Saturday, July 30, 2016

2065 Cleveland Indians Top Prospects

I’ve always wanted to keep up with a top prospects list. There’s certainly a good chance that this fails to be a yearly thing like I’d hope, but these things are always fun to look back on and see if a guy panned out or not, as well as I thought - even if the player developed, if they have the role I had in mind for him some years before.

Normally I’ll stick to a top 15 list. Sure, 10 is probably a more universally accepted “Top Prospects List”, but I think there’s always a handful more prospects (think the high 70’s and low 80’s peaks) that are worth mentioning. For this season, I have 17.

The Grading Scale
99-92 Elite:
- This player will be one of the best players at his position, top tier starter, or frontline closer

91-87 Well Above:
- This player will be a very good everyday starter, top of rotation arm, or quality closer

86-82 Above Average:
- This player is the type that fields the majority of starting jobs in the majors, quality mid-rotation starters, or second-tier relievers

81-77 Average:
- This player is startable or a good platoon partner, bottom of the rotation starters, or middle/long relievers

76-72 Below Average:
- This player is where you'll find most of your average backups and depth players

71-67 Poor:
- This player is a fringe major leaguer and most likely will be a career minor leaguer

17. Adam Dainty, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/79  2065 Age: 23 Score: 79.33 Drafted: Auburn University, 2063 (3rd Round, 64th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He’s had his ups-and-downs. He’s looked like a legitimate starter at some points of his development, however, a few random drops have put him back in the platoon category. He’s going to be a late bloomer, but he projects to have upper 80’s power and will have serviceable range. The big question will be if his contact hits on his low-to-mid 70’s future billing.

16. Ray Wieczorek, LF/RF
Current Value: 63/78  2065 Age: 20  Score: 79.34 Drafted: HS--Newton, MA, 2061 (6th Round, 157th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2068

He’s been the ultimate project. Taken just as some 60’s peak 16 year old teener-bopper going on 5 years now, he’s managed to increase his peak every season. It’s possible that he’ll only be a slap-hitting base clogger, but there’s potential for his contact to really blossom into something great if he continues that trend of increasing his peak every year.

15. Jason York, 2B/OF
Current Value: 71/79  2065 Age: 25 Score: 80.75 Drafted: HS--Hamburg, AR, 2059 (3rd Round, 80th Overall), Pirates Projected Call-Up: 2067

Initially added as just a throw-in reserve hopeful outfielder in the Marcus Aguilar deal, I quickly became interested in his “95 Range at 2B.” He never walked more than 39 times in a season until drawing 50 free passes last year, so I’m interested to see if he could duplicate those numbers. Plus, while he doesn’t hit many homers, he had back-to-back 40+ double seasons. If all that holds to be true and he proves to be viable at second, it’s possible that with being a lefty, he could make up a cheap, underrated platoon with a righty.

14. Eric Grimard, 3B
Current Value: 76/82 2065 Age: 25  Score: 81.91 Drafted: University of Miami, 2061 (1st Round, 27th Overall), Cubs Projected Call-Up: 2067

To say his development has not gone to plan would be an understatement. He has the tools and build to be just as good as Umberto Trancosa, now on the Pirates. But, the sluggish development is also why I was able to pick him up. He’s good enough defensively that if his offense comes around to being remotely tolerable, he could still be a starting option. Judging from his peak drops when he ages, he’ll have two more years to develop, so there’s certainly time for him to get there.

13. Alan Dyer, RP
Current Value: 79/84 2065 Age: 25 Score: 82.34 Drafted: Louisiana State University, 2062 (2nd Round, 59th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

He was a gamble a few years ago that isn’t really panning out as I had hoped. He didn’t have an optimal build on draft day, but late in the second round I felt it was worth it to see if his control could progress better than expected. Though his control isn’t where I wanted it, he’s still a valuable piece as a middle/long man who can spot start. And just maybe that control will get the jump I’m hoping for this season?

12. Mike Hansen, 2B
Current Value: 75/83 2065 Age: 25  Score: 82.35 Drafted: HS--Cincinnati, OH, 2057 (1st Round, 5th Overall), Orioles Projected Call-Up: 2067

I remember getting him from Hick and he was hesitant, because he thought Hansen might become elite. I sincerely didn’t think he’d be elite, but I didn’t think he’d receive a few random drops and really stifle his development quite like this. I figured he’d be an above average starter who could go on streak of being very reliable. Now it looks like I’m just hoping he peaks into a startable player. There’s a chance Jason York jumps him next season and Hansen is the platoon vs LHP.

11. Jose Cauozos, C
Current Value: 81/84 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.45 Drafted: University of Washington, 2062 (1st Round, 17th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

He’s been on the receiving  end of two depressing drops (one happening over the past off-season sim). On Draft Day, it was him or Neil Whitelaw and it’s certain that no matter what happens with Cauozos, Whitelaw would have been the better choice. Though with a good jump, Cauozos can hit the starting mark, it does appear he’s destined to be a platoon mate.

10. Brad Moreland, OF
Current Value: 80/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 83.40 Drafted: Rice University, 2062 (5th Round, 123rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

I drafted him expecting just a viable bench outfielder, but he looks to be one jump away from being a starting worthy hitter. It may be tough for him to keep a starting job with others coming up on the list, but starting for the next few seasons is certainly possible. He doesn’t do anything overly great, but he’s fairly balanced all-around with the ability to play all three outfield spots.

