as many runs as a double. Is a solo homer worth more than a two run double? No. Is even a grand slam worth twice as much as a bases clearing, three run, double? Of course not. Certainly on average HRs are worth more than 2Bs, but the point of wOBA is to give all play results an appropriate value.

It’s also interesting that wOBA dispels the old adage, “A walk is as good as a hit.”  Unless there’s some pretty extenuating circumstances, a base runner isn’t moving up more than one base as the result of a walk. Where it doesn’t take much imagination to see the number of scenarios where a base runner can move up more than one base as the result of a single.

So, after all of that, you can see Martinson’s great lack of 2Bs and how Bigil actually has more extra base hits than Martinson in less plate appearances results in their weighted production not being very different. However, in the future, I would expect Bigil’s home run numbers to climb considerably.

Shane Littlewood, 3B
Current Value: 93  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 1st Arbitration Year  Drafted: Auburn University, 2054 (1st Round, 21st Overall), Rays

It seems as though that he’s finally hitting up to his potential. In my park, I don’t know that he’ll ever get to 30+ home runs, but I think 30 doubles and 25 homers is a realistic expectation. That power paired with good on-base skills should keep his OPS up around the .850 mark. Defensively, you can do better, but he’s certainly a quality, above average defender.

Eric Clouse, C
Current Value: 91 2060 Age: 24 Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Philadelphia, PA, 2052 (1st Round, 3rd Overall), Indians

Injuries have kept him from putting up consistent numbers, but when he has been healthy, he’s hit pretty well. He has all the tools to succeed offensively and could eventually be one of the league’s premier offensive catchers. Defensively, he has an arm that rates just slightly below average, but other than that he’s fine. Being a true threat offensively makes slightly less than ideal defensive tolerable. Even for me.

Ernerst Shandler, 1B
Current Value: 79 2060 Age: 27 Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: Rice University, 2054 (4th Round, 117th Overall), Diamondbacks

It’s interesting how this guy has worked himself into being the incumbent for the 1B (or DH) spot. Throughout the current season, I’ve dangled with trading or even selling him. He’s gotten a couple of sims of starting action and he’s hit very well. I don’t hardly expect him to keep up his torrid .875 OPS production, but I wouldn’t write him off of being able to put up an .800 OPS. He can walk a bit and judging from his minors numbers, he should have very good gap power.

Keith Oshel, CF
Current Value: 77/90 2060 Age: 23 Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Leipzig, Germany, 2056 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Indians

He’s a guy who I expected to be up at the start of his age 22 season. Now I’m hoping that he actually hits his career window next spring, making him a candidate for a starting role. I’ve toyed with the idea of trading Oshel and while I still would (for the right return), I’m settling in on keeping him for the long haul. His tremendous range and solid speed make for a good CF. He obviously has the contact, but what else can he do offensively?  I’d expect his power numbers to resemble Jonathon Woods and Oshel finally showed some good walk totals. I’m skeptical on whether near-70 walks is legit for him or not, but if he’s at least closer to 70 walks in the minors rather than 50, it’ll go a long ways into making him a great on-base presence in the majors.

Tan Kubota, LF
Current Value: 88 2059 Age: 26 Contract Status: 3rd Year in Majors  Drafted:  University of South Carolina, 2054 (4th Round, 103rd Overall), Indians

He’s just keeping the seat warm for John McNamee. Kubota looked like he was finally coming around this season, but he’s wallowed into a slump and his numbers have fallen to no better than he’s displayed in the past. He might flourish in a more power environment. He does walk a good amount and has a good arm in LF, so there’s hope for him yet. Although, if he’s not traded this off-season, 2060 will probably be his last to show what he’s got for Cleveland as a regular starter.

Mike Lansing, SS
Current Value: 79/81 2060 Age: 26 Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Milwaukee, WI, 2054 (3rd Round, 66th Overall), Athletics

To say he’s been a disappointment would be an understatement. Not only has his development been slow, but he’s dealt with numerous random drops. To top it all off, after receiving a Sim #1 drop, he was injured during Sim #3, and eventually received another drop. Luckily he didn’t peak out and still has a small window to jump in 2060 before his June birthday. His offense will probably leave a lot to be desired and with the drops, it’s hard to predict how he can truly perform. At least he provides high quality defense. If the other bats can produce, then I may just be happy with a defensive guru at SS.

Lee Widholm, PH/CF
Current Value: 79/86 2060 Age: 24 Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Arlington, VA, 2055 (5th Round, 136th Overall), Mariners

I’m not sure if he’ll ever be great starting material, but a super 4th outfielder is just fine with me. As long as he hits his career window in the spring, he’ll be in line to be a key backup outfielder and platoon with Shandler. His offense against LHP should be fine and make a great .800+ OPS threat of the Shandholm platoon. With his lack of speed, I’m unsure about him in CF, but with how Mogul works, he may have to play there to avoid being a massacre on the corners. If he has to roam central, I’ll have to hope his great range and fielding are enough to carry him.

