Way back when Andy first posted his "Trading 101" blog, I had always thought to expand from that and add more pointers of my own, but never got around to it. Then he posted the Trading 101 - Refresher, I finally have some of those ideas to build from. If "Trading 101" is a class, think of those as a more specialized class on the subject of point #5 (Context of Trades) from the previous class.
Though, first off I'd like to touch on point #2 (exchanging available/not available/interest lists) on Trading 101. This seems to be the most abused step in the process. I do not understand it, but there are some people who actually want their trade partner to make offers and put little-to-no effort in helping out.
It's mind boggling to me as to why they wouldn't want to peruse through a team's assets to see what actually interests them. It gets frustrating on the other end as well. Even in well-meaning offers, you're at the mercy of the return magically meeting their unknown expectations.
And sure, I get the instances where you're "open to ideas", but that's at least giving some feedback as to where you are on the expected return. When someone doesn't even tell you if they're looking for picks, cash, prospects, veterans, specific positions it does no one any good.
If you're unsure of their value, as Andy has said, ask around! Many of the FCM vets will have no problem telling you what they think and it's not just new GMs asking vet GMs, many of the FCM vets will ask each other opinions as well.
#5: Context of Trades
Leverage: If it's mid-season and your player is up for Free Agency (and isn't worthy of being re-signed), you don't have much leverage for value for just half a season. You aren't likely to get face value just because a guy is performing well or has good vitals. There are other factors in your leverage. The other factor of that mid-season trade is it means the other team can no longer get compensation if it's a contract year.
Now, if a player has more years of team control left, then this gives you leverage. You don't have to settle for a mediocre offer and can opt to wait until the off-season when picks will be available and a lot of prospects will have aged, so people won't be sitting on their fancy peak rating.
Pick Value: Well, there's the Draft Pick Value Chart. This can help you get an idea of where trading up or trading down should net you in value. Obviously, the strength of the draft class is heavy factor. As well as who's currently on the board. Cash value fluctuates, usually based on if some teams are flush with cash and willing to offer stupid amounts of cash for pick. Here's my general cash value chart:
To get a feel for the current year's value, keep an eye on the trades being made. Too many times, people sell better picks for less when a different draft pick for cash deal was JUST POSTED an hour/day ago.
The value when trading picks for prospects or MLB players will always vary from GM-to-GM. But, I think in general, the good GMs aren't dealing their first unless they're getting a player that they can rely on for 5+ years or getting an elite player to cap off a playoff run, if they're older. 2nd rounders are also pretty valuable. You're still likely getting a mid 80s peak prospect that could blossom into a top player (i.e. Carlos Mancio). 3rd and 4th rounders still net useful role players or can land you players who have fallen too far. Contrary to the beliefs of some, 5th and 6th rounders are not just Comp fodder. While you fail many times, targeting the right builds can land you useful players (i.e. Luis Zamora). NEVER throw away these picks, just because they generally don't work out. The good GMs won't.
Player Age/Decline: I don't understand how not every GM looks closely at this. But each season you see a trade where a GM gives up a quality return for a player who, while he looks good now, has already been declining for a few seasons and even more decline will hinder his production and value.
Check the Vitals Tab! This will show you the ebbs and flows of a player's ratings. Now just because you see a drop, doesn't necessarily mean a player is declining. Sometimes players drop in their first year of being peaked. Every player will have at least 365 days of peak. But if you see a steady diet of drops year-after-year, you can chalk that up to decline.
You can then go back in old files and check out their previous vitals to verify that they are declining. Obviously lessened skills is a big indicator, but lowered health is another indicator.
Finances: With the salary demands bumped to +30%, finances are going to become something to look at more. If a player is overpaid, it's going to be an even worse idea to just take on that player. Consider what other comparable players make or what you could sign a similar player in Free Agency for. That's not to say that you couldn't/shouldn't consider adding an overpaid player in a trade, but you should make people add in cash or prospects/picks to offset the negative value of their contract.
Service Time/Team Control: Good GMs look at this. Personally, whether a small or large budget, it's always a factor for my teams. Not having to commit a lot of money (or getting the player for minimum) opens up your budget to afford to re-sign older players or get involved in some of the bigger name free agents.
BM 14 has a glitch where if a player has exactly 6 years, 0 days Service Time, then he's eligible for arbitration. FCM allows you to offer arbitration, offer fallback for compensation, or release to Free Agency.
