The Indians dealt away 1B Jaime Archiega, RF Bret Alexander, CF Carlos Mancio, and RP Bruno Washbourne while additionally sending SP Edmund Rivera to free agency. However, even dealing away some star power and integral pieces, the Indians don’t appear to be in a complete rebuild. They’ve yet to deal away much of the younger, cost-controlled talent. For most of the players lost, there’s replacements on the way very soon.
Prospects to Rely On
3B Shaun Ketcham (ETA: 2105) – He got a cup of coffee last September and showed well enough. He’ll be expected to be the “vs RHP” platoon portion at 3B this year. (In a full season) He brings 30+ 2B, 15 HR, and 80+ BB talent to the plate. It’s tough to gauge where his average will sit. Based on the eye test, you’d think he’ll be around .260, but based off of his minor league numbers, it’ll be higher. If it’s somewhere in between, he’ll turn out around a .270/.365/.415 slash line. His defense will be interesting. He has a cannon at the hot corner and some of the best range in the game there as well (and rated among the best defensively at 91). He’ll make some errors, but they appear to be more of throwing errors than fielding errors, so can a good 1B save him of a few errors?
UT Pancho Diaz (ETA: 2106) – It seems strange to think a 74/77 rated “prospect” is someone to rely on, but being a super utility player paves the road to the majors for him. There’s nothing overly great about him, but he does a few things solidly enough that combined with his versatility, makes him any easy bench stash. (In a full season) I figure he’d be a 20-25/under 10 power guy with around 30 BB. He won’t have a very inspiring slash line (.220/.260/.300), but being able to play seven different positions is what will have him keeping a roster spot.
SS Brad Watkins (ETA: 2107) – When I drafted him in 2102, I figured that I had a good idea of what I was getting. A black hole offensive player who would take some time to develop, but I was getting a superb defender and being a lefty hitter, his bat is a little less black hole-ish. What’s his slash line? That’s tough to say. In two years (and a window boost still to come), he could look tolerable at the plate. If I had to guess, I think around .235/.275/.340 is where he’ll be. A classic #9 hitter, “Go make your out and get your glove ready!”
CF Jeremy Raley (ETA: 2106) – I really expected him to be called up at some point this season, but in a cruel twist of fate, Mogul decided to NOT give him his window boost at his age-25 season. So, he’ll be in that rare group who doesn’t see a March 1 bump until their age-26 season. The good news, is that he’s been a low peak drop guy, so he has plenty of time to develop. I’d think that his contact will overtake his power pretty soon and that he’ll peak out around mid 80s contact and low 80s power to go along with a strong on-base eye. It’s really tough to project his future slash line, since his numbers have been all over the place. However, let’s guess… .270/.360/.440 seems like something that his skills can accomplish.
RF Tommy Nelson (ETA: 2106) – While it’d be great to have him MLB ready right now at his age-25 season, he’s still developed very nicely so far. If you can’t move all that well in the outfield, at least have a good arm (and he does). He looks like he’ll be a mid-to-upper 70s contact, 90s power, and low 80s eye hitter. While you’d prefer great all-around, he’s basically the prototypical RF that you hope for; some power, some walks, and a good arm. His triple slash line of .250/.320/.480 is solid enough for someone projected to peak in the upper 80s overall.
SP Rodrigo Fergueroa (ETA: 2105) – He saw some action last season (and got a cold welcome to The Show). He should peak out around upper 80s control, ~70 power, and low 90s movement. He looks to be a low home run pitcher and with a high ground ball rate, he should be a quality pitcher regardless of where his skills peak out. In very fitting fashion, I think he’ll settle into a very fine #3 starter.
LR Nomar Hartwell (ETA: 2105) – I’m very intrigued to see how his home runs play out. He’s a low GB% guy and he doesn’t have big time power. That’s usually not a recipe for low homers, but he’s never been beaten up in the minors. That’s not to say that it couldn’t happen in the majors, but generally a high home run arm will see at least some years where they give up a lot of minor league home runs. For now he’ll fit in nicely as either the MRP or LRP roles. If his home runs do prove to be low, he could wind up as an inning-eating #5 SP.
SP Todd Chiles (ETA: 2106) – I used to hate him. Then his control jumped a good amount and I kind of like him. If his control continues to play catch up, I’ll really like him. He projects to have upper 70s control, mid 70s power, and easy 90s movement. I can easily see his control getting into the 80s. If it does, he’ll be fantastic. He looks like he’ll be a low home run pitcher and with his high ground ball rate, his kind of build should be very productive.
SP Ted Hanson (ETA: 2106) – He obviously has a very similar build to Chiles. However, with him being a 79 overall and Chiles being a 75 overall, Chiles is a good step ahead of him. Hanson does look to be a lock for being a low home run arm. He projects mid 70s control, mid 60s power, and 90s movement. Though with the strides that he’s made with control recently (and just like Chiles), I can see Hanson’s control being a better than ~75, but not quite 80. Even so, with the low home runs and high GB%, he’ll back a welcomed addition to the bottom of the rotation.
SP Omar Arredondo (ETA: 2107) – Now, he’s shown those home run issues, with almost always sporting a HR/9 over the average 1.10 rate. Naturally, it’s easy to see with a 20% ground ball and mediocre power that it’s not surprising. He’s certainly not my typical pitcher, but I felt he was worth the risk. He still has plenty of time to develop and projects pretty well. He should have low 80s control, upper 70s power, and low-to-mid 90s movement. Whether he’ll be a 4.50 ERA pitcher or a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher will likely ride on just how many dingers he gives up. If he can grow out of those issues altogether, he could be quite the quality pitcher.
Prospects That Need Some Help
1B Charlie Klimek – It’s no secret that he doesn’t have an inspiring build. Obviously, I’m not as quick to write him off as others. He only projects around low 80s contact and power with his eye right on the cusp of 80. That’s certainly not what you want at 1B. The hope is that in one of his final two years to develop, he has a very encouraging jump. If he does that, then he’s much more in line with being a startable player.
OF/1B Bradford Flynn – When I traded for him I thought he’d easily be a prospect to count on. He’s a lefty with solid power, a good eye, and good defense. However, a drop from the Andy Dragon sends him down to this list. Right now, he projects to become a mid 70s contact, mid-ish 80s power, and mid 80s eye bat. Having good defense and being a lefty helps his case, but I think he’ll need a very kind and gracious jump in the next two years to feel confident about him in the starting lineup.
OF Oscar Burlos – Will he be a starter or just a 4th OF? He’s solid enough defensively and could become a great OBP threat. The problem is that he has almost zero home run power and isn’t fast enough to rely on in CF. While I don’t pigeonhole certain kind of bat profiles at specific positions, you only need so many contact guys before you need some thump in the order. He should have solid ~15 steal potential, but that’s not enough to where you forgo a power bat either. The good thing is that he’s only dropped about two points when he’s aged, so there’s a lot of time for him to develop. His contact could shoot up to the point where it’s enough to stick him in LF.
After these guys hit the majors, the minor league cupboard would be pretty bare. Though, Cleveland is armed with eight picks in the top 62 (or higher) of the 2105 draft, so they have a great chance to restock the minor leagues for the next wave of talent.
As for how soon will Cleveland be back, making playoff runs? That’s tough to say. The AL Central looks to continue to be a bloodbath for years to come. Sometimes your well armed and stout team falls short, while your team of solid-to-good players wins 100 games. You can never truly get a good gauge of your team in the ALC. You just have to play the games.
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