UP-AND-COMING LINEUP OPTIONS

John McNamee, LF
Current Value: 79/90 2060 Age: 22  Drafted: HS--Topeka, KS, 2055 (1st Round, 4th Overall), Indians

McNamee just keeps bumbling with potential. His walk rate is out of this world and overall, I see his production mirroring Jonathon Woods. McNamee won’t have the uber elite contact of Woods, but he’ll hit for more power – equalizing out the production. McNamee’s defense looks to almost perfectly align with Woods. The fondness of a future outfield of McNamee-Oshel-Woods is sky high!

Bill Royal, C/1B
Current Value: 79/90 2060 Age: 24 Drafted: HS--Knoxville, IL, 2055 (2nd Round, 40th Overall), Indians

Some may not think he’s a catcher prospect, but I believe they’re overlooking a few things. The most common gripe against him that I hear is his “81 arm.” However, he actually has an 86 arm at catcher. He’s also pre-window, so once he hits his window, he’ll have an 89 arm with the possibility of getting into the 90’s through continued development.

The next thing I hear is that his Handling is too low. Is it really? If you have a look around the league, you’ll notice most every catcher who plays other positions has a less than optimal Handling rating. This is because Mogul weights the defensive vitals in the player’s profile to the number of predicted games at each position. Royal likely has close to the same amount of predicted games at C and 1B, which is where the average of his arm at 1B and C (86+77) gives you an overall arm of 81 (actually 81.5 to be technical).

The best way to paint the picture of Handling is to encourage you to start up a new game of Mogul. Now, check through the amateur draft talent until you find a catcher with a secondary position. Go into Edit Player and remove all of his Predicted Stats at all of the positions except for (of course) catcher. You’ll notice his Handling got better after you removed the other predicted stats. Possibly extremely better. That’s because other positions weigh down the average Handling score in the player’s profile.

Back to Royal, he looks like he’ll be a late bloomer in terms of being able to truly help the major league club. He could come up in 2060 and as platoon mate for someone, but that can be covered in Free Agency if the other in-house options aren’t ready. In the end, I’d expect for his contact and eye to hover around 80 while he has solid mid 80’s power.

Noah Sauerwein, 2B
Current Value: 75/85 2060 Age: 22  Drafted: HS--Covina, CA, 2057 (3rd Round, 63rd Overall), Phillies

He’s actually one of the picks I made for Philly. I was ecstatic with the value I got on him in the 3rd round. I’m sure he’ll never walk for much and I’m unsure of the 25/25 power he’s shown in the minors so far. But, I think he will show a some power  and has a chance for his contact to come around. I got him to be my 2B of the future as I’m very high on his defense. By 2061 or ’62, he could be pushing McNeil out of a job.

Jameson MacIntyre, RF
Current Value: 71/87 2060 Age: 22 Drafted: North Carolina State University, 2058 (4th Round, 93rd Overall), Indians

In a season full of sad things, he was a reason to smile. I was thrilled to get him in last year’s draft. I loved his build and saw a great utility bench/platoon guy if he hits around 80 and starting material if he hits above that. Now with a fantastic jump this season, I can start thinking about him as a starter down the road. With others in place, as well as his poor health, DH will be his likely destination, but it’s nice to have options if pressed into playing the field.

THE ROTATION

Mike Sandilands, RHP
Current Value: 86  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 2nd Arbitration Year  Drafted: HS--Bryan, TX, 2050 (3rd Round, 70th Overall), Athletics

When I acquired him, I figured I was getting a pitcher who could be very good in the future. But I’m not sure I saw him being a sub-3.00 ERA arm for me. He’s truly been a work horse for me, averaging over seven innings per start in Cleveland. It’s pretty short and sweet with him. He keeps the ball in the park and dominates with his amazing Cutter.

Jose Vallarta, RHP
Current Value: 91  2060 Age: 24  Contract Status: 2nd Arbitration Year  Drafted: HS--Santo Domingo, D.R., 2052 (1st Round, 15th Overall), Indians

Do I have two Aces? I don’t know. Some might say, “yes.” Others might say, “no.” All of that talk humors me. What I do know is that he’s finishing up what looks to be another great season while eating up another 200 innings. He’s a very important fixture in my very young rotation and it’s crazy to think that by next July, he could already be signing his long-term extension.

Sam Lines, RHP
Current Value: 86/90  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 2nd  Year in Majors  Drafted: HS--Portland, OR, 2051 (2nd Round, 46th Overall), Orioles

It’s a shame he had a random drop late in the season. It’s sort of tainted what has looked like a solid rookie season. Granted, he has had a little home runs issue, but much of that came last sim in the wake of his drop after his injury. Before that he was dominating everyone. The good news is that he should still have next season to progress and, while he won’t look like a top of the rotation arm as I had hoped, he should still be very good and reliable.

Jeff Wiggam, RHP
Current Value: 86  2060 Age: 26  Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted: Oklahoma State University, 2056 (2nd Round, 57th Overall), Dodgers

He started off with smashing success since coming over from Cincinnati. However, his production has recently fallen off a cliff. He had a solid jump in Sim #10, which probably puts him as a nice middle of the rotation arm. I’m not too worried of rookie season struggles. I’ll hope he corrects issues moving forward next season and gives me a highly reliable core of starting pitchers.

