However, after perusing through each player, that's not the case at all. It certainly is an all-in offer from Washington and nearly clears them of any prospect with promise or hope (as well as next year's picks), but that doesn't mean that the Mets and Decker got away with stealing double-digit first round values. Let's take a look...
SP Jim Luper: Making the ascension to starter goes a long way in his value. As a reliever, I just don't really care too much about him. Sure he'd have a nice enough control/movement combo with some upside. However, as a reliever I don't see him as anything significantly more valuable than what I can find in the 3rd or 4th round. As a starter, I see a very good, reliable pitcher. I don't see an Ace (like some think). He's already jumped this year and is pre-window, so he's probably likely to be about 84/88 next Spring Training. He hasn't taken much of a peak hit when he's aged, so I can see him having two more years to develop. I could see him teasing 90s vitals, but upper 80s to low 90s control and movement just isn't quite Ace material in FCM.
Verdict: Mid 1st Value
SP Dusty Wilson: He has not jumped yet this season, is pre-window, and fell from a 93 peak to a 90 peak last off-season. So, I feel pretty good about saying he'll peak out at age 23. And that's just not enough time for his control to be good enough for the rotation. I'd liken him to my own Bret Ryskina - Good movement and mediocre control. Good enough for a MLB role and maybe even spot start, but not a guy that you'd want to rely on.
Verdict: Mid 3rd Value
SP Dave Blasingame: I totally get why Peter took him in the draft four seasons ago. He was 16 and who knows what kind of magic Mogul might work on him. Well, fast-forward to age 19 and his control still looks like complete shit. If a guy like this were in the draft, he'd undoubtedly fall very far and would be someone's unlucky auto-pick. Maybe the sanity checks save him and he starts seeing some real progress in control, but I still him praying his control gets to 70+ and he can be a bullpen piece for a few years.
Verdict: 4th Round Value
SP Daniel Cory: He has a pretty nice build. Also nice is that he's only dropped a few points when he's aged. He's already jumped this year and clearly still pre-window, however, I can see him still developing for another five or six years. It's tough to say exactly how good I think he'll be, but if you'd like his build as a 19-year-old pitcher, then I think it's tough not to like him a lot.
Verdict: Late 1st Value
OF T.J. Sear: It's a little intriguing that he hasn't jumped this year yet and only fell from a 94 to 93 peak last off-season, though I still have a hard time placing his value. I certainly don't see him sticking in CF, but I can see him having a bat that doesn't do any one thing great, but can do a little of everything.
Verdict: Mid 2nd Value
DH Jeff Harris: For a 78 overall, I'd expect him to look a lot better than he does. He looks like what I'd expect from a low 70s overall and it'd be great if he could actually play a position. I guess he could play 1B, but he doesn't look like enough of a threat there and could likely be easily replaced by someone better.
Verdict: 4th Round Value
C Marc Thibodeaux: I think he's a real prize prospect. A switch hitting catcher, who could start to see his contact distance itself from his power. He's also quite solid defensively. Some may like power from the catcher spot, but if he can hit for a high average, he'll still produce well in the batter's box.
Verdict: Mid 1st Value
1B Elmer Candalaria: He just had a jump for Decker! ... And I'm still not sold on him. I'm not seeing the power numbers that I'd like to see from a 1B and I question his contact. He's one of those very low K bats and I worry that he'll always be a guy who underperforms. But, he's still a lefty and even with four or five point aging drops, he should have a decent amount of time left to develop.
Verdict: Early 2nd Value
1B Gabriel Paneda: With his low contact and as drastic of splits that he has, you'd have a tough time getting me to buy into him being a 1st rounder. While he is very young (and you'd expect his power to develop), I seriously question whether his contact will be good enough for the rest of it to matter.
Verdict: Mid 2nd Value
OF Nat Hanson: It looks like he's already jumped for Decker! Though he doesn't possess that big time stolen base speed, he still has that prototypical CF build. His speed and defense will certainly be good enough to roam central and it's a no-brainer that his contact will shoot up there.
Verdict: Late 1st Value
IF Franklin Marshall: I get the love for his vroom, but his poor fielding concerns me (and yes, that considering what his speed will do for his opportunities) and that's probably why he fell as late as he did being a speedster. Personally, I'd slide him over to 2B, where he'll see less opportunities to boot. His speed and (likely) contact bat will still play well over there.
Verdict: Late 2nd Value
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So, all-in-all, here's what I figure Decker's haul value was:
1st Round: Five (Includes WAS 1st)
2nd Round: Four
3rd Round: Two (Includes WAS 2nd)
4th Round: Three (Includes WAS 3rd)
5th Round One (Includes WAS 4th)
So, out of 15 pieces, I think Decker got five good pieces, four solid ones, and then six pieces that no one should give a shit about. Nine valuable pieces sounds about right for two pre-arb under-25 players who have some elite vitals!
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