2107 FCM Top 200 Prospects

01. Zack Hecht, SP

2107 Value: 84/89 | Drafted: 2102 (Red Sox) – 1st Round, 3rd Overall

Projected Build: 95 Con, 65 Pow, 96 Mov | FV: 65

 

This ranking and future value is 100% based on Hecht becoming a starter. It would be a tragedy to leave him in the bullpen. First off, his endurance is so close to crossing the line that it seems obvious. Secondly, being picked third overall should be for 200 innings, not ~60 innings. Lastly, he has a build that would be dynamite as in the rotation. Top notch control, movement, and ground ball rates are things to adore in the Mogul world. Put great infield defense behind him and he’ll be an annual contender for a Cy Young.

 

02. Ross Diller, SP

2107 Value: 87/94 | Drafted: 2103 (Mets) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 99 Con, 86 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 65

               

Diller is that prospect about to make a big impact in the majors.  He has had a good progression since being drafted with a big jump in his development at 19 and steady increases since.  His numbers in the minors have continued to get better as each year passes as well. However, he is not without some questions.  His Homerun totals have been higher than they were in his Amateur stats, while they remain around one per 9 IP, it has been a bit higher than most would like to see.  If it doesn’t become a problem in the majors, then he should be an Ace with a long career ahead of him.

               

03. Brian Woodworth, SP

2107 Value: 78/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Pirates) – 1st Round, 14th Overall

Projected Build: 95 Con, 85 Pow, 94 Mov | FV: 65

               

Woodworth projects to be terribly similar to our last prospect in Diller. While Woodworth projects to be slightly lower vital wise, there are some differences that might point to a career that could potentially have a few more bumps in it.  But first, Woodworth has had a nice upward trending progression since he was drafted with a steady stair climb progression that is ideal for prospects. The problem with Woodworth is that the concerns of home runs being a issue have not gone away. If anything, they have gotten worse (as has his K:BB ratio).  In his minor league experience so far, he has given up well over 1.5 HR/9 and his K:BB ratio is coming in at 2:1, which is down from the near 3:1 it had been prior.  While it might be too early to tell, I don’t think Woodworth becomes the Ace you want and is outpitched by those prospects above him (potentially many that are yet to come on our list).

 

04. Marvin Wessel, SP

2107 Value: 88/93 | Drafted:Drafted: 2101 (Marlins) – 1st Round, 11th Overall

Projected Build: 93 Con, 79 Pow, 97 Mov | FV: 65

               

Wessel has been moved around quiet a bit since he was drafted, fortunately that has not had a negative effect on his development as it has continued to slowly increase to this point. We are on the verge of him only facing MLB batters from henceforth.  His minor league numbers have been good, his homeruns are on the same level as Diller’s and his K:BB ratio has gotten steadily better each year to a near 3:1 level last season.  While his build makes you want him to be a GB% pitcher, he is not and appears to have a good career ahead of him. The last step in his development will determine whether he becomes an Ace or a good #1 pitcher (and yes there is a difference).

 

05. Jason Archie, SP

2107 Value: 71/94 | Drafted: 2104 (Yankees) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 90 Con, 79 Pow, 98 Mov | FV:60

               

If Archie continues along his progression path then he should end up a special SP. He has yet to have that “big” jump year that could cement his status as one of the elites in the file. As we see with some prospects on this list his homerun numbers have increased in his transitions to MiLB, however they do seem to be pacing with the increase in IP, so there is not a lot of real concern there. His K:BB ratio has gone down quiet a bit, however with the possibility of him transitioning into a ground ball pitcher, then that won't be much of a concern long-term. All-in-all his stats have been poor, but he is only 20 turning 21 this May, so there is a great amount of upside with him. I would expect him to meet most (if not all of that upside) and settle nicely into the top of a rotation in a few years.