Mogul does have Super 2 Status, but it's a little different than real life. Realistically, the top 22% players with at least 2 years, but not 3 years of service are Super 2 Status. This version of Mogul is still on the old top 17%, but it also has a hard line of Super 2 Status and still earning the minimum. That cut-off is 2 years, 142 days. Anyone with 2 years, 143 days or more will be arbitration eligible. Anyone with less will still earn the minimum.
Counting Service Time is quite simple. There are 184 days in a season (March 31 through September 30). A player can only accrue 172 days of service each season (172 days = 1 year). If a player is up for a full season, the extra 12 days simply don't count. You can check the opening day file to see where the player started.
Note that if there are play-in games for the Wildcard play-in game, those days will count as Service Time if a player doesn't yet have a full year.
Prospects: In my own blog, I touched on prospects jumping and then how their peak drops when they age. Based on how much their peak drops when they age, it can give you a good estimation of how many more seasons a player has to develop. Like I said on the other blog, a player isn't going to drop 7 peak one year and then drop 2 peak the next. They will follow the same general path. Checking old files to know these things can save you from buying high on a prospect that is either as good as peaked or just doesn't have enough time to develop.
Trade Market: Some will lead you to believe that this is a big factor. Honestly, this is something that I don't pay much attention to and don't allow to dictate my trades. Though there's still understanding what other teams have available or are looking for.
For example, if you have a RP available and 4 other teams have comparable relief arms. Then you need to decide if it's really worth dealing the guy now or if you can wait it out a season or two. If you really want to deal the RP now, you'll likely have to be the lowest bidder (and possibly take less than you expected). There's nothing wrong with this in certain situations.
Player Age/Decline: I don't understand how not every GM looks closely at this. But each season you see a trade where a GM gives up a quality return for a player who, while he looks good now, has already been declining for a few seasons and even more decline will hinder his production and value.
Check the Vitals Tab! This will show you the ebbs and flows of a player's ratings. Now just because you see a drop, doesn't necessarily mean a player is declining. Sometimes players drop in their first year of being peaked. Every player will have at least 365 days of peak. But if you see a steady diet of drops year-after-year, you can chalk that up to decline.
You can then go back in old files and check out their previous vitals to verify that they are declining. Obviously lessened skills is a big indicator, but lowered health is another indicator.
Finances: With the salary demands bumped to +30%, finances are going to become something to look at more. If a player is overpaid, it's going to be an even worse idea to just take on that player. Consider what other comparable players make or what you could sign a similar player in Free Agency for. That's not to say that you couldn't/shouldn't consider adding an overpaid player in a trade, but you should make people add in cash or prospects/picks to offset the negative value of their contract.
Service Time/Team Control: Good GMs look at this. Personally, whether a small or large budget, it's always a factor for my teams. Not having to commit a lot of money (or getting the player for minimum) opens up your budget to afford to re-sign older players or get involved in some of the bigger name free agents.
BM 14 has a glitch where if a player has exactly 6 years, 0 days Service Time, then he's eligible for arbitration. FCM allows you to offer arbitration, offer fallback for compensation, or release to Free Agency.
Mogul does have Super 2 Status, but it's a little different than real life. Realistically, the top 22% players with at least 2 years, but not 3 years of service are Super 2 Status. This version of Mogul is still on the old top 17%, but it also has a hard line of Super 2 Status and still earning the minimum. That cut-off is 2 years, 142 days. Anyone with 2 years, 143 days or more will be arbitration eligible. Anyone with less will still earn the minimum.
Counting Service Time is quite simple. There are 184 days in a season (March 31 through September 30). A player can only accrue 172 days of service each season (172 days = 1 year). If a player is up for a full season, the extra 12 days simply don't count. You can check the opening day file to see where the player started.
Note that if there are play-in games for the Wildcard play-in game, those days will count as Service Time if a player doesn't yet have a full year.
Prospects: In my own blog, I touched on prospects jumping and then how their peak drops when they age. Based on how much their peak drops when they age, it can give you a good estimation of how many more seasons a player has to develop. Like I said on the other blog, a player isn't going to drop 7 peak one year and then drop 2 peak the next. They will follow the same general path. Checking old files to know these things can save you from buying high on a prospect that is either as good as peaked or just doesn't have enough time to develop.
Trade Market: Some will lead you to believe that this is a big factor. Honestly, this is something that I don't pay much attention to and don't allow to dictate my trades. Though there's still understanding what other teams have available or are looking for.
For example, if you have a RP available and 4 other teams have comparable relief arms. Then you need to decide if it's really worth dealing the guy now or if you can wait it out a season or two. If you really want to deal the RP now, you'll likely have to be the lowest bidder (and possibly take less than you expected). There's nothing wrong with this in certain situations.
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