Why do admins and mods win while others circle in the middle of the pack? First, they can recognize talent. Just cause someone has a good overall or peak rating doesn't mean they're going to produce for you. "X" number rating doesn't equal "X" number of production. Power, for example, could be doubles power or home run power. While minor league numbers aren't to be 100% believed, you can get a good idea on things like 2B, HR, BB, and K. Then based on that information, you can plug in expected production from other ratings.
Second, they know how and when to trade. People who have that "trade itch" seem to screw their teams over with the desire to continually trade. The good ones will always entertain trade possibilities, but don't pounce on the opportunity unless it makes sense.
But, the biggest reason why the administrators and moderators reign supreme is that they know how prospects develop. It goes beyond being able to recognize a good prospect. In Mogul players only progress once per season. Now I know some of you are saying, "I've seen a guy jump twice in a season before". You aren't wrong, but what you've seen is a progression and a random jump.
We all know talent distribution is random. Players sometimes jump, players sometimes fall. If it's a talent distribution jump or drop, it's usually accompanied by a health change. The only time when a player's health drops is when the player is regressing. So if you notice a health change on a player that you know isn't regressing yet the jump/drop is random talent distribution.
With knowing how to recognize a random jump from a normal progression jump you can figure out if a player still has the possibility of progressing or not in the current season. This is where a lot of the elite GMs do their work. If they know a prospect has already jumped, they'll try and sell high on that prospect. On the flip side, they'll also consider this when trading for a prospect.
EXAMPLE
A 75/85 rated prospect on opening day jumps to 80/90 mid-season. Once he ages he'll likely fall back to 80/85, so buying on the 90 peak is buying into value that isn't there.
By looking at old files you can get a better sense of how much a player should drop when he ages. Seeing patterns in past development can assist in figuring out where a player should end up.
For the exampled prospect one might think they should trade an 87 or 88 rated veteran. If you continually do this you're selling yourself short and continually giving the administrators and moderators an advantage.
My advice to the league is to research. Know what you're holding. Know what you're trading for. I see people continually trading an 88 rated veteran for a prospect who'll become an 80/85 or a 92 rated veteran for a prospect who'll drop to 84/90. Now certainly age and salary can be a factor, but I'm talking about instances where age and salary are not a deterrent on trade value.
Look at the opening day file and compare the prospect to what he looks like now. Then check out old files to see how a prospect's peak usually drops when he ages. The rate at which a player's peak drops when he ages does NOT change. Mogul is consistent when aging players. You won't see a guy drop 7 one season and then only drop 2 the next. If a player has 9 true upside remaining, he may drop 5 one year and then 4 the next due to rounding, but the drops will always be within +/- 1.
If you do these things, I guarantee you'll start to make better trades.
EDIT: How To Determine If A Player Is Pre-Window
All examples are from the 2086 Sim #3 file
So, I've gone back and forth over the years on whether I should make this public or not. It can be seen as an advantage if you don't know it, but it can also be a hindrance when people know I (or others) know and assume there's plot twist about to happen to the prospect in question.
It's time to come forward and have everyone understand how to determine if a player is pre-window or not. It will help people make better decisions and not feel like they're missing out on information that others know.
First you should read this. Whether you hear it referenced as "Window Jump" or "Projected Debut Jump" or whatever else, it's the same thing. It's the +4 overall and (mostly) +3 jump to vitals that happens on March 1. As the link and file showed, it usually happens at age 23, but far from uncommon to not happen until 24. It also can be as late as age 25 or 26. I've yet to see it hit later than 26 and I've only seen it hit earlier than 23 if the player peaks out before then.
Also, remember (as the file showed) older players have the Projected Retirement drop. This is the exact opposite that prospects see. The drop will be -4 overall and -3 to each vital.
So, how exactly can you tell if a player has hit their Career Window jump or not? It's very simple. For position players open up their profile and go to the Skills tab. If their Speed rating in the Base Running section and Speed in their main vitals do NOT match, the player has NOT YET hit their Projected Debut. If their Speed ratings DO match, then the player HAS hit their Projected Debut.