06. Perry Bradridge, SP

2107 Value: 82/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Rockies) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 74 Pow, 100 Mov | FV:60

               

Bradridge is a fast-climbing prospect that has been firing on all cylinders since being drafted and is just one step away from making his MLB debut.  The concern with him to date has been a influx of home runs allowed this last season, giving up the gopher ball at a 1.37 HR/9 clip. While not super high, it’s potentially a bit on a concern for a GB pitcher.  If that season was an outlier and he continues on his fast-paced progression, he will be not only in the MLB next season, but will potentially start it at the top of this very list.

 

07. Paul Brown, 1B

2107 Value: 86/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Orioles) – 1st Round, 2nd Overall

Projected Build: 75 Con, 100 Pow, 100 Eye | 67 Spd, 80 Def | FV: 60

           

Brown will always be compared to the player taken 11 picks after him in the 2105 draft (Joseph Aldridge). However, he was the first to become MLB ready and he should be seeing a steady dose of MLB pitching this year.  His development has been steady to this point as he enters his peak window this year so this year, we shall see what we have in Brown.  If he gets that last bump in this development, we get the perennial all-star Baltimore saw when they drafted him or if he becomes just another lefty mashing 1B.

 

08. Marc Micone, SP

2107 Value: 89/93 | Drafted: 2103 (Rockies) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 86 Pow, 93 Mov | FV: 60

               

Micone is a prospect that has had the inverse head and shoulders development, as in his age 21 season he looked horrible before rebounding to his previous track record.  Micone is set for the MLB this year and ready to face MLB hitting on the one a week schedule.  His last season was his best effort in not giving up to many homeruns as he gave up under 1.00 HR/9. However, previous years saw much higher totals, so we are wary on what kind of mark he will make on the MLB. His K:BB ratio has been steady at over 2:1 with some seasons pushing 3:1. He isn’t a power pitching build nor he is a GB build and without him having picked a lane, we are not sure how he plays out. If he gets one last good bump in his development then we expect a good #2 pitcher, if he stalls out at the end then we don’t expect much more than a #3/4 starter.

 

09. Ned Buncombe, SS

2107 Value: 81/90 | Drafted: 2103 (Diamondbacks) – 2nd Round, 39th Overall

Projected Build: 77 Con, 90 Pow, 81 Eye | 87 Spd 91 Def | | FV: 60

           

Buncombe is another guy who is ready to do nothing but face MLB pitching. His development path has been unique to say the least. After spending five years as a non-impact prospect, he is hitting a stair climb in the twilight of his prospect hood.  While in his career window he gets a big boost to his power, which makes an incredibly unique SS. He has the potential to be a 20/20 guy with a gold glove defensive upside. The only concern you have with him is his health, which could end up having long term effects on his career longevity. Either way you are thrilled to have him as your SS who you get to play for a decade plus.

 

10. Aaron Capes, SP

2107 Value: 73/94 | Drafted: 2106 (Angels) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 90 Pow, 94 Mov | FV: 60

 

The only player drafted from the 2106draft to make the top ten is Capes. There is not a lot to review on him as he has not had a progression path set as of yet and could go one of a thousand different ways. His limited time in a farm system did not go as well as some have but he is only 17 so when you take that into account you clearly don’t worry about what he has produced to date.  Time will tell more on this prospect than most of the others. Where he falls on the list next year will be the first marker to note.

 

11. Eduardo Fernandez, SP

2107 Value: 87/95 | Drafted: 2103 (Brewers) – 1st Round, 18th Overall

Projected Build: 89 Con, 80 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 60

 

It’s obvious that he’s a little overrated, but if he were rated something like 84/93 would you really like him? I think so. He should have top notch movement to go along with good control. His ground ball rate is a little low, even for a guy who’ll get into the low 80s for power, so it raises a concern if his home runs will indeed hurt him. However, with a build that he projects out having, it’s not a major concern and he should become a very effective pitcher.

 

12. Josh Olds, 2B

2107 Value: 77/93 | Drafted: 2105 (Padres) – 1st Round, 6th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 83 Pow, 91 Eye | 75 Spd, 90 Def | FV: 60

 

He has one of those sleeper builds. When you look at him right now, there’s nothing overly impressive. Both his contact and power are lagging behind his overall, but when you forecast what he’ll look like down the road, it’s a build that should be very productive. His top notch defense doesn’t hurt his case either. And sure, you’d love for him to be faster and can see how his low health could hinder him, but when he’s on the field he’ll be a dynamic bat and a reliable fielder.

