San Diego Padres 2074 Draft Review

1st Round: #5 Overall – SP Samuel Zuniga, HS-- Saltillo, Coahuila, Mexico

Pros:  Youth, Control, “Low” Endurance, Small Aging Drop, High GB%, Balanced Repertoire

Cons:  Large Control-Movement Gap, Lacks Dominant Pitch

Analysis:  There’s a lot to like about this guy. He’s very young and only dropped two points when he aged, so he should peak later than the standard at 25. If his Control doesn’t turn out to be elite, it should be very close. While he may end up lacking a true dominant pitch, he will have at least two good pitches and two more than should be major league quality. He does have a larger Control-to-Movement gap than I’d like to see. However, he only had one season of 1.00+ HR/9 (and that was just at 1.02) and has a nice GB%. Not to mention he’s certainly young enough to grow out of any home run issues. Lastly, only being a 53 Endurance means as he’s put to Starter Usage, his Power and Movement will naturally increase with the way Mogul attempts to zap those two vitals for lesser Endurance arms. He may take awhile to reach the majors, but with patience I see no reason that he’s not a top of the rotation arm.

1st Round: #16 Overall – SP Leon Ryan, HS-- Baltimore, Maryland

Pros:  Youth, Good Control-Movement Gap, Small Aging Drop, High GB%, Health

Cons:  Two Pitches, High Home Runs

Analysis:  This was an important pick for me. With this pick representing the key return for dealing Chris Monahan, I nearly thought of needing to take other, higher peaks (which would have been position players). However, I stayed true with my plan to take pitching early. Ideally, I’d like for a pitcher’s Control to be a little better than his 59, but it is +9 from his overall, it is a nice distance from his Movement, and he’s just 18. Only having two pitches is a concern, but we have nothing proven to say a pitcher with only two offerings can’t successful. Plus he should have at least 5 Spring Trainings to learn a third pitch. His home runs are a decent concern (1.18 HR/9 as an amateur and a high of 1.48). But again, he’s very young and has a nice GB% to not make it much of an issue. Some people get concerned when a player has higher health (and it can certainly detract from a player’s upside), but his health isn’t too high and is in a nice range where it should help his stay on the field and miss the disabled list. Like Zuniga, he too only dropped two points when he aged. That was the key information in taking him over Garrett Dobbins or Scott Mortin, who were the higher peaks near the top of my best available list.

1st Round: #28 Overall – 1B/3B Garrett Dobbins, HS-- Long Beach, California

Pros:  All Hitting Vitals Above Overall, Good Splits, Health

Cons:  Power, Questionable/Risky Defense

Analysis:  He looks very pleasing with all of his hitting vitals being above his overall. I think he’ll develop a very good Eye and while I question just how good his Power will be, I believe either if his Power is lacking, it’ll be because his Contact shot way up there during development or his Power development will surprise and he’ll become a quality well-rounded bat. I also appreciate his splits being at just a -7 drop (Contact vs RHP from LHP). One thing I always do when noticing a player should have predicteds at another position is draft him in my game and then check to see what Mogul says his vitals are at each position. Now you can’t always believe it (Mogul sometimes shows screwy things), but in Dobbins’ case it makes me think he could develop into a passable Third Baseman.

2nd Round: #50 Overall – 1B Jamar Williams, Rice University

Pros:  Power, Eye

Cons:  Defense, Health

Analysis:  He reminds me of Juan Bigil. His Power and Eye being a good bit above his overall makes me think he could develop into a middle-of-the-order slugger. His health isn’t the greatest, but with his defense lacking, he may be a DH anyways. His defense won’t be anything you joyously trout out to the field, but he’d suffice if necessary. I had no intentions of taking him (especially with just having taken Dobbins), but after some pitching targets fell of the board, I couldn’t resist what could be a pick that’s looked back on as being a very good value selection.

3rd Round: #62 Overall – RP Dan English, HS-- Waukee, Iowa

Pros:  High GB%, Plus Slider

Cons:  High Home Runs

Analysis:  Reliever development can be quite volatile, but the hope is that he develops much the way Francisco Azcona did and he can turn into a starter. He won't end up with the Control that Azcona had, but he’s got a nice ground ball rate and already has three pitches with a Slider that could be very good. There is a concern with his 1.34 HR/9 from his senior year. All prior years were fine, but you can’t write off even one high home run year with Mogul. It could mean something, it could not. Though he could (and should) have the time to develop past any long ball issues. And even if his Control never comes around to rotation worthy, I think he’ll make a fine bullpen arm.

3rd Round: #74 Overall – SS Manuel Dosal, Auburn University

Pros:  Speed, Eye

Cons:  Poor Splits, Fielding, Limited Upside

Analysis:  He’s a burner and I imagine he’ll have an easy time making a major league roster. The question is just how good will he be? He’ll struggle with errors and his hitting splits are a rough -13 drop. With only 8 true upside, he may not have very long to develop. If he’s lucky enough to have 4 or more years to develop, then I think he’ll be a starting option. He already shows a good ability to draw walks and even if his Contact vs RHP isn’t great, combined with his Speed, he’ll have enough value to start. This was a bit of a gamble pick, but I felt strong enough with my prior picks to be aggressive.

5th Round: #132 Overall – SP Gaetan Trajillo, Tulane University

Pros:  Control, Fastball

Cons:  High Home Runs, Limited Upside

Analysis:  He has a nice build. All of his vitals are above his overall, so if he can get some lucky jumps, I like where his development is headed. He has shown some high home runs and being 20 years old, it’s a legitimate concern as opposed to a young, teener who should have a high number of years to develop past those concerns. Having only 16 true upside isn’t optimal for a pitcher and I would put my money on him developing to no later than age 24. If I’m wrong and he can develop beyond 24 or get some super jumps, he’ll be a quality rotation arm.