Handicapping The Insanely Competetive AL East Race

I'm not going to say that the AL East is the best division in the league.  Nor am I sure it's one of the 5 best.  But as we wind down the final 9 days of the season, there's no denying it's the most interesting and most wide open race remaining.  An argument could certainly be made for the NL Wild Card, but at this point, that's most likely a race to find out who faces Cincinnati in the Wild Card Play-in game.  So when all is said and done, one of Cincinnati, New York, and San Diego (as it stands now) will travel to take on the Hokey Marlins Machine.  But back to the topic of this article...

Four teams in the AL East are separated by less than one game as we hit the home stretch of the 2060 regular season.  For these four teams, this is the one way into the postseason.  The AL Central will almost assuredly produce both Wild Card combatants in the Indians/Tigers and Royals.  Texas has ambitions of crashing that party, but with the Orioles, Rays, and Red Sox all at least 4.5 games back of that second Wild Card spot with 8 or 9 games to play, this is it.

 

So that leaves four teams fighting for one playoff spot.  And what makes that kind of race even better?  Most of the four teams' remaining games come against each other.  New York, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay play all of their remaining games against division opponents.  Boston plays just three more division games, with their other five coming against Colorado and Houston.

So, which team has the best chance of winning the division and getting the automatic bid to the postseason, and who is most likely to finish fourth?  God only knows.  Run Differential is usually a good indicator of a team's performance, but that can almost be thrown out in this case.  The Orioles and Rays both have Run Differentials of roughly +40.  Meanwhile, Boston's -3 would more accurately describe a .500 team, and New York's -37 RD.  Conventional wisdom would suggest that (to this point) Baltimore and Tampa Bay would be leading the way, with Boston a few games back and New York struggling to stave off elimination.  The law of averages exists for a reason.  But that's why they play the game.

ADVANTAGE: BAL/TBR

DISADVANTAGE: NYY

Alright, so let's take a look at the team's remaining games, to see who has the easiest schedule.  That distinction goes to the Yankees.  New York plays three games each against the Orioles and Rays, before closing the season with three against the winless-in-their-last-ten Blue Jays.  The Red Sox and Rays are a toss-up.  The Rays also play the fifth place Blue Jays, but only two more times.  Then they close the season with three against the Yankees and Orioles.  The Red Sox' remaining games are against better teams than the Blue Jays, but play five of eight against teams with losing records.  Overall, the Orioles have the toughest remaining schedule, and are the only team who face three teams with winning records.

Here's the "strength of schedule" for the four competing teams, by winning percentage of remaining opponents:

NYY: .470

BAL: .527

TBR: .485

BOS: .489

ADVANTAGE: NYY

DISADVANTAGE: BAL

But it's not all about numbers.  There's a lot to be said for teams on hot streaks or teams who aren't battling injuries.  Where does this leave our four teams with 9 days left to make a last push?

NYY:

Last 10: 7-3, Last 20: 12-8

Injuries:

RF Alex Saxe (13 days): .254/.350/.482, 32 HR, 74 RBI

SS Juan Montero (7 days): .241/.316/..299, 1 HR, 33 RBI

SP Orlando Rivera (7 days): 10-5, 3.69 ERA, 1.48 WHIP

BAL:

Last 10: 6-4, Last 20: 11-9

Injuries:

SP Kevin Gully (10 days): 13-8, 3.63 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

TBR: 

Last 10: 3-7, Last 20: 10-10

Injuries:

SP Jordan Herriage (11 Days): 13-4, 3.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

SP John Williams (9 Days): 14-12, 4.09 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

SP Tony Norris (6 Days): 3-14, 6.19 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

BOS:

Last 10: 8-2, Last 20: 14-6

Injuries:

1B Alan McGaw (9 days): .221/.301/.329, 6 HR, 38 RBI

ADVANTAGE: BOS

DISADVANTAGE: NYY/TBR

 

Finally, let's take a look at JHC's 100 season simulations to see what the machine projects:

 

The machine agrees with my findings except for the Yankees.  All this work, all this writing, and all this research... and my answer to who is going to be crowned AL East Champion is about as clear as 100 seasons simulating the final 9 days of the regular season.  It's going to be utter chaos.  And we won't have one winner.  Or maybe even two.  The AL East crown will be decided in game 163, at the earliest.

MY PREDICTION:
BAL: 86-76 -> 5-4 Last 9 (2-1 vs NYY, 1-2 vs BOS, 2-1 vs TBR)

BOS: 86-76 -> 5-3 Last 8 (1-1 vs COL, 2-1 vs BAL, 2-1 vs HOU)

NYY: 86-76 -> 5-4 Last 9 (1-2 vs BAL, 2-1 vs TBR, 2-1 vs TOR)

TBR: 85-77 -> 4-4 Last 8 (2-0 vs TOR, 1-2 vs NYY, 1-2 vs BAL)

Any way you slice it, it's going to be a fun LIVE sim Sunday night.