 

13. Nick Varak, SP

2107 Value: 81/93 | Drafted: 2104 (Athletics) – 1st Round, 21st Overall

Projected Build: 92 Con, 82 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 60

 

Doug does a great job of taking pitchers that most of us scoff at on draft day and then getting them on the fast track to the majors. I have to assume that we did the same with Varak. He’s got a control build with a low GB%. That fits the bill of a player that you’d red flag. However, his projected build looks quite good (especially if his movement can at least get even with his control). He could arrive in the majors sometime this season or early next year. If he can keep the home runs in check, this might be a guy that we look back on as an arm that fell too far in the draft.

 

14. Santos Bortillo, SP

2107 Value: 78/90 | Drafted: 2101 (Tigers) – 2nd Round, 32nd Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 78 Pow, 100 Mov | FV: 60

 

I’ll be the first to call bullshit on his movement getting to 100. With Mogul’s sanity checks, it’ll be tough for it to get that high. Which likely means control or power could see a little bit more of a boost. All said, this looks like a pitcher who could put up Ace numbers. So, why is he only #14? His health is lower and that will likely keep him from regularly starting in all 32 games (if ever). He’s more likely to only start in around 25 games each year.

 

15. Joey White, SP

2107 Value: 82/88 | Drafted: 2102 (Nationals) – 3rd Round, 69th Overall

Projected Build: 83 Con, 73 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 55

 

This is a peculiar ranking, but I think I can understand why he’s rated this high. For starters, the file doesn’t understand that he’s about to age over Spring Training. It also suggests that he should be a starter with higher endurance while at the same time it thinks he has good power due to being listed as a RP. However, there are still things to like about White. He hasn’t dropped much when he’s aged in the past, so he could have another two years to progress. He does have a pleasing build to go with a nice ground ball rate. Much like Hecht on BOS, this ranking hinges on him becoming a starter and reeling in 200 innings vs being left as a reliever.

 

16. James MacCammon, SP

2107 Value: 65/94 | Drafted: 2105 (Angels) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 84 Con, 87 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 55

 

MacCammon has had an interesting progression so far. He took a dip in peak that was very promising, but took a large drop in overall after the draft. However, he got back on track for progression this season. Though his build might not be finalized yet, he looks like a power SP with more of his projection promises for him to be a movement monster.  His minor league numbers are not ideal, his home runs this last full season were 1.08 per 9 (which is fine). It’s his poor K:BB ratio that is less than ideal, so it will be interesting to see what he can do this season.  Overall, you like what you see out of him so far and he is progressing into a top of the rotation arm.

 

17. Dan Hoogaboom, SP

2107 Value: 82/93 | Drafted: 2101 (Padres) – 1st Round, 12th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 79 Pow, 100 Mov | FV: 55

 

Like already said, movement doesn’t develop quite what the projection file thinks due to sanity checks. Hoogaboom will still have fantastic movement and could see better than projected control with those sanity checks giving extra points away to different skills. He’s been tough to get a read on about home runs, but if he can keep them around 1.00 per 9, then he’ll be a very good starter.

 

18. Tommy Boutte, CF

2107 Value: 73/89 | Drafted: 2103 (Dodgers) – 3rd Round, 86th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 88 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 55

 

Boutte was a great pickup for Washington. I think he alone is more valuable than what was essentially traded to get him (DH Ron Charles). Boutte is fantastic in the field and will be more than adequate in the batter’s box. I wouldn’t be surprised to see his contact trending upward and seeing him in the top ten next year.

 

19. Jorge Rivera, CF

2107 Value: 77/90 | Drafted: 2103 (Twins) – 1st Round, 1st Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 82 Eye | 88 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 55

 

I think it’s interesting for Rivera to be ranked just behind Boutte. I think most would prefer Rivera, however Boutte may end up just as productive. However, that’s a discussion for a different time.

