I’ve always wanted to keep up with a top prospects list.
There’s certainly a good chance that this fails to be a yearly thing like I’d
hope, but these things are always fun to look back on and see if a guy panned
out or not, as well as I thought - even if the player developed, if they have the role
I had in mind for him some years before.
Normally I’ll stick to a top 15 list. Sure, 10 is probably a
more universally accepted “Top Prospects
List”, but I think there’s always a handful more prospects (think the high
70’s and low 80’s peaks) that are worth mentioning. For this season, I have 17.
The Grading Scale
99-92 Elite:
-
This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter,
or frontline closer
91-87 Well Above:
-
This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or
quality closer
86-82 Above Average:
-
This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the
majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers
81-77 Average:
-
This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers
76-72 Below Average:
- This
player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players
71-67 Poor:
-
This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor
leaguer
17. Adam Dainty, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/79 2065 Age: 23 Score: 79.33 Drafted: Auburn University, 2063 (3rd Round, 64th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 63/79 2065 Age: 23 Score: 79.33 Drafted: Auburn University, 2063 (3rd Round, 64th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
He’s had his ups-and-downs. He’s looked like a legitimate
starter at some points of his development, however, a few random drops have put
him back in the platoon category. He’s going to be a late bloomer, but he
projects to have upper 80’s power and will have serviceable range. The big
question will be if his contact hits on his low-to-mid 70’s future billing.
16. Ray Wieczorek, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/78 2065 Age: 20 Score: 79.34 Drafted: HS--Newton, MA, 2061 (6th Round, 157th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068
Current Value: 63/78 2065 Age: 20 Score: 79.34 Drafted: HS--Newton, MA, 2061 (6th Round, 157th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068
He’s been the ultimate project. Taken just as some 60’s peak
16 year old teener-bopper going on 5 years now, he’s managed to increase his
peak every season. It’s possible that he’ll only be a slap-hitting base
clogger, but there’s potential for his contact to really blossom into something
great if he continues that trend of increasing his peak every year.
15. Jason York, 2B/OF
Current Value: 71/79 2065 Age: 25 Score: 80.75 Drafted: HS--Hamburg, AR, 2059 (3rd Round, 80th Overall), Pirates Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 71/79 2065 Age: 25 Score: 80.75 Drafted: HS--Hamburg, AR, 2059 (3rd Round, 80th Overall), Pirates Projected Call-Up: 2067
Initially added as just a throw-in reserve hopeful outfielder
in the Marcus Aguilar deal, I quickly became interested in his “95 Range at 2B.”
He never walked more than 39 times in a season until drawing 50 free passes
last year, so I’m interested to see if he could duplicate those numbers. Plus,
while he doesn’t hit many homers, he had back-to-back 40+ double seasons. If all
that holds to be true and he proves to be viable at second, it’s possible that
with being a lefty, he could make up a cheap, underrated platoon with a righty.
14. Eric Grimard, 3B
Current Value: 76/82 2065 Age: 25 Score: 81.91 Drafted: University of Miami, 2061 (1st Round, 27th Overall), Cubs Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 76/82 2065 Age: 25 Score: 81.91 Drafted: University of Miami, 2061 (1st Round, 27th Overall), Cubs Projected Call-Up: 2067
To say his development has not gone to plan would be an understatement.
He has the tools and build to be just as good as Umberto Trancosa, now on the
Pirates. But, the sluggish development is also why I was able to pick him up.
He’s good enough defensively that if his offense comes around to being remotely
tolerable, he could still be a starting option. Judging from his peak drops
when he ages, he’ll have two more years to develop, so there’s certainly time
for him to get there.
13. Alan Dyer, RP
Current Value: 79/84 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.34 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2062 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066
Current Value: 79/84 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.34 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2062 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066
He was a gamble a few years ago that isn’t really panning
out as I had hoped. He didn’t have an optimal build on draft day, but late in
the second round I felt it was worth it to see if his control could progress
better than expected. Though his control isn’t where I wanted it, he’s still a
valuable piece as a middle/long man who can spot start. And just maybe that
control will get the jump I’m hoping for this season?
12. Mike Hansen, 2B
Current Value: 75/83 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.35 Drafted: HS--Cincinnati, OH, 2057 (1st Round, 5th Overall), Orioles Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 75/83 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.35 Drafted: HS--Cincinnati, OH, 2057 (1st Round, 5th Overall), Orioles Projected Call-Up: 2067
I remember getting him from Hick and he was hesitant,
because he thought Hansen might become elite. I sincerely didn’t think he’d be
elite, but I didn’t think he’d receive a few random drops and really stifle his
development quite like this. I figured he’d be an above average starter who
could go on streak of being very reliable. Now it looks like I’m just hoping he
peaks into a startable player. There’s a chance Jason York jumps him next
season and Hansen is the platoon vs LHP.
11. Jose Cauozos, C
Current Value: 81/84 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.45 Drafted: University of Washington, 2062 (1st Round, 17th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066
Current Value: 81/84 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.45 Drafted: University of Washington, 2062 (1st Round, 17th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066
He’s been on the receiving end of two depressing drops (one happening
over the past off-season sim). On Draft Day, it was him or Neil Whitelaw and it’s
certain that no matter what happens with Cauozos, Whitelaw would have been the
better choice. Though with a good jump, Cauozos can hit the starting mark, it
does appear he’s destined to be a platoon mate.
10. Brad Moreland, OF
Current Value: 80/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.40 Drafted: Rice University, 2062 (5th Round, 123rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065
Current Value: 80/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.40 Drafted: Rice University, 2062 (5th Round, 123rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065
I drafted him expecting just a viable bench outfielder, but
he looks to be one jump away from being a starting worthy hitter. It may be
tough for him to keep a starting job with others coming up on the list, but
starting for the next few seasons is certainly possible. He doesn’t do anything
overly great, but he’s fairly balanced all-around with the ability to play all
three outfield spots.