Peter Dempsey, RHP
Current Value: 83  2060 Age: 29  Contract Status: 3rd Arbitration Year  Drafted: University of Washington, 2051 (4th Round, 120th Overall), Mets

He’s the old man , and probably soon to be odd man out, in the rotation. I’m not positive that I’d have a replacement for him, but if not for 2060, I’ll have an in-house option to replace him in 2061. If Dempsey sticks around, I’d certainly expect him to bounce back from a career worst season. His vitals and track record are too good to think that he’s really a 5.00+ ERA arm.

THE BULLPEN FIXTURES

Etienne Gremades, RHP
Current Value: 93  2060 Age: 25  Contract Status: 1st Year of 5 Year Extension  Drafted: HS--Cantanura, Venezuela, 2051 (1st Round, 4th Overall), Rays

He’s done nothing but dominate for me, so I’m thrilled to have just signed him to a very team friendly extension. Until I can get the Cleveland budget to modest proportions, these are the kind of calculated risks I’m going to have to take. One thing I’m on the fence about is if he’s the right guy for the Closer role. It just appears that Mogul doesn’t use him properly with his 60’s endurance. Even if he were in the low 50’s and still technically a “SP”, I think it’d go a long way for him being used better. Could he one day be moved to the rotation?

Will Spitzer, RHP
Current Value: 83  2060 Age: 29  Contract Status: 2nd Arbitration Year  Drafted:  Oklahoma State University, 2052 (4th Round, 104th Overall), Angels

Every other year now he’s had to have had a terrible season. But it’s the vitals and very good years that’s kept the hope that he’ll figure it out, if not this year, then next year. Throughout all of the rough seasons, he’s at least kept the ball in the park. I can only imagine what his ERA would be like if HRs were high with a near or above .300 OBA.

Alberto Barrea, LHP
Current Value: 82  2060 Age: 24  Contract Status: 2nd Year in Majors  Drafted:  Caibarien, Cuba, 2054 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Rangers

Without stunning vitals, I’d be a little skeptical about having a lefty as my Closer. However, he’s done exactly what I want my relievers to do – get results with keeping the ball in the ground and in the park. I like having one very good lefty in the ‘pen, so that makes him even more unlikely to assume the Closer role.

Aaron Smith, RHP
Current Value: 74/84  2060 Age: 24  Contract Status: 1st Year in Majors  Drafted:  HS-- Columbus, GA, 2054 (3rd Round, 65th Overall), Pirates

I was extremely high on him and was hoping he’d drop to Cleveland in the 4th round. His insanely low HR/9 in the majors have confirmed my interest in him and he may actually be the guy who could allow Gremades to move into a role the better suites his endurance. Smith already has good movement and by the time he gets into the 80’s his movement should be above 90. He’ll wind up with good enough control to slot him and his elite movement into a high leverage role. Whether it’s Closer or Setup Man is for the future to unfold, but he’s certainly looking like a great arm to have.

UP-AND-COMING PITCHING OPTIONS

Basil Wright, RHP
Current Value: 75/84  2060 Age: 25  Drafted: Wichita State University, 2056 (2nd Round, 49th Overall), Indians

It was a shame he didn’t progress this season. However, when he’s aged in the past his peak has only dropped about two points, so it’s not the end of the world. I’m a little uncertain of where his control ends up, but he may be good enough to start. If not, his movement will certainly be good – making him a good reliever.

Ivan Traba, RHP
Current Value: 73/82  2060 Age: 25   Drafted: University of Notre Dame (2nd Round, 55th Overall), Reds

A key component of the Chris Eckles trade, I have high hopes for this likely high movement guru. Like with Wright, it was a letdown when Traba didn’t jump in ’59. But again like with Wright, Traba hasn’t shown to drop much when he ages, so there’s plenty of time to reach the potential he needs to become a highly reliable bullpen arm.

Jason Bembrick, LHP
Current Value: 73/83  2060 Age: 24  Drafted: HS--Bryan, TX, 2050 (3rd Round, 70th Overall), Athletics

At the start of the season it was becoming sad how my mid-round plethora of pitchers that was praised on the Draft Pod of ’56 wasn’t looking like it was going to net anything more than injury insurance. Then in Sim #10, Bembrick decided it’d be a good idea to have a great progression and put himself back on the map. He may be a borderline starter, but he hasn’t hit his career window yet, so there’s chance that with another good jump in the future, he could be looking at mid 80’s control and upper 80’s movement. In the least, it’s good to see him have an actual future in the majors, whether it’s in the rotation or bullpen.

Trent England, RHP
Current Value: 69/80  2060 Age: 22  Drafted: Texas Tech University, 2058 (2nd Round, 58th Overall), Indians

You wouldn’t think much of him based on his rating, but his vitals are pretty strong. I hope England turns out to be rotation worthy, and I think he will. I’m just waiting for his control to progress a little more to have me feeling confident that it peaks out in the mid 80’s. His movement should be very good, it could get into the 90’s.