For pitchers, go to the Roster Dialog/Sortable Stats (Ctl + R). You need to have Speed as a Column Heading. From there note what their Speed rating says and then open up their profile. Again, go to the Skills tab. If their Speed rating in the Base Running section and Speed in the Roster Dialog/Sortable Stats do NOT match, the player has NOT YET hit their Projected Debut. If their Speed ratings DO match, then the player HAS hit their Projected Debut.
So, how is this advantageous?
Take CF Charlie Carroll for example. He's rated 82/86 and his Speed ratings do NOT match. Since his peak is within 4 of his overall, you know that he's actually peaked in terms of development and just waiting on his Career Window jump (which will likely happen next March 1). From there you can deduce that he'll have 86 contact, 77 power, 83 speed, 75 eye, 82 arm, 85 range, and 76 fielding (health does not jump on BM 14 - FYI it does on BM 11).
This helps in knowing where he should end up. If he had already hit his Career Window jump, then it'd be possible that his contact could soar higher or that his speed would not get to 83. It's about knowing what you're getting.
On the flip side is 3B Tom Wallop 75/82. His Speed ratings match, so he's already hit his Career Window jump. His 7 upside is really 7 upside and he should have some time to actually develop.
In either scenario, it could be good or bad for whichever side of the Career Window jump the player is on. Maybe you were hoping for a lucky, better than expected jump. So, if the player is 80/84 and has not hit his Window jump yet, then you're out of luck. But if he already hit that Window jump, then a lucky jump could be in order.
If you do these things, I guarantee you'll start to make better trades.
EDIT: How To Determine If A Player Is Pre-Window
All examples are from the 2086 Sim #3 file
So, I've gone back and forth over the years on whether I should make this public or not. It can be seen as an advantage if you don't know it, but it can also be a hindrance when people know I (or others) know and assume there's plot twist about to happen to the prospect in question.
It's time to come forward and have everyone understand how to determine if a player is pre-window or not. It will help people make better decisions and not feel like they're missing out on information that others know.
First you should read this. Whether you hear it referenced as "Window Jump" or "Projected Debut Jump" or whatever else, it's the same thing. It's the +4 overall and (mostly) +3 jump to vitals that happens on March 1. As the link and file showed, it usually happens at age 23, but far from uncommon to not happen until 24. It also can be as late as age 25 or 26. I've yet to see it hit later than 26 and I've only seen it hit earlier than 23 if the player peaks out before then.
Also, remember (as the file showed) older players have the Projected Retirement drop. This is the exact opposite that prospects see. The drop will be -4 overall and -3 to each vital.
So, how exactly can you tell if a player has hit their Career Window jump or not? It's very simple. For position players open up their profile and go to the Skills tab. If their Speed rating in the Base Running section and Speed in their main vitals do NOT match, the player has NOT YET hit their Projected Debut. If their Speed ratings DO match, then the player HAS hit their Projected Debut.
For pitchers, go to the Roster Dialog/Sortable Stats (Ctl + R). You need to have Speed as a Column Heading. From there note what their Speed rating says and then open up their profile. Again, go to the Skills tab. If their Speed rating in the Base Running section and Speed in the Roster Dialog/Sortable Stats do NOT match, the player has NOT YET hit their Projected Debut. If their Speed ratings DO match, then the player HAS hit their Projected Debut.
So, how is this advantageous?
Take CF Charlie Carroll for example. He's rated 82/86 and his Speed ratings do NOT match. Since his peak is within 4 of his overall, you know that he's actually peaked in terms of development and just waiting on his Career Window jump (which will likely happen next March 1). From there you can deduce that he'll have 86 contact, 77 power, 83 speed, 75 eye, 82 arm, 85 range, and 76 fielding (health does not jump on BM 14 - FYI it does on BM 11).
This helps in knowing where he should end up. If he had already hit his Career Window jump, then it'd be possible that his contact could soar higher or that his speed would not get to 83. It's about knowing what you're getting.
On the flip side is 3B Tom Wallop 75/82. His Speed ratings match, so he's already hit his Career Window jump. His 7 upside is really 7 upside and he should have some time to actually develop.
In either scenario, it could be good or bad for whichever side of the Career Window jump the player is on. Maybe you were hoping for a lucky, better than expected jump. So, if the player is 80/84 and has not hit his Window jump yet, then you're out of luck. But if he already hit that Window jump, then a lucky jump could be in order.
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