Rivera should have elite contact to go with great speed and elite defense. That sounds like a top ten prospect. However, he offers little power and even with his speed he cannot stretch many hits into doubles. That speed is also more useful on defense than the bases as he’s probably a ~30 steal candidate rather than a top 50+ steal threat. All said, he’s still quite impressive and will be a prized commodity.

 

20. Ross Entwistle, SP

2107 Value: 73/89 | Drafted: 2103 (Brewers) – 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Projected Build: 88 Con, 74 Pow, 97 Mov | FV: 55

 

He has a great control-movement combo build and won’t be completely devoid of power. Being a lefty scares away a lot of people who would rather settle for a mediocre righty. Entwistle looks like he as the right balance of lower home runs, a good ground ball rate, and movement to keep batters of the base. He’s a keeper.

 

21. Tim Balmer, SP

2107 Value: 82/95 | Drafted: 2103 (Mariners) – 1st Round, 13th Overall

Projected Build: 85 Con, 84 Pow, 93 Mov | FV: 55

               

Balmer has had a wonderful progression as he has developed with consistent jumps with one big one in this past season that has him set for a breakout.  While his vitals and pitches have not been given the jumps one might like at 21, he still has a few years to grow.  His superior stats in high school have somewhat continued in the MiLB system.  His home runs have gone up, which could be an issue and his walks tend to be a bit high. If he can get them under control, you are looking at a top of the rotation arm.

 

22. Bob Ulriksen, SP

2107 Value: 80/94 | Drafted: 2104 (Yankees) – 1st Round, 10th Overall

Projected Build: 91 Con, 70 Pow, 95 Mov | FV: 55

               

Ulriksen has had a steady upward trending progression since he has been drafted which, if it continues, could make him a very good pitcher.  He had very good high school stats and his numbers so far in the minors have been hot and cold. He isn’t giving up homeruns, but his OBA is quiet high and his WHIP is even higher.  While none of this spells doom on him, he will need to get those under control to be the top end of the rotation arm that he could be. If he was put in front of a good defensive infield that might be all he needs to reach his full potential.

 

23. Matthew Toland, SP

2107 Value: 68/93 | Drafted: 2106 (Blue Jays) – 1st Round, 5th Overall

Projected Build: 82 Con, 94 Pow, 91 Mov | FV: 55

               

As we look at his career scouting, Toland has been progressing nicely. His peak is remaining constant and his overall is steadily increasing is a good sign. With only one season in the MiLB system at Single-A, his numbers in High school and college are superb for a power pitcher, whereas his first season in A-ball was not as good (it was not disheartening either).  Power pitchers are feast or famine and it will be interesting to monitor which he turns into. He will either be a high end Ace, or a lowly long reliever on a rebuilder.

 

24. Mike Alexis, RF

2107 Value: 68/90 | Drafted: 2106 (White Sox) – 1st Round, 4th Overall

Projected Build: 92 Con, 82 Pow, 82 Eye | 76 Spd, 85 Def | FV: 50

 

Alexis is a projectable outfielder who has the look of a 2-hole hitter. I do worry that his bat will be less than inspiring, but with vitals all above his overall and an arm to play RF there’s a lot to like about him. He should hit for a nice average and in the least hit for doubles power. With solid defense, he’ll be fine at either corner spot.

 

25. Ben Moore, RF

2107 Value: 74/92 | Drafted: 2105 (Mariners) – 2nd Round, 45th Overall

Projected Build: 86 Con, 84 Pow, 88 Eye | 74 Spd, 88 Def | FV: 50

 

He has one of those interesting do-a –little-bit-o-everything builds. He won’t wow you with any one skills at the plate, but he should hit for a decent average, a fair amount of power, and draw walks when he isn’t doing either of the former. With good enough defense at either corner spot, he should fit into an everyday role. Though, in the end, he’s a mzy prospect, so fuck that guy (he should be a 20-grade prospect).