09. Adam Wakefield, LF
Current Value: 71/83 2065 Age: 23 Score: 84.00 Drafted: HS--Kingsburg, CA, 2061 (2nd Round, 48th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

He has that same build as John McNamee, Jonathon Woods, and Sam McCluskey, though Wakefield just hasn’t taken off like the other three have. He should still develop into an everyday player. He’ll be a fine defensive player in left, he has decent speed, he’ll walk a lot, and should wallop 40+ doubles. He’s the beginning of some quietly impressive outfield prospects in the upper levels of the system.

08. Felipe Baires, CF
Current Value: 73/79 2065 Age: 22 Score: 84.07 Drafted: HS--San Pedro de Macoris, D.R., 2062 (3rd Round, 11th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2066

I go back and forth on thinking he could be the next Gary Bennion and then wondering if his contact will fall just short. Luckily a three month injury didn’t keep him from progressing last season and he still on pace to peak out above 90 contact to go along with good speed and amazing range. Here’s to hoping that contact peaks at 95+.

07. Alex Espitice, C/1B
Current Value: 86/90 2065 Age: 27 Score: 84.61 Drafted: HS--Santurce, Puerto Rico, 2057 (3rd Round, 73rd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

Maybe he should be my starting catcher. Even though I know he doesn’t actually have just 72 handling -  that’s a weighted average of his true catching handling and the ~35 handling Mogul gives non-catching positions since Espitice also plays first. He’s certainly overrated, but he’s got a solid, balanced bat. We’ll see how long the ultra defensive catching platoon lasts. I won’t hesitate to bring him up if the other two can’t manage to hit. There should certainly be a future role for him in some capacity.

06. Carlos Serps, SP
Current Value: 65/82 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.03 Drafted: Long Beach State University, 2064 (1st Round, 8th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

Apparently I just shouldn’t trade up to get the player I want. It didn’t work with Cauozos and after being selected, Serps dropped and then never progressed in 2064. Luckily, he shouldn’t peak out for awhile, so there’s still time to rebound, but right now, he looks more like a middle rotation arm, than a top of the rotation starter that he looked prior to being picked last season. He should wind up being a good control-movement pitcher who’ll likely always outpitch his vitals. Just how good he’ll be is the question.

05. Vic Vega, RF/CF
Current Value: 70/86 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.24 Drafted: University of Miami, 2063 (1st Round, 28th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2067

With the other options that could roam central, Vega likely slides to right field. His bat has lagged in development a bit, but he’s rather balanced and just needs one big break.  So far, he’s shown big doubles power and only so-so home run ability. It’ll be interesting to see if that changes or if he’ll just be a gap power hitter.

04. Tony Beiler, C
Current Value: 69/86 2065 Age: 23 Score: 85.69 Drafted: Texas A&M University, 2062 (3rd Round, 24th Overall), Mets Projected Call-Up: 2067

It was risky getting him and no other reliable piece for Marcus Aguilar. We know he’s going to be great defensively,  but he should have low 80’s contact and power with a high 70’s eye. That’s not a great bat, but it’s certainly serviceable for a defensive-minded catcher. With Jose Cauozos’ development faltering, he’s now the catcher of the future.

03. Joe Schultz, SP
Current Value: 80/91 2065 Age: 22 Score: 85.99 Drafted: HS--Boston, MA, 2060 (1st Round, 2nd Overall), Braves Projected Call-Up: 2065

The former #2 pick in the 2060 draft has bounced around a little, but I hope he sticks with the Indians. Back on Draft Day, I cautioned that his high health may stunt his growth a little. Barring any better than expected jumps in the next couple of seasons, I think my warning will be true. Still, he’ll be a fine pitcher and the projections have him with mid 80’s control and upper 80’s to low 90’s movement.

02. Paul Tobey, SP
Current Value: 51/85 2065 Age: 20 Score: 88.16 Drafted: HS--Brooklyn, NY, 2064 (2nd Round, 32nd Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2069 or Later

A great trip to Winterball put him back on the map after an early off-season drop quieted the excitement about him. He’s still very raw, but the upside on him is great. I hate to say that he has top of the rotation potential just yet, as he only has mid 80’s control and movement projections. However, his ceiling is there and if he reaches a 90’s overall, he’ll look very good and be an arm playoff contenders would like to position atop their rotation.

01. Luke Tarleton, SS
Current Value: 84 2065 Age: 22 Score: 89.24 Drafted: University of Georgia, 2063 (2nd Round, 5th Overall), Indians Projected Call-Up: 2065

Tarleton’s development has went about as expected. He didn’t have much upside and time to grow, but he shot quickly through the system and is already peaked out at just 22. He’s a quality defender for FCM standards, but it’ll be interesting to find out how his bat translates into the majors. He walked a lot last season in Triple-A and would’ve walked over 70 times in a full season in Double-A in 2063. He’s shown solid gap power and a decent ability to steal bases. If he can just settle into a .260 hitter, he should become a .700 OPS bat and (as shown by the off-season trade interest) that mixed with his good defense makes him a very valuable short stop.

No comments:

Post a Comment