09. Adam
Wakefield, LF
Current Value: 71/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 84.00 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 71/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 84.00 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
He has that same build as John McNamee, Jonathon Woods, and
Sam McCluskey, though Wakefield just hasn’t taken off like the other three
have. He should still develop into an everyday player. He’ll be a fine
defensive player in left, he has decent speed, he’ll walk a lot, and should wallop
40+ doubles. He’s the beginning of some quietly impressive outfield prospects
in the upper levels of the system.
08. Felipe Baires, CF
Current Value: 73/79 2065 Age: 22 Score: 84.07 Drafted: HS--San Pedro de Macoris, D.R., 2062 (3rd Round, 11th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066
Current Value: 73/79 2065 Age: 22 Score: 84.07 Drafted: HS--San Pedro de Macoris, D.R., 2062 (3rd Round, 11th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066
I go back and forth on thinking he could be the next Gary
Bennion and then wondering if his contact will fall just short. Luckily a three
month injury didn’t keep him from progressing last season and he still on pace
to peak out above 90 contact to go along with good speed and amazing range.
Here’s to hoping that contact peaks at 95+.
07. Alex
Espitice, C/1B
Current Value: 86/90 2065 Age: 27 Score: 84.61 Drafted: HS--Santurce, Puerto Rico, 2057 (3rd Round, 73rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065
Current Value: 86/90 2065 Age: 27 Score: 84.61 Drafted: HS--Santurce, Puerto Rico, 2057 (3rd Round, 73rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065
Maybe he should be my starting catcher. Even though I know
he doesn’t actually have just 72 handling -
that’s a weighted average of his true catching handling and the ~35
handling Mogul gives non-catching positions since Espitice also plays first. He’s
certainly overrated, but he’s got a solid, balanced bat. We’ll see how long the
ultra defensive catching platoon lasts. I won’t hesitate to bring him up if the
other two can’t manage to hit. There should certainly be a future role for him
in some capacity.
06. Carlos Serps, SP
Current Value: 65/82 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.03 Drafted: Long Beach State University, 2064 (1st Round, 8th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 65/82 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.03 Drafted: Long Beach State University, 2064 (1st Round, 8th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
Apparently I just shouldn’t trade up to get the player I
want. It didn’t work with Cauozos and after being selected, Serps dropped and then
never progressed in 2064. Luckily, he shouldn’t peak out for awhile, so there’s
still time to rebound, but right now, he looks more like a middle rotation arm,
than a top of the rotation starter that he looked prior to being picked last
season. He should wind up being a good control-movement pitcher who’ll likely
always outpitch his vitals. Just how good he’ll be is the question.
05. Vic Vega, RF/CF
Current Value: 70/86 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.24 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 70/86 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.24 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067
With the other options that could roam central, Vega likely
slides to right field. His bat has lagged in development a bit, but he’s rather
balanced and just needs one big break.
So far, he’s shown big doubles power and only so-so home run ability. It’ll
be interesting to see if that changes or if he’ll just be a gap power hitter.
04. Tony Beiler, C
Current Value: 69/86 2065 Age: 23 Score: 85.69 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2067
Current Value: 69/86 2065 Age: 23 Score: 85.69 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2067
It was risky getting him and no other reliable piece for
Marcus Aguilar. We know he’s going to be great defensively, but he should have low 80’s contact and power
with a high 70’s eye. That’s not a great bat, but it’s certainly serviceable for
a defensive-minded catcher. With Jose Cauozos’ development faltering, he’s now
the catcher of the future.
03. Joe Schultz, SP
Current Value: 80/91 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.99 Drafted: HS--Boston, MA, 2060 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Braves Projected Call-Up: 2065
Current Value: 80/91 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.99 Drafted: HS--Boston, MA, 2060 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Braves Projected Call-Up: 2065
The former #2 pick in the 2060 draft has bounced around a
little, but I hope he sticks with the Indians. Back on Draft Day, I cautioned
that his high health may stunt his growth a little. Barring any better than
expected jumps in the next couple of seasons, I think my warning will be true.
Still, he’ll be a fine pitcher and the projections have him with mid 80’s
control and upper 80’s to low 90’s movement.
02. Paul Tobey, SP
Current Value: 51/85 2065 Age: 20 Score: 88.16 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2069 or Later
Current Value: 51/85 2065 Age: 20 Score: 88.16 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2069 or Later
A great trip to Winterball put him back on the map after an
early off-season drop quieted the excitement about him. He’s still very raw,
but the upside on him is great. I hate to say that he has top of the rotation
potential just yet, as he only has mid 80’s control and movement projections. However,
his ceiling is there and if he reaches a 90’s overall, he’ll look very good and
be an arm playoff contenders would like to position atop their rotation.
01. Luke
Tarleton, SS
Current Value: 84 2065 Age: 22 Score: 89.24 Drafted: University of Georgia, 2063 (2nd Round, 5th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065
Current Value: 84 2065 Age: 22 Score: 89.24 Drafted: University of Georgia, 2063 (2nd Round, 5th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065
Tarleton’s development has went about as expected. He didn’t
have much upside and time to grow, but he shot quickly through the system and
is already peaked out at just 22. He’s a quality defender for FCM standards,
but it’ll be interesting to find out how his bat translates into the majors. He
walked a lot last season in Triple-A and would’ve walked over 70 times in a
full season in Double-A in 2063. He’s shown solid gap power and a decent
ability to steal bases. If he can just settle into a .260 hitter, he should
become a .700 OPS bat and (as shown by the off-season trade interest) that
mixed with his good defense makes him a very valuable short stop.
No comments:
Post a Comment